Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Bill Simon One Point Ahead - SurveyUSA Poll Shows Tight Governor's Race
Survey USA ^ | 07/30/2002 | Survey USA

Posted on 07/30/2002 6:29:47 PM PDT by Impeach98

Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill Simon has a narrow lead in a poll among potential voters.

The poll was conducted by News10 and SurveyUSA. Pollsters asked 861 likely California voters whom they would vote for if the election were held today. Nearly 47 percent said they would vote for Simon, and 45 percent said they would vote for Gov. Gray Davis.

Eight percent were undecided.

The margin of error is 3.4 percent.

Simon's lead was greatest in the Central Valley. Davis had the most support in the Bay Area and Los Angeles.

According to the poll, Simon led pro-life voters by 33 points. Davis led pro-choice voters by 16 points.

Men preferred Simon by 6 points. Women preferred Davis by 4 points.


TOPICS: Breaking News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: billsimon; calgov2002; california; governor; graydavis; knife
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-8081-89 next last
To: Impeach98
However, all bets could be wrong, as "Saint" Hillary made the sojourn to CA to speak for Davis. Once Hillary makes it clear where she and "herbILL" stand, Davis will resurge. CA has never said "No" to the clintoids. Indeed CA people have a bizarre addiction to the clintoid point-of-view.
21 posted on 07/30/2002 8:22:34 PM PDT by Theodore R.
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nickcarraway
If Simon leads Davis 47-45, then isn't he two points ahead?

If this is an example of the higher math utilized in these polls, then by my calculations Simon is ahead by 12 points.

Spread the word.

22 posted on 07/30/2002 8:27:24 PM PDT by Dr. Eckleburg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Impeach98
Some intriguing things about this poll:

People who worry about Davis' campaign war chest don't realize that all money can do is convey a message. If the message doesn't resonate with the voters, not even a billion dollars to blow will make a difference.
23 posted on 07/30/2002 8:28:57 PM PDT by daviddennis
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ElkGroveDan; TwoStep
Amazing isn't it. With Davis being able to outspend Simon and all those negative TV ads he is running one would think that he would get the message that WE WANT SIMON FOR GOVERNOR and the negative ads are backfiring on him. It just goes to show that "stupid is forever."
24 posted on 07/30/2002 8:29:08 PM PDT by broomhilda
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Impeach98
It will take a near miracle for Simon to overcome the inherent demographics. Godspeed.
25 posted on 07/30/2002 8:34:37 PM PDT by wardaddy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nickcarraway
Hmmm, if Simon leads Davis 47-45, then isn't he two points ahead?

How dare you use real math - don't you know you will upset the Cal Demorats.

If the poll showed Gray Dumpus ahead, of course it would be 2 points.... I guess you have to automatically subtract a point whenever it is a republican ahead.

ELECT SIMON

26 posted on 07/30/2002 8:41:21 PM PDT by chadsworth
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Impeach98
No surprise that the Central Valley is leading in support for Simon, as this is the conservative area of the state. It is sooo important that his message gets out to more people, his real message, not the one the RATS and the media are trying to get across.
27 posted on 07/30/2002 9:15:51 PM PDT by ladyinred
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Impeach98
When is this election?
28 posted on 07/30/2002 9:18:26 PM PDT by MHT
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: daviddennis
Even blacks seem to be getting the message - they normally vote about 90% Democratic; 72% Democratic is 18% under the norm.

This, BTW, is exactly why it's going to be almost mathematically impossible for Bush to be beaten in 2004. The RATS needed every last black voter they could "knock and drag" to the polls (often against the voter's will) to just barely eke out that "popular vote win" in 2000.

(And even that was completely due to massive fraud, since the overwhelmingly RAT-biased networks called Florida before the polls closed in the overwhelmingly-GOP Central Time Zone counties, costing Bush at least 10,000 votes, and probably much more than that. Then they called races for Gore almost instantaneously the moment they had even the slightest bit of evidence that Gore might win the given state, while they literally waited over three hours in some cases to award states to Bush even when Bush had an insurmountable, unquestionable lead in that state. Basically, they fought like hell to get the word out that Gore had pretty much wrapped things up by 8 pm EASTERN, which meant the majority of the country still had from 1 to four hours left to vote. But they were told that Gore had won so many states that "barring a miracle" Bush was toast. So lots of GOPers left the lines at the polling place and just went home, or never bothered to drive to the polling place at all. It's been proven that Bush lost, at MINIMUM, 2 million votes this way, and an argument can be made that he may have lost anywhere from that number up to TEN MILLION votes, because every journalist in the country was telling them their vote was meaningless. It also probably cost us several House seats for the same reason, and maybe even one or two Senate seats, though the latter is a harder argument to make.)

Back to my main point: The RATS needed that 90%, plus massive voter fraud, just to get as close as they did. If they lose even 2% or so of the black vote to the GOP, they are DOOMED. The networks will not be able to get away with their pro-rat tricks again in 2004 either, because millions of us will have prepared ahead of time to warn GOP voters not to believe for one second the intentional trickery and outright lies that the media will try to bombard them with on Election Day evening. A ~30% Bush vote by the black electorate, plus the neutralization of the networks' one-night smear campaign, means there's practically no way Bush can lose in 2004 unless he somehow manages to find himself embroiled in a scandal of Watergate proportions, which is highly doubtful since he actually has a personal code of ethics.

29 posted on 07/30/2002 9:25:16 PM PDT by Timesink
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: wardaddy
The electorate will be approx 68% white in 2002. If the Republican could pull 60% of the white vote, as they do in a NORMAL state, Simon would have it made...assuming he could do as "well" as Bush among Asians and Hispanics. Only in California would dimwit davis be competitive...God help them if he wins again
30 posted on 07/30/2002 9:26:17 PM PDT by Deport Billary
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: MHT
When is this election?

Ummmm, first Tuesday next November?

31 posted on 07/30/2002 9:31:17 PM PDT by BullDog108
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: mtngrl@vrwc
Very good news, especially for those of us in the Central Valley!
We rock!
32 posted on 07/30/2002 9:34:41 PM PDT by ladyinred
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: broomhilda
**Bump** ~~ "Stupid is forever"
33 posted on 07/30/2002 9:35:36 PM PDT by TwoStep
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: Impeach98
Two great things about this poll:

1)When imcumbents, regardless of party affiliation, find themselves running neck-and-neck with their challenger, that means they're in very deep trouble. For most incumbents, reelection campaigns are mere cakewalks, and they remain well ahead of their opponent throughout the campaign. But if they're running neck-and-neck, what that really means is that a significant percentage of voters have already decided they like Simon more than Davis, but simply aren't willing to "officially switch" in their minds just yet because there's still over three months until the election and they think "Hey, anything can happen" so they publicly stick with Davis. But that "anything" rarely does happen, so in the end most of them will make the "official" switch in their minds and end up voting for Simon on Election Day.

2) All polls have a Democratic bias. I don't mean that in the sense that, say, NPR is biased towards RATS, only that all political opinion polls end up overstating the RAT popularity levels by a few points. Nobody's ever been able to prove exactly why this is, but many (including myself) think this is purely because we're still living under a PC cloud, where millions of GOP voters are unwilling to publicly state their true preference because they're afraid of being ostracized at work, called a "racist" or "bigot," etc. For many of these people, they're so scared they won't even admit a Republican preference to an anonymous person on the other end of the phone who doesn't even know who they called because the polling computer just made up a phone number at random. But then on election day, the go in and vote a straight GOP ticket.

Both of these taken together means Simon almost certainly has at least a 5-8 point lead over Davis at the moment, and quite possibly more.

34 posted on 07/30/2002 9:36:18 PM PDT by Timesink
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: wardaddy
It will be very weird if Simon wins in Calif. and Perry loses in Texas.
35 posted on 07/30/2002 9:41:26 PM PDT by Tribune7
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: ElkGroveDan
Hey Dan, thanks for the ping.

I plan to precinct walk for John Brantuk for the 56th Assembly seat(our own Mr.B.goes.to.Washington) and for Bill Simon as well.

Maybe you could use your ping list to suggest CaliFReepers get out and get active!
36 posted on 07/30/2002 9:46:32 PM PDT by gc4nra
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: MHT
Nov. 5, 2002. (Election day is the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. The primary was March 5, 2002.)
37 posted on 07/30/2002 10:02:19 PM PDT by heleny
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: Timesink
Back to my main point: The RATS needed that 90%, plus massive voter fraud, just to get as close as they did. If they lose even 2% or so of the black vote to the GOP, they are DOOMED.

I agree emphatically, Timesink. I believe the Dems maxed out in '02, what with the Green vote switching to Gore, the 100%+ turnout in black urban precincts, double voting college students, media bias, etc. So even with no change in popular opinion, Bush would win easily in a re-run. Of course, there HAS been a SIGNIFICANT change in public opinion to go along with all that.
It's the House and Senate majorities that are important at this time, however. Let us pray, and work for victory!

38 posted on 07/30/2002 10:07:19 PM PDT by pariah
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: Impeach98
This poll is much better news than it seems at first glance. Notice that it is a "registered voter" poll. Generally these tend to favor Democrats - the reason is that Democrats are registered in greater number in CA than Republicans.

A better indicator would be a "Likely voter" poll. That type factors in actual voting patterns. In CA Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats - this tends to balance out the Democrats registration edge. Congressional, State Assembly, and State Senate districts that are not at least +5% Democrat registration advantage are considered "in play" for Republicans.

There are two other key points for this Gubinatorial election. The Green Party candidate is polling about 5% of the vote when listed in to poll questionaire. Almost all of that liberal vote is pulled from the Davis column. Will these voters stay Green? Or will the bleed back to Davis (like Nader voters to Gore in the last Presidential election)? The other key point is the illegal/dead vote which greatly favors the Democrats. They have put a lot of money and effort into registering as many ineligible voters as possible. Also, the big, Democrat-dominated counties (such as Los Angeles and San Francisco) are way behind in cleaning up their voter polls. Hence, "standing absentee ballots" are sent to addresses of former residents, and are illegally voted by the current residents. Also, illegal aliens, mostly Mexican, vote in heavily Hispanic districts. (This is how Loretta Sanchez beat Robert Doren a few years ago.)

IMHO, Simon will not be safe from voter fraud unless he is up 10 points.

39 posted on 07/30/2002 10:36:58 PM PDT by capitan_refugio
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Impeach98; All
Anyone know how to convert a pdf file into a gif or jpg?
40 posted on 07/30/2002 10:44:03 PM PDT by StoneColdGOP
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-8081-89 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson