Denying Russia’s Only Strategy for Success

ISW ^ | March 27, 2024 | By Nataliya Bugayova and Frederick W. Kagan

[Chad C. Mulligan]

Russia cannot defeat Ukraine or the West - and will likely lose - if the West mobilizes its resources to resist the Kremlin. The West’s existing and latent capability dwarfs that of Russia. The combined gross domestic product (GDP) of NATO countries, non-NATO European Union states, and our Asian allies is over $63 trillion.[1] The Russian GDP is on the close order of $1.9 trillion.[2] Iran and North Korea add little in terms of materiel support. China is enabling Russia, but it is not mobilized on behalf of Russia and is unlikely to do so.[3] If we lean in and surge, Russia loses.

The notion that the war is unwinnable because of Russia’s dominance is a Russian information operation, which gives us a glimpse of the Kremlin’s real strategy and only real hope of success. The Kremlin must get the United States to the sidelines, allowing Russia to fight Ukraine in isolation and then proceed to Moscow’s next targets, which Russia will also seek to isolate. The Kremlin needs the United States to choose inaction and embrace the false inevitability that Russia will prevail in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin’s center of gravity is his ability to shape the will and decisions of the West, Ukraine, and Russia itself. The Russian strategy that matters most, therefore, is not Moscow’s warfighting strategy, but rather the Kremlin’s strategy to cause us to see the world as it wishes us to see it and make decisions in that Kremlin-generated alternative reality that will allow Russia to win in the real world.

[Kazan]

It's Ukraine that repeatedly committed war crimes for a DECADE. It has 1) Targeted civilians in Donetsk 2) Used civilians as human shields 3) Shelled a nuclear power plant and 4) Has target and murdered Russian civilians.

Zelensky has imprisoned opposition leaders, shutdown opposition parties, imprisoned and murder dissidents like American citizen Gonzalo Lira, shutdown opposition media outlets and torn down churches.

This war was a complete result of our meddling in Ukraine and illegal coup we fomented in 2014.

Take your lies and shove them.

[tlozo]

not like we haven’t actually tried that before..

Yup, we invaded a country recently for territorial annexation like Russia. NOT

[tlozo]

It's Ukraine that repeatedly committed war crimes for a DECADE. It has 1) Targeted civilians in Donetsk

Completely discredited Russian propaganda by the UN.

14,000 is the number of the total number of casualties the war in Donbass, killed by both parties between 2014 and 2021. 10,900 of them were soldiers. Civilian victims were between 3,400 and 3,500

On January 27, 2022, the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights released its most recent estimate of the victims of the Donbass conflict from 2014 to December 31, 2021

According to the U.N., 10,900 victims were soldiers, of which 4,400 were Ukrainians and 6,500 pro-Russian combatants of or on behalf of the separatist pseudo-republics. Civilian victims were between 3,400 and 3,500.

https://ukraine.un.org/sites/default/files/2022-02/Conflict-related%20civilian%20casualties%20as%20of%2031%20December%202021%20%28rev%2027%20January%202022%29%20corr%20EN_0.pdf

[bert]

Unwittingly and most likely unknowingly, you have morphed into a terrorist aider and abettor.

The Russia you love and know and support has in a weakened fashion turned to Iran for support. Iran is in trouble in Gaza where Hamas is being destroyed. Iran is in trouble in Syria where it’s leadership is being wiped out by Israeli air power that brilliantly and very successfully attacks in spite of the hapless Russian air defense systems.

Iran called Russia to fly air cover in Syria and to move actual boots on the ground to the Syrian Golan Heights.

Russia in Syria is in direct support of the Hamas and Hezbollah terrorists attacking Israel.

As a fervent Russia supporter you and others here have morphed by events into a terrorist supporter, aider and abettor.

Shame on you. Shame, shame, shame

[tlozo]

It’s money and center of effort that should be devoted to maritime defense.

To deter China? Who is watching the worlds reaction to Russian annexation of Ukraine land?

[Monterrosa-24]

Russia is also tied to Hamas by public meetings and proclamations. Hamas, Iran, and North Korea are Moscow’s steadfast allies.

[canuck_conservative]

Your entire post is nothing but Russian lies & propaganda

Yet another subtle sign that Russia must be losing! LOL

[Alter Kaker]

prove he is an “Kremlin apparatchik” ..whatever that may be-

He is a paid commentator for RT, the Russian-government's English language propaganda channel. He literally cashes checks from the Russian government. What more do you need?

Unsurprisingly, he has parroted the Russian government's official line on Ukraine and other matters, including repeatedly claiming that Ukraine was about to collapse - famously he said at the start of the war that Ukraine would collapse within 24 hours. It's sad to see a retired US military official support America's enemies for money but unfortunately there have been other such cases (although not many).

[Kazan]

Sure, no globalist agenda in Ukraine. Hunter didn't get his phony job through a Ukrainian oligarch there. George Soros wasn't making a fortune there. Nor were the Clintons.

Why the hell do you think you're fooling?

[Kazan]

EVERYTNING you post is Biden regime, Trudeau regime and Deep State propaganda.

Admit it, you're a descent of a Nazi that escaped to Canada after WW II.

[Apparatchik]

...repeatedly committed war crimes for a DECADE. It has 1) Targeted civilians in Donetsk 2) Used civilians as human shields 3) Shelled a nuclear power plant and 4) Has target and murdered... civilians.

...has imprisoned opposition leaders, shutdown opposition parties, imprisoned and murder dissidents.. shutdown opposition media outlets...

...meddling in Ukraine...

Vat Putin doink?

[rxh4n1]

“Nope, Russia needs to be kicked out of Ukraine first”

One more time, you and what army? Ukraine hasn’t got the strength to drive Russia on its own. That’s your wish, get NATO (the USA) to do it. You sit safe and sound in a country that will hardly lift a finger if there was a war and push for others to fight.

[ANKE69]

Why don’t you and your big mouth go and and kick some Russian ass???
What is it with all the big,fearless, keyboard “know it all” Zelensky FReepers??
The dancing gay fool is still begging for volunteers to fight his war and not 1 FReeper is taking the bait??? WHY????

[Kazan]

Collapse Of Pervomaiske And Heorhiivka Is Near l Two Ukrainian Villages Are About To Fall

[Kazan]

Is that you, Marcus? Or are you Marcus’s gay lover?

[Apparatchik]

No it’s not. And you are a childish retard.

[Kazan]

So, says the Zeeptard that uses doink as an insult.

[bert]

Total unabridged unhinged isolationist balderdascious globalist Boogieman drivel

[mo]

“annexation” implies “without permission”

As I recall -the parts of the Ukraine “annexed” by Russia actually voted for it.

https://www.npr.org/2022/09/27/1125322026/russia-ukraine-referendums

[mo]

ya got a link for that “paid commentator” assertion?

from what appears to be out there he appears to be a fairly accurate military analyst-who seems to be about proven right.

How can that be “support for American enemies”?