Posted on 04/21/2020 6:28:51 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
50% of Swedes are working from home and traffic and travel is down 90%. All bar/restaurant service being table service only with tables socially distanced. And with international travel to China first discouraged Feb 17, then increasingly restrictive 6-14 Mar, travel within EU Mar 17 and within Sweden Mar 19. The elderly and nursing homes quarantined over a month, schools other than elementary closed for a similar length of time. And over 50% of households being single.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Sweden
The flaw in their plan was to allow primary school children to attend class even if their parent was home sick. But to keep a child home, risked a referral to social services. like other nations, they’ve had a problem with nursing home infections.
The deaths may be lower because of non-urban density, being 25 people per square Kilometer, as opposed to ten times that in Italy and the UK. But their death rate is 118 per million, as opposed to 13 in Finland and 42 in Germany.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-1000
That was big scary chart about case fatality and case recoveries. You cannot or will not separate infections from cases. Infections being anyone having the virus at anytime while cases are only the ones reported for a positive test. The total number of infections is much higher then the number of cases. Therefore the infection fatality rate is orders of magnitude lower than the case fatality rate. But keep plugging away with the big scary charts that help the hype.
Spain and Italy’s outbreaks were in densely populated areas - for instance Sicily and Granada have far fewer deaths - Sicily has 230 in total.
Belgium is a small, densely packed country - like the Netherlands.
Sweden has one densely packed area - the Oresund area which is greater Copenhagen, and has 4 million people.
Strangely enough the majority of deaths are in Stockholm - 1022 deaths out of a population of 2.5 million.
I don’t know enough about the Stockholm area to understand that difference
What utter nonsense. The virus is not killing them at ten times the mortality rate of other countries. It does not have a mind of it’s own and say you did something different so I’m gonna kill you 10 times more. When this all shakes out the death rate will be less than 1% worldwide. About an average really bad flu.
It seems I need to clarify my previous post.
AFAIK, you’re quite right about everything you said about the death rate, total deaths, spreading out, etc.
What I was trying to say is that the experts (esp. the modellers) calculate the so-called CFR (Case-fatality-rate)by plugging known data into some algorithm. The CFR was scarry-high a couple of months ago, especially for people in my cohort. That could have meant as many as 2.4 million deaths in the USA alone, over the course of the epidemic. However, if new data emerges to show that there have been many more cases, then the estimated CFR would decline proportionally. If there have already been 50 times as many cases as thought, that would reduce the CFR to something comparable with the seasonal flu. Much less dangerous, IOW.
A much lower CFR would be great news for everyone. For my cohort, it would mean we’re less likely to die from catching the CCP virus. For working-age people, it would mean a quick return to a normal economy.
Sweden is following a bit of a lockdown - people are self quarantining. And in any case they keep a lot of personal space. It’s not comparable to the USA or Italy
dp — recoveries at home are registered as well as recoveries in hospitals
So I see that Sweden has only 15,000 cases of COVID.
But, 1,765 people have died in Sweden.
Why is the death rate in Sweden at 12%?
Sweden’s death rate per 1 million people is 175.
USA death rate per 1 million people is 137.
Where are you less likely to die from covid?
Thanks
The antibody tests are very new and their accuracy is all over the board.
The virus will burn out on its own before enough quality kits exist to test on that scale.
“Therefore the infection fatality rate is orders of magnitude lower than the case fatality rate”
Thanks for the links to data to support your point.
(None)
NYC has 14,427 Covid deaths already which is .16% of the population of 9,000,000. This is the lowest possible infection mortality rate assuming every single person in NYC is infected.
243,047 people have been tested and 132,467 tested positive,
Only people with symptoms are being tested in NYC and only 54% of those with symptoms are positive. The rate of infection for those without symptoms is obviously lower than the rate of infection in those with symptoms of the disease.
If 54% of the entire city is infected (implausibly high) then the infection fatality rate is .30% (.16%/.54)
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-data-map-04202020-1.pdf
The quoted death rate of .1% for seasonal flu is the number of deaths over the number of SYMPTOMATIC flu cases. Those without symptoms are not part of the denominator. It is estimated (see link below) that 75% of regular flu cases show no symptoms. This brings the infection fatality rate for regular flu from .1% to .025% if you count infected people instead of just symptomatic people. Covid19 is at least 10 times deadlier than the flu, you can distort the numbers however you want, you can believe whatever you want, but no one can make a plausible argument that Covid19 isn’t 10 times deadlier than the seasonal flu, no matter how hard they try.
https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/three-quarters-of-people-with-flu-have-no-symptoms/
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
Overnight, Sweden deaths per million rocketed to 192, with 172 new deaths reported at this writing. Additionally, Sweden is behind the curve, with projected peak health resources use and deaths occurring approximately May 17-19. IHMA Sweden and Worldometers
For comparison, Scandanavia deaths per million:
Sweden 192
Norway 34
Finland 27
Okay, I see what you were saying. I was reacting to your line about a higher death rate causing more deaths and making a narrow point about that not necessarily being the case in the long run.
As I said the infection fatality rate is orders of magnitude lower than the case fatality rate. Even with your twisted logic you came to the same conclusion.
“Only people with symptoms are being tested in NYC and only 54% of those with symptoms are positive. The rate of infection for those without symptoms is obviously lower than the rate of infection in those with symptoms of the disease.”
So you say people without symptoms are not being tested then you go on to use the negative test results of those with symptoms to extrapolate the number those who are asymptomatic. Can you grasp the fallacy of your argument? Extrapolating your logic would mean that if 100% of those tested were positive for Corona then there would be ZERO asymptomatic infections. Since the two numbers are reciprocal so that 54% positive means 46% negative then 100% positive means 0% negative.
Then you extrapolate the positive test rate of those with symptoms onto the entire population which is even worse logic.
“What?!
I not only have to read the article but also give a report on it to the class?”
Tongue-in-cheek—just to let members know there are some readers who are even lazier!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.