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Influential investor says US inflation and growth are not at levels where interest rates can fall Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour. https://www.ft.com/content/680c17d1-0d55-4697-aff8-7dcca8c06679?accessToken=zwAGFb2KHEZYkc9oDBfRDVVGl9Ov-H3MqMBmeQ.MEUCIEKUOo8tpYNQH1TIRs1UXW0onmSrH2MkZ28gZyBrU5T-AiEAledOG31n_SXP-FsEVXres7m4-IDthSiN4Xyky3Mv9yQ&sharetype=gift&token=c10df47e-f8fc-4ea2-a059-1720789b4224 Persistent inflation and hot US growth have left the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting hopes “off track”, Bridgewater’s Bob Prince said on Tuesday, adding...

U.S. inflation pressures quickened again last month, with core price pressures also rising past Wall Street forecasts, a reading that will cast further doubt on market bets for a June interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The headline consumer price index for March was pegged by the Commerce Department at 3.5%, rising from the prior month's tally of 3.2% and coming in ahead of Wall Street's 3.4% consensus forecast. On a monthly basis, inflation edged 0.4% higher, matching the 0.4% gain in February but also coming in ahead of Wall Street's 0.3% forecast. So-called core inflation, which strips out...

Rates on U.S. government debt jumped Friday morning after data showed the U.S. created far more jobs than expected in March and signaled that the economy might be speeding up. What’s happening The yield on the 2-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD02Y was 4.710%, up 6.9 basis points from 4.641% on Thursday. Yields move in the opposite direction to prices. The yield on the 10-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD10Y was 4.382%, up 7.4 basis points from 4.308% on Thursday. The yield on the 30-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD30Y was 4.533%, up 6.4 basis points from 4.470% on Thursday. Yields were on track for their largest one-day jumps...

The staggering amount of Fed money printing combined with insane, reckless spending by The Federal government (hereafter called The Feral Government) has caused massive distortion in the US economy. The result of excessive money printing and excess spending (and Feral debt)? First, the Freddie Mac House Price Index increased in February, up 5.9% year-over-year. Second, the US Treasury 10-year yield is up tp 4.35%, the highest in 2024. Third, with the 10-year Treasury rising towards 5%, watch for the 30-year mortgage rate to rise AGAIN making housing even more unaffordable. Or as Robert Palmer almost sang, Simply Unaffordable. Today, the...

Jerome Powell and The Federal Reserve have to make a decision about tightening monetary policy or loosening it. It’s a Presidential election year and The Fed will probably do what is necessary to support The Biden Administration’s re-election. But let’s look at the various conflicting economic indicators that are causing confusion at The Fed. First, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation wasn’t hotter than expected in February, which could keep a mid year interest rate cut on the table. The year-over-year change in the so-called “core” Personal Consumption Expenditures index — which excludes volatile food and energy prices —...

Well, this might keep The Fed talking heads up at night. Over the past year or so, the Fed has been intensely discussing inflation in “core services,” which is where inflation had shifted to in 2022, from goods inflation which had spiked into mid-2022 but then cooled dramatically. So “core services” is where it’s at. Core services is where consumers spend the majority of their money. Core services are all services except energy services. Core services inflation has been behaving badly for months, and in January, it spiked out the wazoo. The “core services” PCE price index spiked to 7.15%...

The average annual percentage rate (APR) on credit cards nearly doubled to 22.8 percent in 2023 from 12.9 percent in 2013, costing consumers around $25 billion in interest fees last year, according to a new analysis by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). The average APR hit the highest level on record at the end of last year, according to the bureau’s analysis of data from the Federal Reserve, which started tracking it in 1994. The surge in the overall average APR comes as credit card debt has hit an all time high. U.S. credit card debt topped $1.1 trillion...

Is it sundown for the US mortgage market? Mortgage applications decreased 10.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 16, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 10.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 8 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 10 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was...

The Federal Reserve (aka, The Keep) is back in the saddle again. The Fed has been unable to control inflation since Federal government spending was so fast and furious after Covid that little thought was given to the long-term ramifications of insane spending. Example? Home price growth is rising again. Home prices in traditional “bubble cities” out west were cooling, but are reaccelerating. Even Detroit and Cleveland are seeing rapid home price acceleration. In retrospect, this wholesale dovish euphoria may have been rather short sighted, because after several strong economist reports hit the tape (with the Nov 2024 election growing...

A wave of inflationary signals means that the Federal Reserve's next move could be a rate hike, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said. "There's a meaningful chance, maybe it's 15%, that the next move is going to be upwards in rates, not downwards," Summers said during an interview on Bloomberg TV on Friday, adding that the Fed has to be "very careful." His read on recent key inflation indicators in January, including a 3.1% year-over-year increase in the consumer price index and a 0.9% rise in the producer price index, formed the basis of his rationale. He added that the...

Rate increases will go into effect April 1, 2024.. As Holy Cross Energy experiences increased costs due to higher-than-normal inflation and constraints in the supply chain throughout the entire economy, its board of directors approved an increase to its monthly customer rates in January 2024. The increase will be based on individual rate classes and go into effect starting April 1, 2024. This increase addresses rising costs due to inflation and better aligns Holy Cross Energy rates with how its actual costs are incurred. Small and large members are separated by their monthly demand reading falling below or above 50kW....

Wake Joe up before the economy go goes … down any further. Mortgage applications decreased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 9, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent compared with the...

Starting this month, 145,000 Wyoming ratepayers will make a down payment on what's projected to add up to billions of dollars in additional costs. Regulators recently approved Black Hills Energy's new $1.1 million surcharge on utility bills to research the viability of adding controversial carbon capture technologies to coal-fired power plants. Rob Joyce, acting director of the Wyoming Chapter of the Sierra Club, said the rate increases are due to the state's mandate for utilities to continue burning coal. "The people who benefit from these kinds of policies are the legislators who are connected to legacy fossil fuel companies, utilities...

A sense of foreboding emerges as 91% of fund managers unite in the belief that interest rates are destined to fall. This unnervingly high consensus has historically preceded major market downturns, reminiscent of the Dotcom bear market in 2000-2001, the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, and the Covid panic in 2020.

American homebuyers are going down the road of Bidenomics and feeling bad. Is this the roadmap for the US?? Existing Home Sales fell 1.0% MoM in December, worse than the +0.3% expected, leaving sales down Source: Bloomberg Total Existing Home Sales in December 2023 were 3.78mm – the lowest SAAR since 2010… Source: Bloomberg But, on an annual basis, this is the worst year on record (back to at least 1995).. Source: Bloomberg “The latest month’s sales look to be the bottom before inevitably turning higher in the new year,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Mortgage rates are meaningfully...

The Fed had better think twice about expected rate cuts. The market just isn’t feeling it. Treasury yields rose Wednesday, with the 10-year yield touching almost 4.10% as investors focused on stronger-than-expected December retail sales and the latest remarks from Federal Reserve members. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was recently up 4 basis points at 4.108% after briefly getting to 4.117%, the highest since Dec. 13. The 2-year Treasury yield rose by around 11 basis points to trade at 4.335%. December’s retail sales data indicated strong consumer demand at the holidays. Retail sales increased 0.6% for the month,...

Mortgage rates fell for the ninth week in a row amid signs that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates next year. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate fell to 6.61 percent as of Dec. 28, down from 6.67 percent the previous week, according to new data released Thursday by Freddie Mac. Mortgage rates dipped below 7 percent in mid-December for the first time since August after the Federal Reserve forecasted rate cuts next year. “The rapid descent of mortgage rates over the last two months stabilized a bit this week, but rates continue to trend down,” said Sam Khater,...

Review 2024 Veterans disability compensation rates. Use our compensation benefits rate tables to find your monthly payment amount. We base your monthly payment amount on your disability rating and details about your dependent family members. How to use the tables to find your monthly payment Find your basic rate Go to the compensation rates for your disability rating. On the Basic monthly rates table, find the amount for your disability rating and dependent status. This is your basic monthly rate. Example (Veteran with no children): If you’re a Veteran with a 30% disability rating, and you have a dependent spouse...

The Federal Reserve’s recent dovish turn, suggesting a possible recession or political strategy, has added a layer of complexity to the challenges faced by the Biden administration. President Biden, grappling with declining poll numbers and economic uncertainties, relies on the Fed’s decisions to shape the narrative leading up to November’s elections. Amid positive economic indicators, such as low unemployment and robust growth, the unexpected move towards falling rates strategically aims to bolster the administration’s appeal to voters. The potential of seven rate cuts underscores the severity of the looming economic downturn.

It has been over three years since the disastrous Covid economic shutdowns of 2020. And here we are again! US investment-grade bond yields have just had the biggest two-day drop since April 2020. And the US Treasury 10Y-2Y curve remains steeply inverted. Help me Jerome!