Posted on 07/30/2002 6:29:47 PM PDT by Impeach98
Amen! A worthy investment indeed.
From what I understand, Republicans tend to show up at the polls in greater numbers than Democrats. This is something very difficult to quantify in polls, since everyone says they're going to vote. (Nobody likes telling pollsters that they won't).
In the end, then, in a normal election, about 5% fewer Democrats will show up. So if we had a 50/50 election, the Republican would win 55-45. In this case, we can see that the Democratic candidate is enormously unappealing. So I think we'll see democratic turnout drop by another 5%, so Simon, if the numbers hold roughly as they do, should win by 10-12%.
If the greens gain any kind of traction, it could be even more of a disaster for Davis. They might capture 5% of the vote, and at least 4 of that 5% is going to come from Davis.
So Simon might win by as much as 18 points with all that taken into account.
So what hope does Davis have to win? Well, I find it intriguing that even the pro choice crowd prefers Davis by only 16%. This means that either pro-choice people are unusually comfortable with Simon's neutrality on the issue, pro-choicers are simply not well infomed yet, or many of them are too appalled by the Davis record to make this their primary issue. Pro-life folks support Simon with a crushing 36% majority (meaning 86% support Simon), so I would think Davis' best strategy would be to run some fear-mongering pro-abortion commercials to try and win back his base. The Simon camp should be ready with a response. Something funny. Hmmmm ....
Simon: I realize a lot of you are concerned about the abortion issue. Well, so am I - and so is my wife. I'm pro-life, she's pro-choice. We argue about it all the time, but in the end our response has to be to respect both points of view.It is reassuring that the global warming issue doesn't seem to be helping Davis. I suspect that for every person who applauds the anti-SUV bill, there is someone who's switched his vote to Simon because of it. I notice that women particularly like SUVs, and this might be part of what's closing the gender gap from its traditional levels.The Governor of California cannot ban abortion, even if it was my fondest wish. And if I tried, my wife would have to kill me. So don't worry about abortion this year, whether you're for it or against it. The law on abortion isn't going to change.
We have more important issues to worry about, things we all agree on. Better schools. A sound budget, instead of a runaway train careening out of control. What we need is someone willing to think past the current crisis to the future.
And that man isn't Gray Davis.
Vote Simon, the thinking person's governor.
D
Have you ever wondered why TV Networks play RERUNS during this time of year??? It's because NO ONE is watching TV!
The TV campaign in't effective until after Labor Day when everyone is back from vacation and watching their regular sitcoms again. Davis has SOOOOOOOOOOOO much money and he is SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO desperate that he began running ads when they really aren't effective. After $8 million this summer, look at the poll numbers above.
Bill Simon knows exactly what he is doing. "Amateur" would be for Simon to blow his money now in the summer so that only Davis can aford to run ads in the fall when the voters are paying attention.
Think of the old battle admonition when you are conserving your ammo -- wait until you see the whites of their eyes.
Simon knows exactly what he is doing and so do his media consultants. Davis is the one without focus or direction. This very poll bears that out. In the media polls Simon has gone from 14 down, to 7 down, to 2 ahead.
Eight percent were undecided.
This is good news. If you factor in the usual liberal bias of most polling data (perhaps save Zogby's), and if you factor in the fact that most undecided voters swing towards the challenger late in the race, Mr. Simon has a good chance as it now stands to be the next governor of California. And if he doesn't screw up, he might be the President in 2009. The only way for the Democrats to win an election is to get California. If we can get California, they don't stand a chance.
Independent is liberal-media-speak for left-leaning.
I would think he will win Orange County with no problem, but the area has changed a great deal over the years, particuarly in the older areas in North Orange County. There's been a lot of growth in ethnic communities, and not all of them have arrived here legally. Even some of those that were staunch Republican, like the Vietnamese in Garden Grove and Westminster, are registering as Dem's in larger numbers as the young who have no memory of life under communism find it more attractive to gain power through the group politics of ethnic identity. Add to that government efforts to promote "diversity" with section eight housing and you have a lot more people ready to pull the lever for the Rat's.
This is not to say that Americans of different backgrounds are automatically a bad thing and the county should be Lilly white. But the fact is that the Dem's use identity politics to their advantage and promote a wedge between white males and all those they have "oppressed", but I'm sure all of us here know that.
Added to all this is the growth of the area, which means more public school teachers, DMV and Caltrans workers, university professors, city clerks, and so forth. I wonder which way they vote?
Many of us were fervently praying during the post-election Florida drama...It was a miracle.
Simon being Catholic doesn't hurt.
This is key. We have a natural constituency with Hispanics that we have ignored because the activist Hispanics are a bunch of liberals.
The fact is, conservative Republican principles resonate with Hispanic citizens, particularly parents who want their children to learn English, go to college, get a good job, and raise a family. Parents who don't want their kids to be taken behind their backs for abortions or birth control or be taught that homosexuality is normal.
Wait ... sounds that the average white conservative family! Well, well, well ... maybe we have more in common than we think.
Go Simon!
We also have a problem "right here in River City," so to speak, with some of our own concerning Hispanics, if you get my drift.
I had people telling me in November that if Simon doesn't get out there up on radio and television, then he'll never win. I said, well, I think it would be STUPID to run political commercials between Jingle Bells and Silent Night.
After Jan. 1 Simon went up with positive commercials, and everyone said that Simon can't make it up with only 4% in the polls, it's too late, Riordan's going to win. Unless of course Simon starts attacking Riordan early.
When Simon didn't attack Riordan early, everyone said, well, he's a nice guy but he can't win, he won't do what it takes, he's too far back in the polls, it's too little too late, etc., etc.
Simon DID attack Riordan and THANK GOD he didn't listen to all you armchair political consultants who said he should start attacking while Santa Claus was coming to town! But even AFTER the negative campaign ads, people said it was too late.
Well, who won? Simon! But how much? 19 points! Landslide.
So to all your armchair consultants who constantly criticized the Simon team in the primary because YOU would have done things differently, maybe you should re-think your OWN strategy.
The Simon campaign is not perfect, but the strategy is sound. Davis is WASTING MONEY and LOSING SUPPORT the more he's on the air. He should shut up and crawl into a hole, he'll have a better chance of winning.
You know, people are NOT FOCUSED on the campaign now and it would be a complete waste of money to do a massive media campaign over the summer. Why do the networks play reruns all summer? Because no one is there to watch their stupid shows!!!!!!!
Simon is doing what he should be doing, going out and meeting PEOPLE who will VOTE, building the grassroots, making the 4% of the activists happy so they'll do 90% of the work after Labor Day.
Simon CAN win with 4% ... it was that 4% early in the primary that worked hard to give him nearly 50% on election day. It'll be that same 4% who will work hard to give him more than 50% on November 5th.
Go Simon!
I have said since the primary that there are many similarities of manner between our President and Bill Simon, in the way they communicate and why they appeal to the average apolitical voter.
I think the fact that in this poll Davis is only leading by 4 points among women is an important fact ... he can't count on the women vote. Maybe we're not all that keen about killing our babies, Mr. Davis!
Simon is pro-life. But he doesn't have the hard edge that Lungren had, and he's appealing to all voters regardless of their position.
Most people don't vote on the abortion issue, for Life or for Death. It's like the 5th, 6th, 10th concern. The reason that pro-aborts are comfortable with Simon is because they are more concerned about other issues (like taxes, education, transportation, the economy, the budget, power, etc, etc.)
The best thing for Simon to do is let Davis be shrill on the abortion issue and solidify OUR base for US. They he can turn to Davis and say, "Alright, now everyone knows that I'm pro-life and you're pro-choice. Let's talk about your failed energy policies that tied California into 46 billion in long-term contracts, the fact that you squandered an $8 billion surplus to by over-priced electricity on the spot market, leaving us with a $24 billion deficit. Let's talk about your pay-to-play policies -- prison guards, corporate polluters, etc., etc."
We need to turn the tables on Davis by focusing on the issues people CARE ABOUT. No matter how strongly anyone feels about abortion, if the electorate doesn't think it's an issue, it's not going to be a deciding factor in the election.
But WHATEVER Simon does, he can't piss off his base or they will stay home.
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