Free Republic

Dan, you wouldn’t be thinking Colorado and Maine?

First they went after the Green Party candidate and Kanye West in 2020, and I said nothing because I’m a Republican.

Then they went after Donald Trump in Colorado and Maine in 2024, and I said nothing because I’m not a MAGA Republican.

Then they went after me, and there was nobody to help defend me.

“We either hang together or we hang separately.” Benjamin Franklin

Alabama did the same thing four years ago to accommodate both national parties. Ohio has still to provide an accommodation to the Democrats this year. Note how different things are for the major parties, than they are for independents and minor parties. Four years ago, the Green Party candidate and Kanye West were kept off the ballots in almost all battleground states due to fastidiousness in checking signatures and enforcing deadlines. Probably as a result (and not even counting illegal voting), Biden won AZ, GA and WI, and the election.

The second NV should be WI.

According to Kennedy, Biden loses to Trump 294 to 244 electoral votes, mano a mano. Crucially, Trump carries five of the seven consensus battleground states (AZ, GA, NC, NV and NV) (losing only MI and PA); and, also Trump also wins ME at-large and VA.

Trump also wins a three-way race with him, Biden and Kennedy.

But, if Biden drops out, and it's a two-way Kennedy versus Trump contest, RFK Jr. wins.

Excuse me, but Donald Trump WAS President of the United States from 2017 to 2020, and freedom of the press did not end.

What passes for politics in Democratic states is the attempt by everybody to live at the expense of everybody else. At some level, people should realize that everybody CAN’T be subsidized. Even that the idea that the majority can live at the expense of the rich is unworkable, as the rich aren’t stupid enough to be much exploited. Nevertheless, a lot of people can get sucked into lives of being subsidized by others, whether through rents subsidized by those who aren’t subsidized, health care that’s subsidized by the medical payments of others, and even free or reduced cost cell phones paid by those who aren’t subsidized. Low cost tuition based on skin color disguised as need, student loan forgiveness, and make-work DEI jobs. Subsidies for electric vehicles, wind and solar energy, and enumerable other parts of the green agenda. The list of subsidies is simply endless. At some point, the system become so corrupt, you think you’re just getting some of your own money back. But, no, it’s a foo’s game; and, we are ALL made much worse off.

The drifting of some states to the left: People who have blinders on only see the drift of certain states to the left. They don’t recognize that other states have drifted to the right. Ohio, Florida and Iowa used to be competitive states that have drifted to the right.

We have a theory to describe why elections tend to be close and why it is unusual for any one party to dominate elections. It’s called the Median Voter Theory. Parties are usually flexible enough to appeal to enough voters to each have a fair chance of winning. Outcomes are usually close enough to be determined, at the margin, by results such as how well the economy is doing. During the 1980s, this theory was popularized as The Misery Index.

It seems to me the other side is stuck in a miserable place, with the green agenda, massive redistribution, and being soft on crime and having a foreign policy of appeasing aggressors. Furthermore, their idea that they will win votes based on skin color and other dimensions of identity politics is exaggerated. That might still work with African Americans, but it doesn’t work with, for example, Hispanics. Again, it seems to me, the Democrats are the ones that are boxed in, not the Republicans.

well said, enumerated.

The Democrats supposed the future of America was to be determined by skin color. (They are such racists!)

In fact, Hispanics are moving en masse to the Republican Party, just as the so-called white ethnics a century ago.

For the Hispanics, as for the white ethnics, a generation or so in the Democratic Party was part of the process of assimilating into the country. We are such as country that we can assimilate new people and our ever-changing culture adapt.

African Americans aren’t the model for “other minorities.” They are a unique subculture. Hence, the Hispanics, like the white ethnics before them, leap frog the African Americans.

African Americans are the only large identifiable group that overwhelmingly votes a particular way (Democratic since the 1950s). They look in the mirror and see a color, not a human being. This is maybe slowly changing. Until it actually does change, African Americans are condemned to the bottom of the American socio-economic ladder.

The Democrats thought that formula would apply to the Hispanics. But, thankfully, they were wrong in the case of the Hispanics. Hopefully, one day, they will be wrong in the case of African Americans.

Their semi-official analysis of 2020 admitted to the undercount, but claimed to not know the reason.

AAPOR [American Association of Public Opinion Research] (2021). An Evaluation of the 2020 General Election Polls.

In fact, the mainstream polls continue to this day with large Democrat shares in their samples, contradicted both by the Exit Poll of 2020 and the trends in voter registration in states that register voters by party. The alienation of the working class by the elites has its effects. One of them, to turn more people on our side off to participating in polls. Having said this, the 2022 polls didn’t seem seem out of whack. So, maybe it’s Hidden Trump voters and not simply Hidden Republican voters.

Thanks Carl. Next time get your facts straight. Republicans count votes too. Vote-counting is a decentralized process in the U.S. Perhaps too decentralized (because many localities do not have viable two-party systems). We can and should clean up the voting process. Florida has shown that this can be done.

The best analysis of the potential of vote fraud to impact the 2020 election is that it wasn’t large enough to change the outcome of the election.

https://crimeresearch.org/2022/04/forthcoming-research-in-public-choice-simple-tests-for-the-extent-of-vote-fraud-with-absentee-and-provisional-ballots-in-the-2020-us-presidential-election/

IN ANY CASE, there is a larger hidden Trump vote than the dead Democrat vote. If we’re ahead in the polls going into the election, we’ll very probably be well head when the votes are counted.

Two-way: AZ +2, GA +3, MI +1, NV +1, NC +5, PA +2, WI +2; Five-way: same in MI, higher margins for Trump otherwise

DeSantis fizzled on the campaign trail during the early GOP contests. His strength is that he’s a policy wonk. But, this was his weakness on the presidential stage. He’d make a great nominee for Attorney General. I’m hoping Trump names Pompeo or Abbot as Vice President, and brings in a great team.

I thought Miami was supposed to be underwater by now.

https://www.npr.org/2009/12/11/120498442/florida-faces-drastic-change-from-sea-level-rise

https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/document?repid=rep1&type=pdf&doi=4f50f40d9bf8a706563ae31f459d07d883e5425c

Democrats, suspecting that they will lose, looking to de-legitimate the election.

No. Trump's lead over Biden isn't holding steady. It INCREASED from 4 points in CNN's January poll, to 6 points in this one.

This polling result is consistent with recent Gallup and Pew polls showing Biden's Job Approval collapsing. But inconsistent with three CBS/YouGov state polls released today, showing tight races in MI, PA and WI.

What's happening? Or. what's NOT happening?

Apparently, what's NOT happening is that the American people aren't impressed with the Stalin-like kangaroo trials the Democrats are conducting against Trump.

Also what IS happening - according to some but not all polls - is that the American people are holding Biden responsible for the deterioration of the economy, the spread of war and hate in the world, and all manner of crime in the United States.

It’s Operation Uranus. We’re coming crashing on their over-extended flank.

Admittedly, Michigan is a bit out there. But, outlier polls are often in the mix when things are changing; and, Gallup and Pew show Biden's JA is cratering.

In 2016, third-party play started out big. Gary Johnson, the Libertarian, was pulling double digits. Jill Stein, the Green, was pulling high single digits. There were a few others. By the end, Johnson was down to 3 percent and Stein to 1 percent. Almost all of Johnson’s support shifted over to Trump, and almost all of Stein’s support shifted over to Clinton. The shift of Johnson’s support was one of two or three big reasons for Trump’s dramatic come from behind victory. It was one of the most dramatic political victories in history, easily on a par with Harry Truman’s victory in 1948. Consider yourself fortunate if you were part of it. One day history will be able to give that contest the recognition it deserves.

In 2020, the Libertarians nominated a party-insider and was hardly heard of. Kanye West and the Green Party candidate were kept off the ballot in almost every important state by fastidiousness in checking signatures and enforcing deadlines. I may be the only pundit in the country who thinks Biden won and Trump lost because West and the Green Party candidate were kept off the ballots in Georgia, Wisconsin and Arizona. The Democrats didn’t miss a beat. They were working the angles from the start, beginning with keeping the third-parties that could hurt them off the ballot. Anybody out there who thinks the Democrats are just going to step aside and let Trump win isn’t being realistic. We’re in a knife fight in a dark alley.

This year, it’s like 2016 over again. A big hoop-dee-doo about third parties. In the end, the vast majority will come home to either the Republican or the Democratic Party. Think of Bill Barr. That guy realizes it’s not just Trump, it’s the entire f’n country that’s on the line. (On the other hand, DON’T think of Chris Christie. That fat tub of lard is full of himself. He DOESN’T put the country first.)

I do think some of the anti-Semites will be voting third-party, as will some of the green weenies. RFK Jr with his mish-mash of conspiracy theories ... who can figure that guy out? On the other hand, we have two guys who have actually served as President. From most people’s perspectives, both have short-comings. But, guess what, everybody does. How about we consider some of our guy’s very strong strengths? I’ll just mention his amazing energy (a lot of which he draws from his fans).

They say you win or lose in football as a team. Well, guess what, that’s the way it will be this election.

These are small polls. Wide margins of error, conventionally measured. You’d want to look at averages such as the Real Clear Politics tracking poll. Trump’s looking fine. Plus, we have reason to suspect there’s hidden support for Trump. In 2016 and in 2020, he out-performed the polls. In 2016, enough to come from behind and win. In 2020, he still came from behind, but not by enough to win. As long as we’re no more than 3 point behind, we should have a good chance of winning. As it is, we’re ahead. Just ignore the negative people on this thread. My guess is that most of the them are paid by Putin and Soros to tear our country apart.

The lady doth protest too much. Hamlet