Posted on 10/07/2020 3:40:24 PM PDT by Kaslin
Sorry about letting this fall through the crack folks. We all know that the polling is looking nutty. I mean, Joe Biden is ahead of Donald Trump by 10-17 points in some of these laughable polls. You can’t be ahead by that much and be struggling in Miami-Dade County. You can’t be up that much and with some recent polls showing Trump and Biden are tied in Michigan. When Michael Moore is worried, noting the enthusiasm gap and the race tightening in his home state, you know the race isn’t a lock for Biden. The former VP has his work cut out for him in Pennsylvania as well. And what about the GOP samples. In some of these polls, the sample size is D+10. We’re not going to have that type of electorate in less than a month’s time.
Conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh zeroed-in on how these pollsters are picking their GOP samples. To no one’s shock, they’re skewing these surveys by overloading it with suburban Republican voters who are more hostile to Trump. And of course, they averse to sampling rural Republicans who are die-hard Trump supporters. In essence, the ‘R-split’ are pretty much soft Democrats at this point, as suburban voters are notoriously squishy with zero backbone.
Author Larry Schweikart had a thread as he listened to Limbaugh elaborate on what a pollster told him about how this funny business is working out from his September 28 broadcast. Why are they doing this? Well, Rush said it’s simple: the fake news press will provide all the cover.
1) @rushlimbaugh talking about a pollster who sent a note to a friend of his explaining what's happening.
*The pollsters are trying to get "reasonable" R/D splits . . . BUT
*They are picking suburban Rs vs. rural Rs, which are biased against Trump; & they are sampling fewer. . .— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) September 28, 2020
1) contd. . . zip codes with blue-collar Trump-type DemoKKKrat voters.
2) In this way, they can "claim" to have legit D/R splits (which as we know are STILL about +5 to +9 D), but in fact they are getting the most Trump-hostile Rs and eliminating the most Trump-friendly Ds.— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) September 28, 2020
3) This is ON TOP of the fact that they are asking for the "youngest voter in the home," that they still have not adjusted for the shortfall in 18-24 year olds, and they are still, I think mis-counting blacks.
4) Now, Rush also said that the reason they think they can . . .— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) September 28, 2020
4) contd . . . get away with this a second time is that they believe the Hoax News media will cover for them; that if they blow it badly again, no one will call them to account (among the "bigs"); and so they are safe in mis-polling a second time.— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) September 28, 2020
And he is correct.
Then yet another AAPOR election flop autopsy whitewash report will be generated by next January - as in 2016-2017 - and it will receive somber coverage then promptly buried.— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) September 28, 2020
At the time, Rasmussen Reports’ Twitter account responded, “Yet another AAPOR [American Association for Public Opinion Research] election flop autopsy whitewash report will be generated by next January - as in 2016-2017 - and it will receive somber coverage then promptly buried.”
Look, again, there’s no middle. Either the pollsters are right this time and we’re wrong or the opposite is true. If it’s the latter, Lord help us all, as it’ll be a 1980 election scenario, but one where Biden wins BIG. If not, it’s another Electoral College landslide for Trump, who will probably clinch over 300 EC votes again. We’ll see.
I thought Mondale was ahead during the summer?
I would be a lot more confident if the Rasmussen Poll had not had Biden at 12 over Trump. Todays approval was down to 44. I’m hoping they just got some weird blip in their numbers and everything will be better next week. The other polls are full of crap. Who would trust a Fox poll or a CNN poll?
Multiple parades on weekends for the Trump Train here in Ohio.
10-4. Truckers for Trump had 172 vehicles (42 semis) in Champaign County
Jackson county had 50.
Greene county had another. There is no press coverage because they said it wouldn’t be fair to Joe Biden campaign.
Polling is there to provide cover for the cheating ballots that they plan to bring in.
I don’t know. Suburban voters in even Massachusetts are big on Trump.
“When they are trying to figure out the winner, protesters and rioters, Antifa and BLM, will cause havoc. This is the plan, orchestrated by Obama, Soros and NeverTrumpers.”
To what purpose?
I would not trust any poll unless I did a deep dive in the data and the methodology—_deep_ dive.
At this point I treat them all as evil leftist propaganda—and ignore all of them. It is not worth my time to rebut all the them—spent too much effort doing that in 2016.
Once again, the polls will be shown to be lies. This election be 2016 redux.
The polls will tighten right before the election so they can claim they were within the margin of error. Happens every election.
Rasmussen's Presidential approval poll seems to go up and down. If President Trump is below 50%, wait a week and he'll be back over 50%; the opposite is also true. I don't know why that happens, but it happens on a regular basis.
Let’s see. Trump supporters are being openly assaulted and attacked every day. I’m thinking that this might cause a Trump supporter to NOT tell a complete stranger that he’s a Trump supporter.
Here’s the weird blip you were looking for.
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People’s Pundit pollster said that you don’t go from +1 to -12 like Rasmussen did so quickly from changing opinion. Public opinion doesn’t work like that. He thinks because of the covid virus its possible Rasmussen hit “response bias” in the Rasmussen poll. “Response bias is when voters and their party do not want to participate in polls and surveys because there is bad news for their guy. He wasn’t getting accurate people to tell you the truth.”
Pollsters are having a very hard time polling this year. Response rates are down to 1% at Trafalgar. And republicans are 5 times more likely to say no to polls.
_______________________________
IBD/TIPPS
Trafalgar
Democracy Initiative are all high quality polls that got 2016 and 2018 right.
Upon hearing that the details on the Rasmussen polls are behind a paywall, I find them less trustworthy now.
Here is the deal, there is simply NO WAY both the NBA finals and the NFL would have suffered such a catastrophic collapse in their TV ratings if President Trump were behind in the polls.
After all, it was President Trump who called on Americans to boycott NBA NFL games over their disrespect for the flag. As it turns out, most Americans agreed with him.
Slow Joe and the Dems strongly took a knee with the overpaid BLM backing millionaires of pro sports.
It’s impossible for Trump to be behind by what was it, 16 points from CNN, even while most Americans show they agree with him, and huge numbers show up for Trump’s rallies even as Slow Joe struggles to get even 20 people to attend any rally of his.
Posted on 10/7/2020, 4:38:47 PM by SmokingJoe
OK, so the they are sampling suburban Repubs ... whatever.
They are Repubs, and if a significant amount of Repubs whoever they are are going to vote for Biden, then Trump is sunk and the polls are more accurate then we all believe.
We know that there are hardly any Dems out there who are going to vote for Trump, so add it up.
Lets for a moment say that the percentage of Repubs (Suburban vs. Rural) is 25% to 75%, then if Trump is losing say 10% - 15% of the Suburban Repubs, that is easily enough votes to give Biden a big win in Nov.
Now I am really depressed.
Here is the deal, there is simply NO WAY both the NBA finals and the NFL would have suffered such a catastrophic collapse in their TV ratings if President Trump were behind in the polls.
After all, it was President Trump who called on Americans to boycott NBA NFL games over their disrespect for the flag. As it turns out, most Americans agreed with him.
Slow Joe and the Dems strongly took a knee with the overpaid BLM backing millionaires of pro sports.
It’s impossible for Trump to be behind by what was it, 16 points from CNN, even while most Americans show they agree with him, and huge numbers show up for Trump’s rallies even as Slow Joe struggles to get even 20 people to attend any rally of his.
Posted on 10/7/2020, 4:38:47 PM by SmokingJoe
Being caught performing political polling should be punishable by a minimum of 5 years in prison without possibility for parole.
2nd offense 20 years.
I would add, “Posting bad polls on sites like FR and getting paid to do so, earns the same jail sentences if found guilty.”
Double the penalties if a foreign government or foreign agent paid the troll to post the dishonest poll, posing as news.
I understand how frustrated people are feeling seeing these sudden dramatic drops in a bunch of polls. But, they are not accurately measuring how voters would vote if the election was held today. Because of the hysteria the media has engaged in over the last week....first the SC nomination, then the debate, then covid it is having a temporary negative effect on many polls.
But, as I mentioned above, voters do not change their opinion suddenly. These polls are the result of polling errors probably caused by the increased difficulty pollsters are having getting voters, particularly Trump supporters, to participate in polls. TRUMP HAS NOT LOST ANY SUPPORT.
Studies have shown that 11% of republicans, 10% of independents and 5% of democrats were not willing to disclose who they planned to vote for. The majority of those voters are going to be Trump voters. He actually has a lot of crossover voting.
I pray you are right, but here in NH I am seeing a big swing to Biden these days.
People are putting his signs in their yards like crazy, not just signs on the side of a lonely road no one lives on.
I just don’t see any enthusiasm for him up here at all these days.
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