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One of the few pollsters who accurately predicted that President Donald Trump would win the 2016 presidential election told Newsweek he feels "more confident every day" that Trump will also win his bid for re-election. Key to Trump's path to victory are his "shy" supporters who aren't necessarily telling most pollsters the truth about who they will vote for because of societal pressures that have only grown in the last four years, according to Robert Cahaly, a pollster and senior strategist with the Atlanta-based polling company Trafalgar Group.

Robert Cahaly: What we are seeing is a movement toward Trump with late breakers. We are also seeing folks that had initially given every indication that they were going to support Biden or they were undecided moving toward Trump. And the issue we see moving on is the shutdowns. Even young people we’ve identified who don’t like the president. They like shutdowns even less. Even suburban women who said they have problems with the president, they like their children home and shutdowns even less. https://youtu.be/l0piu1sZ_ZA

Breakdown of a few swing states (by date): Pennsylvania November 2, 2020 Trump – 47.8% Biden – 45.9% Ohio November 1, 2020 Trump – 49.2% Biden – 44.4% Michigan November 1, 2020 Trump – 48.3% Biden – 45.8% North Carolina October 31, 2020 Trump – 48.6% Biden – 46.5% Arizona October 30, 2020 Trump – 48.9% Biden – 46.4% Nevada October 29, 2020 Biden – 49.4% Trump – 47.1%

MI Nov 1, 2020 Presidential Poll TOTALS (with leans) Donald Trump 48.3% Joe Biden 45.8% Jo Jorgensen 1.7% Someone Else 1.3% Undecided 3.0%

Trump - 47.8% Biden - 45.7%

Hannity interview of Robert Cahaly (Trafalgar) -- Best pollster from 2016 Hannity asked him about other pollsters who say they have made adjustments since 2016. C: They say they have made adjustments, but the next race we saw that had this "social desirability bias," you know shy voters was the race for Governor of Florida and they all got it wrong again so I don't buy that they've made any adjustments. I'll take Michael Moore's understanding of average people over all those pollsters in a bag every single day. I don't see them understanding people aren't straight forward when it...

New Trafalgar poll of Nevada released in the last hour.

New Trafalgar poll of Florida released in the last hour.

New Trafalgar poll of Michigan released in the last hour.

Joe Biden 47.5% Donald Trump 47.1% Jo Jorgensen 3.1% Someone Else 1.2% Undecided 1.1%

Earlier this week, we wrote about the Trafalgar Group, an outlier pollster that routinely produces rosier results for President Trump's re-election prospects than any of its competitors. If you're on the Trump Train, you love Trafalgar, and you likely already know that its data was much more predictive of some of Trump's upset victories in 2016 -- not to mention calling the 2018 Florida governor's race correctly when basically no one else did. That said, you may be less interested in the outfit's big swings and misses, like overestimating Brian Kemp's victory margin in Georgia's gubernatorial contest last cycle by ten...

Top 2016 pollsters Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Group and Matt Towery of Insider Advantage joined Sean Hannity on Tuesday night to discuss the latest 2020 election numbers. Both Cahaly and Towery told Sean President Trump has the highest numbers in the black community of any GOP presidential candidate Top 2016 pollsters Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Group and Matt Towery of Insider Advantage joined Sean Hannity on Tuesday night to discuss the latest 2020 election numbers. Both Cahaly and Towery told Sean President Trump has the highest numbers in the black community of any presidential candidate

Donald Trump 48.4% Joe Biden 47.6%

Guest Piece by America’s History Teacher, Larry Schweikart Confession: I rarely watch conservative, or so-called conservative, news sites. You can get some information that way, but I find it much more instructive to watch the reactions of liberals to the stories of the day. That is an instant indicator of who is winning and losing. For example, if the Washington Post says “Trump must change tone or face loss,” you know that Trump’s tone is deadly effective. Or, if Politico headlines “Some Senator Say McConnell Moving Too Fast on Barrett Nomination,” you know that Yertle is moving at light speed...

Trafalgar Group head pollster Robert Cahaly told Fox News on Monday evening that he thinks President Trump will win the November 3 election despite most polls showing Joe Biden ahead.

Thanks to the hidden support from voters who are embarrassed to admit they will vote for Donald Trump, the president will be narrowly reelected on Nov. 3, says one of the few pollsters who correctly predicted his 2016 victory. Pollster Robert Cahaly, the head of the Georgia-based Trafalgar Group, saw interest in his company skyrocket in 2016 after he bucked the consensus of other pollsters and forecast that Trump would beat Democrat Hillary Clinton in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two states that were crucial to his victory. He credits a proprietary model of calculating a polling sample that takes into account...

The latest state polling by the Trafalgar Group predicts another win for President Trump in the upper 270’s to low 280’s in the Electoral College, but the CEO highlights a couple of big cautions for Republicans. In an lengthy interview on the National Review “The Editors” podcast, the Trafalgar Group CEO Robert Cahaly told NR’s Rich Lowry that he predicts Trump will win the battleground states of Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Texas. He said things are tighter in Wisconsin and Arizona, though Cahaly says Trump has the lead and will “probably win” in Arizona. Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #FL #BattlegroundState...

The polling aggregator on the website RealClearPolitic shows the margin in polls led by Joe Biden in a blue font and the ones led by Donald Trump in red. For a while, the battleground states have tended to be uniformly blue, except for polls conducted by the Trafalgar Group. If you are a firm believer only in polling averages, this isn’t particularly meaningful, but if you are familiar with Trafalgar’s successes in 2016, when (unlike other pollsters) it had Trump leading in Michigan and Pennsylvania and, in 2018, Ron DeSantis winning his gubernatorial race, it is notable. Regardless, it’s worth...

All these Media polls out there suggesting a Biden win are discouraging. That is their purpose. Most, however, over sample Democrats by 8% or more. Ridiculous. The two parties achieved relative parity years ago. But, the Atlanta-based Trafalgar Group was the most accurate state pollster four years ago. In fact, they were the only pollster to predict candidate Trump’s 2016 wins in both Pennsylvania and Michigan. Think about that. Quite a feat! So, Don’t let yourself get discouraged. Be of good cheer! A few of their most recent polls are below.

I try to give Trafalgar every benefit of the doubt after its stunning success in 2016 and 2018 but I’m a leeeetle skeptical of this one. Especially since they also have Republican John James leading incumbent Gary Peters for Peters’s Senate seat. That’s the first time James has led in any poll all year. Until today, the closest he’d been was three points behind a few weeks ago. Another reason to be skeptical: This poll was conducted between August 14 and 23, a period encompassing the entire Democratic convention and before the Republican convention had begun. Is it impossible that...