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“In 2016 and 2020 slot of people had to hold their nose when they voted for him because of that.”

I have been voting for fifty years. I have never voted for a democrat for anything. I have always voted Republican (understand that I grew up in Chicago and much of my voting history was in Chicago).

I “held my nose” and voted for Bush senior. I then voted for Dole. I then voted for Bush the younger (twice). I “held my nose” and voted for McCain. Then I “held my nose” and voted for Romney. AND ALL OF THEM SCREWED US!!! And in the case of Romney CONTINUE TO SCREW US.

After seeing how Bush betrayed us I should never have voted for him.

By 2016 I wanted a candidate that was ready to (rhetorically) punch Bush, McCain and Romney in the nose (GOOD AND HARD!!!). When Trump did that (rhetorically) I knew he was my candidate. And still is.

DeSantis seems to be a good governor. But he seems to be taking money from the people who should be rhetorically punched in the nose. Let him stay in Florida.

I am through holding my nose.

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Biden’s date for leaving was 11 September as I understand. The plan was a great big photo op. Twenty years after 911. (Also tenth anniversary of Benghazi).

Thanks semantic. I look forward to your charts, stats, and opinions/analysis.

I don’t know whether you caught it or not, but I believe Birx indicated in yesterday’s press conference that we are about 12 days behind Italy on the curve. Your figure of 8 has been a good calculation, but I wonder whether you might consider moving your estimates in that direction.

As I gather, that would mean that the figures would worsen (not as much as 18 as you mentioned yesterday) but might be more in line with the actual decision making figures used by the administration.

Thanks for your insight on these threads.

I’m not going to defend Fauci at all, but that story about trusting China numbers was a Fox story with a date of 19 February. Even the other day President Trump was talking about how great a relationship he personally had with Xi.

If we should not be trusting Chinese numbers (and I most certainly do not) we should also be cautious about taking public statements about China at face value. I think there may be more than a little bit of diplomacy going on (”diplomacy is the art of saying ‘nice doggy’ while you look for a big stick.”)

My working hypothesis is that China has us, for the moment, over a barrel. President Trump is trying to get us out of the predicament and then push back.

Now, Fauci’s talk of China’s numbers may have nothing to do with my hypothesis, but someday I may know one way or the other.

In closing, I have found these daily threads a great source of information and all who have been positively contributing have my thanks.

Thanks to you all.
Keep up the good threads.

Expat here living in The Netherlands. According to Worldometer, The Netherlands is currently #5 in the world (less San Marino and Andorra) for number of deaths per million.

We’re hunkered down in a “soft” lockdown if you can call it that. Some people are still out in the streets, walking, running, and bicycling (a Dutch passion). Most people at home, but maybe going out for groceries or being outside for gardening, etc. That’s my neighborhood. Some more exotic neighborhoods may be very different, but I’ve not heard anything.

I started to hunker down around the beginning of February (based on news reports out of Wuhan reported here on FR). The FR daily thread has been of tremendous help.

I cancelled a mission trip to Ukraine for early March and lost the price of my ticket, but gained time to being out of close contact with people. Right now doing some teaching by internet and preparing to stay hunkered down at least until June (and probably longer).

Thanks for doing this. It helps.

The Netherlands is a small but very densely populated country. It is roughly the same area and roughly the same total population of New Jersey. It might be more appropriate to compare The Netherlands to New Jersey.

Right now New Jersey total deaths: 267
Right now The Netherlands total deaths: 1,039 (175 new reported today)

Number of cases is more difficult to compare since it is largely a function of testing.

It may also be that New Jersey and The Netherlands have different starting points and are at different stages in the epidemic bell curve.

In any event, the little country of cheese, wooden shoes and windmills is currently ranked #4 in the world (less San Marino and Andorra) in number of deaths per million population.

Not exactly a success story, at least not enough evidence of one to this point.

I am an expat living in Holland, and while there is no complete lockdown here there are significant closures and restrictions.

Whether Holland’s quarantine-lite will work remains to be seen. Daily death reports have trended significantly higher and for a number of days the country has ranked the third or fourth highest in the world in number of deaths per million. Right now, excluding San Marino and Andorra, the top is Italy, then Spain, then Belgium and then The Netherlands.

Ultimately this strategy may work, but it is also very risky. Business is surely hurting, and there is a significant risk that the hospitalizations get out of hand.

Really the number of deaths per day is not particularly telling. From the same site the total number of deaths per million population is more interesting. Here The Netherlands is number three in the world (discounting San Marino and Andorra) with 32 deaths per million.

I happen to be living right now in The Netherlands and have been watching the data closely. This is a very densely populated country and unless the daily number of deaths begins to level off (I thought so until today’s 112 figure) I am being very cautious about the prospects here.

Wastoute,
Thanks for all your posts over the last several days. From the posts I’m getting a reasonable layman’s understanding of the data and the issues. That is helping me process what I am seeing.

I am an expat living in another country and this is helping me evaluate (at least a little) where we may be on the roller coaster. Thanks.

OK, a quick perspective from an expat who has lived in The Netherlands for quite some time.

Many people are taking the virus serious, but last weekend there were loads of people walking in parks, along the beach and just gathering together like nothing is the matter. Garden centers and do-it-yourself outlets were said to be packed with people getting ready to use the “free days” coming up. Some people still just out cycling and jogging and walking around.

A couple of days ago the government held a press conference and scolded those who were treating this as an unexpected “free vacation.” Nothing seems to have changed (from my behind the window perspective).

My wife and I have been basically hunkered down for the better part of 3 weeks. My wife had some face to face responsibilities for giving limited care to her aged and fragile parents. We had no desire to become infected and then transmit it to them (they would likely not survive it).

I do some seminary teaching and our school shifted to online lectures only as per government directives. I mostly have been home for weeks now (attending online church services as well). As far as school is concerned, many of our students live in close quarters in the dormitory. One infection would spread throughout the school in my opinion. Can’t have that so I am happy to learn some new skills in teaching.

Nobody here seems to understand prepping. About two months ago we saw this coming (thanks largely to FR threads) and started to pack in more than our normal supplies. It has been a couple of weeks since we made a grocery run, and I calculate we can stay hunkered about 5 or 6 more weeks. There were photos of grocery store shelves cleaned out about a week ago.

There is not the same hysteria perhaps, but the TP phenomenon hit here as well. Another American expat friend did not heed the telltale signs and did not stock up. The friend reported having to go to 12 different shops to find a single roll of TP. Nice way to pick up a virus while picking up a roll of TP. Personally I have no idea what the grocery stores look like now because I have not stepped in one in a few weeks.

Traffic, bicycles and pedestrians are down from normal, but many are just being nonchalant (I see them from behind my front windows.)

At the same time, deaths are climbing more and more. Today the Worldometer shows The Netherlands as being about #5 or so in deaths per million, right now I think 21 per million and climbing. The other day the rates of increase looked eerily like the early days of Italy. I hope that does not continue to track and I’ve not checked to see if anyone has updated the comparative charts. All I know is that it will get much worse before it gets better. Loads more deaths than Germany (a much bigger country in population). My guess is that it will get very nasty in the coming weeks, and the government still seems to be dithering.

That’s how I see it from over here.

When I looked closer it looked like it was from 30 January or before. Likely just gallows humor and not a serious bit of information.

If that is really from 3 February, someone is likely sending out a signal to the Chinese people.

https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/01/29/china-flights-still-arriving-at-logan-airport-as-coronavirus-fears-grow/

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