Davis ekes out 7-point lead over Simon-Poll shows voters against hopeful rather than for governor

SF Chronicle ^ | 7/11/02 | Lynda Gledhill

[randita]

Sacramento -- Despite Gov. Gray Davis' problems with a state contracting scandal, a budget deficit and criticism over his fund-raising tactics, California voters reluctantly give him a 7-point lead over Los Angeles businessman Bill Simon, a Field Poll released today shows.

[randita]

"A more moderate, perhaps more experienced candidate would be in a much stronger position to take advantage of Davis' weakness," said Bruce Cain, a political science professor at UC Berkeley.

Someone like..errr..uhh..umm..Dan Lundgren.

[randita]

This poll appears to be just of "voters". A poll of "likely voters" might reveal a closer race.

[Dog Gone]

Even though the Field Poll is notoriously liberal, and skews its results toward the Democrat every time, this ain't good news.

[Bigg Red]

A poll of "likely voters" might reveal a closer race.

We can only hope...

[GraniteStateConservative]

Yeah, Davis' lead has been cut in half if I recall -- down from 14 points.

The thing that could hurt Davis is that if voters aren't scared of a Gov. Simon (even if they don't want to vote for him), then the lack of support for Davis may just keep Davis' voters home on Election Day. Two things get voters out: enthusiasm or anger/fear.

[TheBattman]

If this poll is even close to accurate, it simply reinforces my opinion of the "typical" People's Republic of Kalifornia "Citizen" (subject).

I really don't mean to offend any Freepers who live in California, but darn - how can you stand it. Pretty scenerey and reasonable temperatures and weather will only get you so far. Obviously, the conservatives who are left are so outnumbered (or lazy) that they are not getting anything fixed there. Instead they just export more of their garbage liberals to surrounding states to spread their infection (just ask folks in Colorado, Idah, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, etc.) Heck, we even feel the cancer all the way over here in Arkansas - there are pockets of liberals that are not the "typical" liberal for around here -

The typical liberal here in Arkansas is the one that just wants a free handout (especially in the Delta area). The liberals that are infected with the Kalifornia strain of liberalism are very politically and socially leftist.

< / rant off>

[SoCalConservative]

We do what we can to stem the tide, Battman. I don't quite understand your statement that conservatives are "exporting" liberals to another state though. I don't think we have much say in that. We have 3 fairly large cities here in California, only one of which has a large conservative population (San Diego). I don't need to tell you how hard it is to fight against the liberal tides of San Fran and L.A.!

I'll tell ya what, Battman. Given your concern, why don't you bust out and move here, we could use the helping hand!?!

[goldstategop]

No. Dick Riordan remember? He couldn't even carry L.A County! And the liberal Field poll doesn't really have good news for GrayDown --- he has only a 7 point lead over Bill Simon despite his high negatives. But what the Field poll and the liberal media is NOT telling readers is that when you factor in the margin of error, GrayDown's lead is statistically insignificant. Which means in reality the election is still very much up for grabs. What irritates the San Francisco Chronicle and the rest of the mainstream media is Simon is still a viable contender and a conservative isn't supposed to have shot in liberal California! Finally the Field Poll uses a SMALL sample of likely voters and these are probably weighed heavily in GrayDown's favor, unlike virtually every other poll that shows Simon ahead. We'll see which side is right come November.

[goldstategop]

Exactly. GrayDown no longer has that double digit lead from the earlier Field Poll. Which can mean only one thing --- he's in big trouble. He's lost HALF his lead in just three months and if this is a trend he'll be behind by a double digit margin behind Simon by the time November arrives. Not that the liberal media would ever admit it. They'll try to keep the impression that GrayDown can be re-elected as long as they can but people aren't fooled. His negatives are just too high.

[AppyPappy]

Living proof that negative campaigning works. The media has demonized Simon right out of the race.

[daviddennis]

Au contraire, my friend. This is horrible news for Davis.

It's important to look at trends, and to compare like with like. It looks bad because we see a spate of polls with Simon ahead, and then this. But remember, the Field Poll has a pro-Democrat bias. The last Field Poll shows Davis 14 points ahead. So between April and July, he's dropped 7 points, with hardly any ads from Simon.

If we adjust this for likely voters, especially in a race where the Democratic incumbent is not well liked, a different picture emerges. And remember that Davis' lead consists of a lot of unlikely voters - for instance, latinos and people making under $40,000 a year.

I'll leave the pollsters with the final word:

"The percentage of voters choosing Davis over Simon has been edging down," DiCamillo said. "That is symbolic of the governor's situation. He is really not expanding his voter base. And, in fact, it is actually contracting over time. That has to be worrisome."

D

[goldstategop]

The media has no love for Simon. What's amazing is he's still in the race despite their obvious cheerleading on GrayDown's behalf. Don't be deceived by the quotes of so called experts like Bruce Cain. These were the same experts who predicted RINO Dick Riordan would be handed the GOP gubernatorial nomination until the election surprised them. The polls slowly changed and Simon pulled off the upset of the century in the primary. I'll wager a bet the establishment will be flummoxed GrayDown was beaten by a nobody in November. To them, conservatives are nobodies.

GO SIMON!!!

[goldstategop]

The proof in the pudding is GrayDown's moves to try to reassure and motivate his base. Why do you think he's been running commercials in the middle of the summer and signing anti-SUV legislation? He shouldn't have to veer Left if he had the Rat base locked up. He can't even move to appeal to the moderate electorate and that can mean only one thing --- GrayDown is caught between a rock and a hard place. Which despite the new Field Poll notwithstanding, doesn't bode well for him this Fall.

[BibChr]

...here in Arkansas....

...and that's where you lost me, in your anti-"Kalifornia" rant.

I have often said that the voters of Arkansas have a tremendous lot to apologize for, in having given He Who Will Not Be Named a platform from which to take leadership of, and corrupt, America.

But as soon as I say that, I always think of our two Senatrixes, one of whom (BB) has to be the dumbest woman in the Senate. (She'd have much more competition in Congress.) And so I'm not too loud; we have much for which to apologize, too.

But that slices both ways, compadre.

Dan

[jetson]

ALLWAYS REMEMBER THAT " LIBERALISM IS A MENTAL DISORDER" AND ANYTHING YOU HEAR THAT IS IN THEIR FAVOR IS PROBRABLY A LIE OR A FIGMENT OF THEIR IMAGINATION.

[TheBattman]

You are correct, sir. And for that, I do appologize.

The best thing for Arkansas regarding the person/people you left un-named, is that they are New York's problem now!

Notice though, that Republicans are making real inroads here in Arkansas - Governor and Lt. Governor, a growing list of State legislators, local races, etc. I think at least some Arkansans have learned their lessons from the "Chief Fornicator" that will remain un-named.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Thanks for the ping!

Guess I will go with the Manure Movers Logo on this one.

calgov2002:

calgov2002: for old calgov2002 articles. 

calgov2002: for new calgov2002 articles. 

Other Bump Lists at: Free Republic Bump List Register

[dpwiener]

The proof in the pudding is GrayDown's moves to try to reassure and motivate his base. Why do you think he's been running commercials in the middle of the summer and signing anti-SUV legislation?

You make a good point. Here's my blog comment:

The latest poll is not good news for Gray Davis

I've been very skeptical in the past about Simon's prospects, about the competence of his campaign advisors, and about Simon's failure to aggressively define himself after his upset primary victory. And I keep pointing out that Gray Davis should not be underestimated -- campaigning and raising money for campaigning is his life. But his manifestly-obvious incompetence and corruption as governor may ultimately trump everything else.

As someone who has lived in California for over 30 years, it's been my personal observation that the Field Poll has a heavy liberal slant (both ideologically and methodologically), and that it is routinely off by 5 to 10 points in that direction as compared to actual election results. When the previous Field Poll showed Davis with a 14 point lead, I had to conclude that Davis was really ahead (albeit by a much slimmer margin). This latest Field Poll tells me that Davis and Simon are in a dead heat, or possibly that Simon has an extremely narrow lead. More importantly, this Field Poll shows a definite, substantial shift in Simon's favor, which has to be extremely bad news for Davis. If Davis' campaign strategy was working, he'd have successfully demonized Simon by now, and Simon would be fading away as a viable challenger. Instead Simon is gaining credibility, and the media is focussing on Davis' problems.

The proof of the pudding will be when the Davis camp starts to actively attack Green candidate Peter Camejo for his "devisiveness", and begins comparing the situation to the 2000 election in which Nader cost Gore the Presidency. That will be the tip-off that Davis' internal polls and focus groups show him headed to likely defeat. The thing is, none of the Democrats in California are truly going to care! A lot of them did care about Gore, and hated Bush, and were extremely upset that Nader split the liberal vote. But the most that Democrat voters will do this year is to hold their noses while they vote for Davis, because they don't want a Republican in office.

Those liberals who can't stand the stench even with nose plugs will vote for Camejo or not vote at all. And if that costs Davis the Governorship? Oh well.

[Liz]

Davis' unfavorable ratings have remained about 50 percent since May 2001, several months after last year's energy crisis. The new poll found
percent of those surveyed had a negative view of the governor, to 37 percent who rated him favorably and 12 percent with no opinion.

Candidates weigh negatives more than the likelies.

[ElkGroveDan]

This is the Field poll. While political pollsters call from lists of actual voters and determine voting likelihood from past voter history..The Field poll call everyone who picks up the phone and asks them if they are registered to vote and if they voted in the last election. One study shows that almost 20% lie in the affirmative on both counts. Field also oversamples the San Francisco Bay area. That is why Field has predicted Governor Bradley twice, Governor Feinstein, Governor Kathleen Brown and the defeat of Proposition 13 to name a few.

The fact is that according to the serious poll done by Public Opinion Surveys, Bill Simon is ahead by 8 points. This is confirmed by several legislative Democrat polls that have leaked out of the Capitol.

Don't ever believe what you read in the Field poll.