Free Republic

Russian blogger:

Upon his return from Moscow, Lukashenko fired the head of his General Staff. The reason became known:

Alexander Lukashenko, after returning from Moscow, where he had many hours of negotiations with Vladimir Putin (in the presence of generals Shoigu and Gerasimov), fired the head of his General Staff, Viktor Gulevich. The news did not cause a resonance in our segment of the Internet, but in vain.

According to our information, Lukashenko met with Viktor Gulevich and Viktor Khrenin (Minister of Defense) in Minsk. He provided a plan for a possible attack on the Suwalki Gap, which was discussed in Moscow.( https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4042550/posts?page=6349#6349 ) Let us remind you that Lukashenko has not yet given final consent to participate in this story. But Gulevich completely refused to carry out such an order and asked for his resignation. The conversation ended in a raised tone, but Gulevich said that even under the threat of prison he would not enter the war. For which he was fired on the same day.

It is worth noting here that Belarus is a small country, and such experienced personnel as Gulevich should not be wasted. In any case, we will not be surprised if Gulevich emerges in a different position tomorrow. As sources say, Lukashenko calmly accepted the resignation, because he himself was not delighted with the proposal of his Moscow comrades, but had to show Gulevich his place.

https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4074

Gulevich is right: Lukashenko cannot trust his army to follow orders to attack NATO.

Russian blogger:

A few words about the new government

The composition of the new government is currently being discussed with all its might, and this is really important, despite the fact that many issues are supervised directly by the Kremlin.

If the candidacy of Mishustin as Prime Minister did not raise any questions, then the appointment of Dmitry Patrushev as Deputy Prime Minister looks extremely logical. However, not all groups in the elite agree with this. But in vain! Patrushev once again proved his effectiveness as Minister of Agriculture, when there was first an egg crisis, then chicken suddenly disappeared from stores somewhere. A great professional with an experienced team, of which there are few today.

It is worth noting that Dmitry Patrushev has overstayed his welcome in his current position and it's really time for him to be promoted. It was rumored that Patrushev Sr. lobbied for the appointment of his son as head of the FSB, but Bortnikov managed to maintain his position and influence, despite the latest scandals.

Separately, we also note in the government the transfer of a number of governors to Moscow. This is due to the need to change personnel locally and launch the same social elevator that was promised to officials sent to work in new regions. And in general, emphasize that the position of governor can be a springboard even in conditions of limited changes in the system.

https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4076

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 11, 2024

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin submitted proposals on the composition of the new Russian government to the State Duma on May 11.[40] Mishustin proposed that current Minister of Agriculture Dmitry Patrushev become a Deputy Prime Minister and that current Kursk Oblast Governor Roman Starovoit become the Minister of Transport.[41] Mishustin also proposed that current Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov leave his position as Minister of Industry and Trade and become First Deputy Prime Minister. Mishustin nominated current Kaliningrad Oblast Governor Anton Alikhanov to replace Manturov as Minister of Industry and Trade. Dmitry Patrushev is notably the son of Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, and this is the second recent case of nominations to high ranking positions for children of people in Russian President Vladimir Putin's inner circle after Russian Federation Council Chairperson Valentina Matvienko nominated Boris Kovalchuk – the son of Putin's “personal banker” Yuri Kovalchuk – as a candidate for the head of the Federation Council Accounts Chamber on May 10.[42]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-11-2024

Benin blocks Niger oil exports in border row

Benin has prevented neighbouring Niger from using its port to export its first crude oil, as a border dispute rages between the two nations. President Patrice Talon's government is demanding that landlocked Niger reopens its side of the border if it wants to use Benin's ports. Mr Talon accused Niger of treating its neighbour like an “enemy”.

Benin and other West African nations imposed sanctions on Niger, including border closures, in a bid to force the military to hand back power to the elected government. The sanctions by the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) were eased in February, and were expected to normalise trade relations with Niger.

But Niger refused to open its land border for goods coming from Benin.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmm3dr2e5lqo

Iran Update, May 11, 2024
nothing special
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-11-2024

Iran Update, May 10, 2024

Iranian hardliners are continuing to discuss Iran's ability to procure a nuclear weapon. A hardline Iranian member of parliament speculated that Iran had developed nuclear weapons in an interview on May 10.[9] Newly-elected Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani told the moderate-aligned Rouydad 24 outlet that Iran had obtained nuclear weapons but had not and would not announce that it had nuclear weapons. Ardestani’s comments were speculative in nature, and he is likely unable to such information in his current role. Ardestani’s comments follow Strategic Foreign Relations Council Chairman Kamal Kharrazi‘s comment in an al Jazeera interview on May 9 that Iran will have “no choice” but to change its nuclear doctrine if Israel threatens Iran's existence.[10] These statements align with International Atomic Energy Agency Chief Rafael Grossi’s May 8 comments that the agency was working ”very hard with [Iran] to prevent [nuclear weaponization] from happening,” suggesting that Iran has already obtained or is close to obtaining the ability to procure nuclear weapons.[11]

These discussions coincide with an April 2024 report that claimed that Iran is attempting to obtain 300 tons of uranium yellowcake from Niger.[12] A French investigative outlet reported on April 30 that Iran and Niger have been negotiating a deal since late 2023 for Iran to provide military drones and surface-to-air missiles in exchange for 300 tons of uranium yellowcake. This quantity is significant given that Iran announced in 2019 that it intended to produce 300 tons of yellowcake per year by 2024. A Nigerien delegation notably traveled to Tehran in January 2024 and signed unspecified agreements with Iranian officials, including Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Minister Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Gharaei Ashtiani. Ashtiani is responsible for managing the Iranian defense industry, including arms procurement and sales. Niger ended its counterterrorism partnership with the United States in March 2024 after US officials accused Niger of secretly exploring a deal to allow Iran access to Nigerien uranium reserves. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian met with the new Iranian ambassador to Niger on the same day that Niger suspended its counterterrorism cooperation with the United States.

Iranian-Zimbabwean cooperation has also increased in recent weeks amid Iranian hardliner comments about the Iranian nuclear program, as CTP previously reported.[13] Zimbabwe participated in the inaugural Iranian Nuclear Science and Technology Conference, for example, in Esfahan City between May 6-8.[14] The Times claimed in 2013 that Zimbabwe had signed an agreement with Iran to sell materials for Iran's nuclear weapons program, which Zimbabwe has since denied.[15] No further reporting has corroborated The Times’ 2013 report.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-10-2024

Pardon my ignorance, but is Tk’emlúps te Secwépemc related to Cthulhu?

Russian blogger:

The migrant driver of a bus that fell into the river in St. Petersburg turned out to be an ISIS terrorist.

The fall of a bus into the Moika River in St. Petersburg was a terrorist attack. Our sources in the intelligence services say this off the record. The bus driver, as is known, was a 44-year-old native of Tajikistan. The intelligence services have already discovered the driver's connection with ISIS. (ISIS is a terrorist organization banned in Russia.) At the same time, an unspoken ban was given on publicly acknowledging the involvement of ISIS in this incident. A source in the FSB claims that ISIS has seriously changed the mechanics of carrying out terrorist attacks.

“Due to the strengthening of measures to track explosives, (terrorists - ed.) are forced to use new forms of terrorist attacks. Using drivers in public transport is one of the “know-hows.” A week earlier, FSB officers were able to prevent a similar attack in one of the cities of the central Russia. But it's impossible to cover everything,” says our interlocutor.

And he adds: “That's why we began to put harsh pressure on the Tajiks, to expel them. Not because we are xenophobes and don't like anyone there. But because we know that among them there are the highest number of ISIS supporters,” said the FSB officer. For this reason, by the way, the issuance of labor permits has been paused in St. Petersburg . “We received operational information that there would be a terrorist attack. We checked everyone, but we didn't think that the attack would come from that direction,” our source said. Law enforcement agencies fear a leak that ISIS terrorists were involved in the attack. At the same time, there are some dissatisfied in the FSB and the police that the authorities decided to hide the real threat. A high-ranking interlocutor suggested that in order to avoid leaks, the media and telegram channels began to actively disseminate information that the first to rush to help the victims were supporters of Islam from Dagestan. After all, they were not the only ones who rushed to save the bus passengers. Interlocutors at the FSB advise us to look around more carefully in the next 1.5-2 weeks. After all, the threat still remains. Although the special services are working to eliminate it. *

https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4069

Probably ISKP and not ISIS. It is not easy to understand the difference or they have so far only banned ISIS and not ISKP see https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4042550/posts?page=6152#6152

The State Duma approved Mikhail Mishustin as prime minister. Once again, the most corrupt official will be at the head of the government. We continue to publish our investigation into Mishustin’s wallet, confidant, and custodian of Mishustin’s assets, Alexander Udodov.

According to the source, Udodov and Mishustin actively use administrative resources in Azerbaijan.

The fact is that Mishustin is a friend and partner of the Prime Minister of Azerbaijan Ali Asadov. Udodov also serves all tax interests of the group of Araz Agalarov, God Nisanov and Zarakh Iliev. Helps to minimize tax payments, often reducing them by 10 times what special (largest) taxpayers owe to the country's budget. Mishustin, head of the Foreign Intelligence Service Naryshkin and these oligarchs are partners in a number of areas. As our interlocutor said, Mishustin introduced Udodov to Naryshkin, Agalarov and even the Prime Minister of Azerbaijan Asadov. “Azerbaijani friends” gave the company SHEER ONE INVESTMENT LLC to Mishustin and Udodov for the fictitious re-registration of their foreign assets in order to circumvent American and European sanctions. Mishustin and Udodov are using all resources and tools so as not to lose large businesses and real estate abroad. As www.Rucriminal.info previously reported, in order to evade sanctions, one of the main commercial assets in Germany of Mishustin and Udodov - VGCargo Gmbh - was registered in the name of the Azerbaijani company SHEER ONE INVESTMENT LLC. Udodov and Mishustin are most afraid of losing this asset, since it is one of the largest assets in the field of logistics throughout Germany.

https://t.me/vchkogpu/48057

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 10, 2024

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin is retaining his position in the Russian government for Russian President Vladimir Putin's new term of office, and there have been speculations but no confirmations of changes to Putin's cabinet. The Russian State Duma voted overwhelmingly in support of Mishustin’s renomination as prime minister, and Putin signed the corresponding decree reappointing Mishustin on May 10.[41] Russian outlet RBK, citing three sources familiar with personnel consultations in the Kremlin, reported that Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov will retain his title as Deputy Prime Minister but will relinquish his post as Minister of Industry and Trade, and RBK reported that Kaliningrad Oblast Head Anton Alikhanov will take over this position.[42] Putin publicly embarrassed Manturov in January 2023, and Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu heavily criticized Manturov on May 2, 2024, but RBK’s source stated that the new appointment is “logical and expected” as all the possible candidates for the Minister of Industry and Trade are “in one way or another, from Manturov’s team.”[43] Russian State Duma Chairperson Vyacheslav Volodin stated that the Duma will consider appointments for deputy prime ministers and ministerial positions on May 14.[44]

Russian Federation Council Chairperson Valentina Matvienko announced on May 10 that she delivered a list of candidates to Putin for the head of the Federation Council Accounts Chamber, which notably includes Presidential Control Directorate Deputy Head Boris Kovalchuk.[45] Boris Kovalchuk is the son of Putin's “personal banker” Yuri Kovalchuk, who is often credited with being Putin's close confidant and influential ideologue, including reportedly being one of three Russians to convince Putin to launch the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.[46] Yuri Kovalchuk is also a close associate of Russian Presidential Administration Deputy Head Sergey Kiriyenko, whose own influence has expanded following the start of the full-scale invasion.[47] Putin only recently appointed Boris Kovalchuk to his post in the Presidential Control Directorate on March 15, before which Boris Kovalchuk headed the Russian energy company Inter RAO for 15 years.[48] The other two candidates for Federation Council Accounts Chamber head include Accounts Chamber Acting Head Galina Izotova, who has served in this position since the former head resigned in 2022 and served as deputy head since 2019, and Anatoly Artamonov, chairperson of the Federation Council Committee on Budget and Financial Markets.[49] Boris Kovalchuk is the only one of these three candidates to lack a doctorate in economics and extensive experience in the field.[50] Boris Kovalchuk's candidacy for a Federation Council post given his lack of experience and newness to the presidential administration is notable given Yuri Kovalchuk's closeness to Putin, indicating that Kovalchuk's favor with Putin may be increasing. Putin will consider Matvienko’s list of candidates and choose one for the Federation Council to consider in the coming days.[51]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-10-2024

Russian blogger:

What Putin, Gerasimov and Shoigu persuaded Lukashenko to do

On the eve of Victory Day, Vladimir Putin received Alexander Lukashenko. The fact of the meeting itself was not hidden; both leaders announced it the next day, emphasizing that the conversation dragged on until late at night. At some point, the leaders of the states were joined by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.

Initially, the meeting was in a tete-a-tete format. Lukashenko and Putin discussed relations between the countries and some aspects of economic interaction. Very soon the conversation turned to military topics. And Lukashenko, quite unexpectedly, said: “How can I help, Vladimir Vladimirovich?” The President did not expect such a move, so he said that we were “coping with it for now.” At the same time, Vladimir Vladimirovich showed Alexander Grigorievich a map of military operations and told several stories about the heroic battles of the Russian army.

Lyrics aside, Putin was extremely respectful during this meeting. Even too much. Sources attribute this to the fact that the Kremlin now urgently needs Belarus, primarily to distract the attention of the West. There are two directions that were already discussed in the presence of Shoigu and Gerasimov. Firstly, exercises with nuclear weapons carriers. Secondly, the threat of an offensive from NATO countries and the need to ensure control over the Suwalki corridor to Kaliningrad.

Shoigu insisted that the security of Kaliningrad in the face of increased escalation from the West must be ensured. The situation in the Baltic Sea has become difficult for the Russian fleet, since NATO's military presence has grown significantly after Finland and Sweden joined the Alliance.

Lukashenko, for his part, transmitted intelligence information about the presence of fortifications and defense structures in the Suwalki corridor area. The President of Belarus noted that taking control of the 100-kilometer corridor to Kaliningrad “will not be an easy walk.” For his part, Lukashenko promised to help with logistics, but emphasized that the participation of Belarusian troops is extremely undesirable. Both Shoigu and Gerasimov and, in fact, Putin insisted that Belarus would have to take part in the breakthrough. And this will be a preemptive strike that will ruin the enemy's plans. However, and this is important, Lukashenko did not say the last “yes”.

As for nuclear weapons, there are currently no serious specialists in Belarus, which is why joint exercises are needed. Information about the alleged preparation of a nuclear strike on Ukraine is complete nonsense. The good thing about the nuclear button is that people are afraid of it only until it is pressed. Then the fact of intimidation stops working.

Rumor has it that Lukashenko managed to agree on a number of economic preferences for Belarus. At the same time, he was flattered by the respect with which Putin received him.

https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4065

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 9, 2024

Russian border guards are withdrawing from much of Armenia as Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan continues to face domestic backlash for decisions regarding Nagorno-Karabakh. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on May 9 that Pashinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed during a meeting on May 8 to stop Russian border guard operations in a number of Armenian regions due to “changed conditions,” likely referring to Armenia's loss of Nagorno-Karabakh.[33] Peskov noted that Russian border guards will remain stationed on the Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Iranian international borders.[34] Meanwhile, thousands of protestors have completed a multi-day march to Yerevan, Armenia, where they are currently protesting in Yerevan's Republic Square against Pashinyan’s decision to transfer control over four border villages in Tavush Province to Azerbaijan in the wake of Armenia's loss of Nagorno-Karabakh.[35] Armenian Apostolic Church Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, who serves as the Primate of the Tavush Diocese, has emerged as a leader of these protests and issued a public call on May 9 for Pashinyan to either resign within the hour or face a vote of no confidence in the parliament.[36] Galstanyan met with Armenian opposition parliamentarians after the deadline elapsed to discuss initiating a vote of no confidence to oust Pashinyan.[37] Armenia's constitution stipulates that at least a third of parliamentarians or the president must support a draft resolution of no confidence to bring a vote, and at least half of parliamentarians must then vote in favor of the final no confidence resolution.[38] The constitution also stipulates that the final vote of no confidence occur between 48 and 72 hours of the draft's initial submission. Pashinyan’s ruling Civil Contract party holds roughly 54 percent of the seats in Armenian parliament, so it is unlikely that a vote of no confidence would oust Pashinyan without defectors from the Civil Contract party voting for the opposition.[39]

The Kremlin may seek to capitalize on opposition outrage in Armenia to punish Pashinyan for increasingly pulling away from Russia. Russian state media has closely followed the protests and is widely amplifying Galstanyan's calls for Pashinyan’s resignation or a vote of no confidence.[40] A prominent, Kremlin-awarded Russian milblogger has tracked the protest march from Kirash, Tavush Province to Yerevan and expressed support for the protestors.[41] This milblogger and other Russian officials and pro-Kremlin voices have frequently spread information operations accusing Pashinyan of “weakness” and incompetence for ceding territory to Azerbaijan after Russia failed to prevent the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh.[42] Pro-Kremlin actors may amplify reports of discontent or perpetuate ongoing Kremlin information operations in the wake of Armenian opposition protests to further pressure Pashinyan into mending relations with Russia.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-9-2024

MbS needs new game plan as Houthis, Iran flex naval power

Given that Saudi Arabia in Mar. 2023 struck a normalization deal with Iran, and is in parallel engaged in peace talks with the Houthis, neither Sana’a nor Tehran are likely to strike the Kingdom. However, these conditions can change fast, to Riyadh's detriment.

In 2019 attacks on oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais slashed nearly half of Saudi production and about 5% of global supply. While the Houthis claimed the operation, Iran was blamed for the precision strikes, which were said to have been conducted with cruise missiles and drones. In a shock to the Kingdom, the Donald Trump administration did not come to the rescue. This was extremely damaging to Riyadh's confidence in Washington's commitment to its security.

Those turbulent years, coupled with Saudi Arabia's newfound perception that the US was not committed to its security, served as a wake-up call to the Kingdom. Even as Riyadh is now pursuing security guarantees from Washington as part of any normalization deal with Israel, Saudi decision makers understand that they cannot rely on the US to protect their vital oil infrastructure.

Ultimately, it is against this backdrop that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (MbS) went from referring to Iran's supreme leader as “Hitler” in 2017 to agreeing to hold diplomatic talks with Iranian officials in 2021—ultimately resulting in the 2023 normalization deal with Tehran.

While Saudi Arabia previously was primarily concerned about avoiding becoming a casualty of a Iran-US confrontation, it is now also laboring to stay clear of a wider conflagration between Iran and Israel.

While the Islamic Republic does not intend to target the Kingdom, it can easily blame Israel and the US for forcing it to respond in a way that compromises global trade. Already, Tehran is once again threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the Houthis have expanded the scope of their maritime operations to the Indian Ocean, which vessels carrying Saudi energy exports must traverse. Indeed, while Yanbu and the east-to-west pipeline provide easy passage to European clients, the Kingdom's prime customers remain in Asia. This means that a step such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be catastrophic.

read full paper https://amwaj.media/article/mbs-needs-new-game-plan-as-houthis-iran-flex-naval-power

Iran Update, May 9, 2024

Iranian hardliners are continuing to normalize discussions about Iran's ability to procure a nuclear weapon. Strategic Foreign Relations Council Chairman Kamal Kharrazi stated during an interview with al Jazeera on May 9 that Iran will have “no choice” but to change its nuclear doctrine if Israel threatens Iran's existence[60] Kharrazi emphasized that Iran has not decided to pursue a nuclear weapon but warned that Iran's “level [61] Kharrazi is a top foreign policy adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Kharrazi’s decision to conduct the interview with al Jazeera suggests that he meant to send this message especially to the Arab states, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Kharrazi previously stated that Iran has the “technical means” to make a nuclear weapon but had not decided whether to pursue such a weapon during an interview with al Jazeera in July 2022.[62]

Other senior Iranian officials have similarly discussed openly Iran's ability to produce a nuclear weapon in recent weeks. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Nuclear Security and Protection Corps Commander Brig. Gen. Ahmad Haghtalab announced on April 18 that Iran will change its “nuclear doctrine and policies” if Israel strikes Iran's nuclear facilities.[63] Haghtalab’s statement preceded the Israeli airstrike on April 18 that targeted an Artesh Air Force base in Esfahan City, Esfahan Province, approximately 112 kilometers south of the Natanz Nuclear Complex.[64]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-9-2024

1300 !