Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The late-blooming 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is making up for lost time. A tropical system has developed in the Central Caribbean Sea. This storm system is forecast to threaten continental U.S. interests next week. While the tropical wave passed south of a key geographic area known as Hebert's Box #1, it will very likely pass through Hebert's Box #2. These boxes are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida. For more information about Hebert's Boxes, see Hebert Box. See graphic below which illustrated the Hebert's Boxes.
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Hebert's Boxes
Things will be getting crazy.I moved to my daughter’s house,her husband is there in Fl.lineman.I will be staying here for a few da ys .
I have been watching Ryan Hall. He is good.
Breaches will be like other real estate. Location, location, location. The Sanibel causeway is the aorta. Past there, truck access to or close to Tarpon Bay road spells huge implications for Sanibel’s reconstruction. Fork trucks for survival and infrastructure support. They might be able to free-wheel the causeway, but the heavies, Cats, trackhoes, and pans HAVE to ride across on low boy trailers.
My money says Captiva will be pier/runway access only, like North Captiva,for an unknown but significant period.
He has a generator too but suspects the power will go out. Stinks when you work from home.
That would be great, my kids lost power on Sugarloaf for several hours its back on now.They lost a boat that’s now on the bottom.
😏
Is there verification of a 15 foot surge on Sanibel that’s huge.!
It needs it bad we need a cat 6 as well.
If it’s Geraldo reporting, cheer for the hurricane.
I am in the cone.
Cam 5 on Sanibel may be out, but Mesonet TS755, about halfway between Tarpon Bay Road and Redfish Pass, recorded a 98 mph gust at 1717 UTC, a full hour after all the other Sanibel sensors dropped offline.
Looks like the official landfall (center of eye) will probably be declared at the Port Boca Grande bridge entry to Port Charlotte harbor. Track showing right on to Kissimmee. Track is showing hitting the Atlantic at Daytona Beach and then beginning to go true north instead of the 15 to 20 degrees NNE it has currently been tracking.
So you think the bridge over Blind Pass will go byebye?
Sure. It was a memorable storm for my family personally.
My brother’s son-in-law works for COMED here in N. Illinois. I’ll have to ask him if he got sent to Florida to help out. I know COMED has sent equipment and personnel to Florida.
Oh my goodness.
023
WTNT34 KNHC 281758
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
...IAN CAUSING CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
The Hurricane Warning and the Storm Surge Warning for the Dry
Tortugas has been discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/281758.shtml
The Sanibel 15+ foot surge figure is personally estimated, from a “second floor mounted camera” at an unknown location on the island, that was taking occasional wavetops and constant foam.
A story runs about 10 feet tall in commercial construction, and I assume they mounted it at eyelevel, not floor level, hence 15 feet. “Plus” comes from the unknown location, above sea level by an unknown amount. Minus wave heigth... noting the general location of two story buildings, usually nearer the coast than Periwinkle Way, which is around a 20 meter ASL average elevation.
So the eye just passed over Ft Myers. And still at 155 mph. Not good.
That’s what I tell one of my neighbors who loves to go there. It’s not just Old Sanibel either. It’s Old Florida. The place looks nothing like it did when I was a child. Pockets here and there maybe, but not really. Old Florida was pretty cool. Some might even call it “Dreamville.”
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