RE: Dr. Helmut Norpoth’s election model is based on turnout during the primaries, produces the correct result for 25 out of the 27 presidential elections that featured primaries, and predicts a red wave in 2020
I’m just curious as to which two elections he missed.
Here’s the last 27 Presidential elections:
2016 Trump-Hillary
2012 Obama-Romney
2008 Obama-McCain
2004 Bush-Kerry
2000 Bush-Gore
1996 Clinton-Dole
1992 Clinton-Bush
1988 Bush-Dukakis
1984 Reagan-Mondale
1980 Reagan-Carter
1976 Carter-Ford
1972 Nixon-McGovern
1968 Nixon-Humphrey
1964 LBJ-Goldwater
1960 JFK-Nixon
1956 Eisenhower-Stevenson
1952 Eisenhower-Stevenson
1948 Truman-Dewey
1944 FDR-Dewey
1940 FDR-Willkie
1936 FDR-Landon
1932 FDR-Hoover
1928 Hoover-Smith
1924 Coolidge-Davis
1920 Harding-Cox
1916 Wilson-Hughes
1912 Wilson-Roosevelt
1908 Taft-Bryant
So, which ones did Dr. Norpoth’s model miss?
I went looking and found this from Aug. 23, 2020,:
https://www.kwtx.com/2020/08/24/prolific-elections-predictor-trump-wins-2020-in-a-landslide/
it says:
“Norpoth was one of a handful of pollsters who correctly predicted Trump’s victory in 2016, and his Primary Model has predicted five of the six presidential elections since 1996. When applied to previous elections, the model correctly predicted 25 of the last 27 elections, missing only the 2000 election in which George W. Bush defeated Al Gore and the 1960 election in which John F. Kennedy defeated Richard Nixon.”
We suspect the 1960 election was stolen through Chicago vote fraud. We know 520 votes swung Florida. Those were two unusual events.
I’ll go with his prediction, although I don’t think Trump’ll get NY.