Keyword: rates
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Its just like The Fed. The Taylor Rule says that The Fed’s target rate should be 10.29%, but now the terminal rate has been lowered to 5.475%, almost half of where the target rate should be. Today’s jobs report for February was a huge disappointment IFF you expected another blowout jobs report like the one from January (504k jobs added). February saw just 311k jobs added, a decline of -38.3% MoM. And just like that, The Fed’s terminal rate fell to 5.475%, a far cry from the 10.29% rate according to the Taylor Rule. Today’s Fed Funds Target rate is...
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Slippin’ into darkness! The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve, that is. At the same time that the 10Y-2Y yield curve inverts to -108 basis points, Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate has risen to 7.11%. Now that The Federal Reserve is no longer low riding interest rates, I expect to see a cooling of the US economy.
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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday cautioned that interest rates are likely to head higher than central bank policymakers had expected. “If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes,” the central bank leader said in prepared remarks for appearances this week on Capitol Hill.
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Home prices fell for the sixth straight month in December as high mortgage rates damped buyer demand, according to data released Tuesday. New S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index data released Tuesday showed prices falling nationally by 0.3 percent in December from the previous month after season adjustments. But prices were still higher than at the same time a year earlier, posting non-seasonally adjusted increase of 5.8 percent. “Home prices fell again in December, but levels are still higher than a year ago. Buyers and sellers ended the year on a discouraging note, with sales declining as mortgage rates soared, new listings...
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TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — A study on auto insurance rates across the country found that in Florida, women pay an average more than $300 higher than men. The study, by QuoteWizard, said it was the second largest gender gap in the country, when it came to auto insurance rates. Generally, the study said men tend to pay slightly less no matter where. However, sometimes it’s a matter of age. Teenage male drivers pay more than their female counterparts, but overall men pay less. “On average, we found that men pay $720 per year for auto insurance, while women pay $739...
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The thrill is gone from housing as The Fed tightens away. Well, January’s existing home sales numbers were horrific. Down -37% year-over-year (YoY) and down -0.7% MoM. The median price of existing home sales fell to 0.67% YoY.
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Over the past few months, we’ve asked Colorado Springs Utilities (CSU) questions about how they spend ratepayer dollars on advertising and sponsorships. Stay tuned for a future Springs Taxpayers United article about sponsorships. Right now, we’ll focus exclusively on the CSU advertising budget. We wondered why a monopoly utility needs to advertise at all. No one in their service area has a choice on which utility to use. The local advertising company Vladmir Jones handles the advertising account for CSU. Through a Colorado Open Records Act (CORA) request, we asked for all of the 2022 advertising expenditures. Vladmir Jones invoices...
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Last week’s strange jobs report (massive discrepancy between the Establishment and Household data) did push expectations of further Fed rate hikes up. In fact, the US Treasury 10-year yield is up 10 basis points this morning. The US Treasury 10Y-3M yield curve remains inverted at -106 basis points while the implied Fed rate hike for the June 2023 FOMC meeting jumps to over 5%. Mortgage rates? Likely to rise.
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The Federal Reserve slowed its drive to rein in inflation and said further interest-rate hikes are in store as officials debate when to end their most aggressive tightening of credit in four decades. Policymakers lifted the Fed’s target for its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%. The smaller move followed a half-point increase in December and four jumbo-sized 75 basis-point hikes prior to that. The unanimous decision by the Federal Open Market Committee was in line with financial market expectations. Markets are forecasting a pivot after the June meeting in 2023. The...
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The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) is meeting on Wednesday. What will they do? First, The Fed Funds Target (upper bound) is above the Core US inflation rate YoY. Second, M2 Money growth YoY has slowed to -1.3%. Of course, the members of the FOMC might decide that this is not enough and may keep raising rates and shrinking The Fed’s enormous balance sheet. In the “Haven’t they suffered enough?” arena, US real disposable income has fallen by -21% since Biden was sworn-in as President. On the other hand, the Taylor Rule is still pointing to a target rate...
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There was a hilarious film with Hillary Swank and Aaron Ekhart called “The Core” where earth’s core stops spinning and the earth gets cooked by the Sun’s rediation. Now we learn that the Earth’s inne core has actually stop spinning. This time, however, all that has happened is that Joe Biden is President which is almost as bad, But also related to “The Core” is that the important Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) are out for December along with PCE price deflator numbers. In short, personal income was up 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in December while personal spending was down -0.2%. REAL...
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Ah, the start of a new week with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen arguing (with a straight face) that there is no room in the Federal budget for cuts. Apparenly, Yellen never read any of the massive, pork-laden spending bills signed by Biden (no one else did in Congress either, nor did Biden). Let’s start with the US credit default swap (1 year). It remains high at 68.72 (the price of insuring against a US default). And the US Treasury yield curve (10Y-3M)? It remains deeply inverted at -114 basis points this morning signaling an impending US recession. Then we have...
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New Englanders are contending with some of the highest electricity rates in the country this winter as they weather the transatlantic ripple effects of a global gas crunch. Residents of New England’s six states have thus far enjoyed a relatively mild winter without rolling blackouts. But skyrocketing rates — fueled by natural gas price surges and the war in Ukraine — are taking a toll on a region accustomed to cranking up the heat.
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Does anyone know why a "flat", as defined by USPS to be a large envelope not over 15" L x 12" W x 3/4" Thick, costs significantly more to send if it is square, than rectangular. This even if the rectangular flat is larger than the square flat?
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Let it snow! Or is it a blizzard? Redfin released a terrible housing report showing that home sales fell a gut-wrenching 35% in November, the largest on record since Redfin has been collecting data. Hopefully mortgage rates will continue to decline in 2023! Meery Christmas from sub-zero Columbus Ohio where it is snowing with 50 mph gusts. Brrrrrr.
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The highest interest rates in 15 years are delaying home dreams, putting business plans on ice and forcing many Americans to agree to loan terms that would have been unimaginable just nine months ago. Biden’s anti-fossil fuel policies are helping drive up prices and The Federal Reserve is hiking rates to cool it off. Most of all, the surge in borrowing costs is punishing the cash-poor. And it’s about to get worse as the Federal Reserve carries on with its anti-inflation campaign and keeps hiking rates next year. As the Fed’s most aggressive interest-rate hike cycle in a generation filters...
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As expected, The Federal Reserve raised their target rate by 50 basis points to 4.50%, the highest Fed target rate since November 2007. The only thing interesting that happened was Powell’s hawkish statements about The Fed wanting to keep tightening to fight inflation caused under “Inflation Joe” Biden. But the NEW Fed Dots plot looks like an Olympic Ski jump with expectations of DECLINING Fed target rates.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 140 points, or 0.4%. The Dow was higher by 287 points earlier in the day. The S&P 500 declined 0.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 1%. The Fed delivered a widely-anticipated 50 basis point rate hike at the conclusion of its December policy meeting. It’s a smaller bump from the prior four consecutive rate hikes of 75 basis points. A basis point is equal to one-hundredth of one percent.
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Xcel Energy-Colorado has filed a request for a new electric rate increase, which follows a recently approved natural gas rate hike and a $182.2 million jump in revenue for electric service that took effect in April. The request submitted to regulators Wednesday proposed a $312.2 million revenue increase. ... Critics of Xcel’s recent rate cases have accused the utility of “a pancaking” of increases. The PUC approved a $64.2 million rise in the utility’s natural gas rates in October. Regulators slashed the utility’s original proposal by $138 million. ... If the increase is approved, the typical residential bill would rise...
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Do I hear Drums Along The Potomac or East River?? The hawkish drumbeat from central bankers is raising fears of a downturn, with global bonds joining US peers in signaling a recession, as a gauge measuring the worldwide yield curve inverted for the first time in at least two decades. The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve, on the other hand, has been inverted for 107 straight months. And in Europe, 10-year sovereign yields are dropping like a paralyzed falcon. The world and US yield curves are pointing to trouble. And drums along the Potomac (DC) and East River (NYC).
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