Coronavirus threatens China's Belt and Road Initiative. What happens when it wants half a trillion dollars back?

NAIROBI, Kenya — When Chinese engineers flew home in January for the Lunar New Year, few in Africa would have imagined that coronavirus outbreak was about to ground planes, upend supply lines and freeze work on dozens of Chinese-built roads, railways, ports and power stations.

Many of the engineers haven’t returned. Construction sites fell silent. And now the COVID-19 pandemic has unleashed a global recession that threatens the colossal international loan program that is a symbol of China’s growing prestige and a centerpiece of President Xi Jinping’s reign.

The Belt and Road Initiative — China’s effort to finance nearly half a trillion dollars in new infrastructure across Asia, Africa, Europe and Latin America — took flight during a period of global expansion and easy travel that has now slammed into a sober reckoning.

Beijing faces mounting calls to reschedule loans for shipping hubs, electrical plants and transport links that look unsustainable as economies struggle and globalization slows. The projects’ reliance on Chinese workers could also draw greater opposition from local populations worried about fresh waves of coronavirus infections.

No major contracts have been canceled due to the pandemic, and the initiative is too important to Xi to be shelved. But seven years after the Chinese leader unveiled his vision of a modern Silk Road connecting continents, the future of travel and trade is uncertain. Analysts say the most ambitious international building spree since the Marshall Plan could be scaled down and refocused toward safer investments.

Chinese state media have already begun trumpeting less costly global initiatives focused on technology and health care — moves that could further intensify China’s geopolitical tug of war with the U.S.

“The ultimate test of the BRI was always going to come when the global economy became less forgiving, and we’re in that environment now,”

RE: They’ll have as much success collecting the debt as the Western countries did.

China is not stupid. They know they are dealing with corrupt governments who need the money. They are ultimately not after the money to be repaid but the COLLATERAL put up by these corrupt leaders -- Ports, railroads, control of resources, shipping lanes, etc.

There is a military base operated by the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), located in Djibouti in the Horn of Africa. The facility is expected to significantly increase China's power projection capabilities in the Horn of Africa and the Indian Ocean.

And we will torch another $8 trillion for the COVID-19 Panic.

Healthy people under age 65 have the same death risk from COVID that they have from seasonal influenza.

If we had spent $100 billion on special protections for elderly and infirm Americans, we would have saved thousands of lives, and the rest of our population would now have herd immunity.

Total, freaking, panic, insanity!

There are so many things wrong with that Business Insider report, I do not know where to start.

First, the report is written by a Business Insider “science” writer.

She compared two sets of CDC data that cannot be compared.

The “final” Influenza death data - around 0.1% (almost 0.2% in 2018) - is derived from mathematical models that take around 6 months to process.

Her numbers for COVID are based on raw data - she divides the current number of COVID deaths by the current number of confirmed infections.

If she calculated the Influenza death rate with the influenza raw data, she would get the same cockeyed results that she got with the COVID raw data.

Until the CDC publishes an estimate of how many people were infected with COVID, it is impossible to calculate a final Case Fatality Rate.

My own ball park estimate is 30-35 million COVID infections, based on the nearly 18 million tests performed thus far. The antibody test numbers (for recovered victims) were still not being published the last time I checked, about 4 days ago. Without the antibody numbers, there is no way to make a final estimate of total infections.

Based on my 30 million estimate - which is completely reasonable - the CFA for COVID is 0.4%, roughly twice as high as influenza in 2018.

In addition, the author says nothing about the fraudulent counting method for COVID deaths.

Presumed COVID deaths are still being counted as confirmed deaths.

And, 100% of the people who die “with” COVID are classified as COVID fatalities.

NOTHING like that happens when the CDC counts influenza deaths.

COVID-19 is a common cold virus.

It can be very dangerous for the elderly and the infirm.

For healthy people under age 65, it is just a cold - sometimes severe, sometimes with no symptoms at all.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.