Posted on 07/30/2002 6:29:47 PM PDT by Impeach98
If this is an example of the higher math utilized in these polls, then by my calculations Simon is ahead by 12 points.
Spread the word.
Even blacks seem to be getting the message - they normally vote about 90% Democratic; 72% Democratic is 18% under the norm.
How dare you use real math - don't you know you will upset the Cal Demorats.
If the poll showed Gray Dumpus ahead, of course it would be 2 points.... I guess you have to automatically subtract a point whenever it is a republican ahead.
ELECT SIMON
This, BTW, is exactly why it's going to be almost mathematically impossible for Bush to be beaten in 2004. The RATS needed every last black voter they could "knock and drag" to the polls (often against the voter's will) to just barely eke out that "popular vote win" in 2000.
(And even that was completely due to massive fraud, since the overwhelmingly RAT-biased networks called Florida before the polls closed in the overwhelmingly-GOP Central Time Zone counties, costing Bush at least 10,000 votes, and probably much more than that. Then they called races for Gore almost instantaneously the moment they had even the slightest bit of evidence that Gore might win the given state, while they literally waited over three hours in some cases to award states to Bush even when Bush had an insurmountable, unquestionable lead in that state. Basically, they fought like hell to get the word out that Gore had pretty much wrapped things up by 8 pm EASTERN, which meant the majority of the country still had from 1 to four hours left to vote. But they were told that Gore had won so many states that "barring a miracle" Bush was toast. So lots of GOPers left the lines at the polling place and just went home, or never bothered to drive to the polling place at all. It's been proven that Bush lost, at MINIMUM, 2 million votes this way, and an argument can be made that he may have lost anywhere from that number up to TEN MILLION votes, because every journalist in the country was telling them their vote was meaningless. It also probably cost us several House seats for the same reason, and maybe even one or two Senate seats, though the latter is a harder argument to make.)
Back to my main point: The RATS needed that 90%, plus massive voter fraud, just to get as close as they did. If they lose even 2% or so of the black vote to the GOP, they are DOOMED. The networks will not be able to get away with their pro-rat tricks again in 2004 either, because millions of us will have prepared ahead of time to warn GOP voters not to believe for one second the intentional trickery and outright lies that the media will try to bombard them with on Election Day evening. A ~30% Bush vote by the black electorate, plus the neutralization of the networks' one-night smear campaign, means there's practically no way Bush can lose in 2004 unless he somehow manages to find himself embroiled in a scandal of Watergate proportions, which is highly doubtful since he actually has a personal code of ethics.
Ummmm, first Tuesday next November?
1)When imcumbents, regardless of party affiliation, find themselves running neck-and-neck with their challenger, that means they're in very deep trouble. For most incumbents, reelection campaigns are mere cakewalks, and they remain well ahead of their opponent throughout the campaign. But if they're running neck-and-neck, what that really means is that a significant percentage of voters have already decided they like Simon more than Davis, but simply aren't willing to "officially switch" in their minds just yet because there's still over three months until the election and they think "Hey, anything can happen" so they publicly stick with Davis. But that "anything" rarely does happen, so in the end most of them will make the "official" switch in their minds and end up voting for Simon on Election Day.
2) All polls have a Democratic bias. I don't mean that in the sense that, say, NPR is biased towards RATS, only that all political opinion polls end up overstating the RAT popularity levels by a few points. Nobody's ever been able to prove exactly why this is, but many (including myself) think this is purely because we're still living under a PC cloud, where millions of GOP voters are unwilling to publicly state their true preference because they're afraid of being ostracized at work, called a "racist" or "bigot," etc. For many of these people, they're so scared they won't even admit a Republican preference to an anonymous person on the other end of the phone who doesn't even know who they called because the polling computer just made up a phone number at random. But then on election day, the go in and vote a straight GOP ticket.
Both of these taken together means Simon almost certainly has at least a 5-8 point lead over Davis at the moment, and quite possibly more.
I agree emphatically, Timesink. I believe the Dems maxed out in '02, what with the Green vote switching to Gore, the 100%+ turnout in black urban precincts, double voting college students, media bias, etc. So even with no change in popular opinion, Bush would win easily in a re-run. Of course, there HAS been a SIGNIFICANT change in public opinion to go along with all that.
It's the House and Senate majorities that are important at this time, however. Let us pray, and work for victory!
A better indicator would be a "Likely voter" poll. That type factors in actual voting patterns. In CA Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats - this tends to balance out the Democrats registration edge. Congressional, State Assembly, and State Senate districts that are not at least +5% Democrat registration advantage are considered "in play" for Republicans.
There are two other key points for this Gubinatorial election. The Green Party candidate is polling about 5% of the vote when listed in to poll questionaire. Almost all of that liberal vote is pulled from the Davis column. Will these voters stay Green? Or will the bleed back to Davis (like Nader voters to Gore in the last Presidential election)? The other key point is the illegal/dead vote which greatly favors the Democrats. They have put a lot of money and effort into registering as many ineligible voters as possible. Also, the big, Democrat-dominated counties (such as Los Angeles and San Francisco) are way behind in cleaning up their voter polls. Hence, "standing absentee ballots" are sent to addresses of former residents, and are illegally voted by the current residents. Also, illegal aliens, mostly Mexican, vote in heavily Hispanic districts. (This is how Loretta Sanchez beat Robert Doren a few years ago.)
IMHO, Simon will not be safe from voter fraud unless he is up 10 points.
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