Posted on 04/02/2002 4:03:08 PM PST by veronica
What is Israel trying to accomplish in its latest incursion into the West Bank and Gaza?
At first sight, it seems merely a resumption of the bailing operation that was interrupted in deference to the third "peace process" mission of retired Marine Gen. Anthony Zinni. The Israeli ship is filling with water, in the form of constant suicide bombings destroying public morale, the sense of security, and even the national economy. The scheme is to eliminate terrorists faster than they can come at you -- to bail the water faster than it is entering the ship. It is one way to remain afloat, and not to be despised when there is no alternative.
A closer look reveals larger, but still limited, ambitions. "Operation Root Treatment," the last round of incursions, aimed at clearing terrorist operations, including bomb and rocket factories, out of sanctuaries in the Palestinian refugee camps. It is succeeded by an operation that has gone straight to Ramallah, and whose purpose is almost certainly to wreck the whole infrastructure of Yasser Arafat's Palestinian Authority. That the whole of the PA is now a terrorist front, no less than, say, Hezbollah, almost goes without saying. (It runs schools and hospitals, but then, so does Hezbollah.)
Consider, for instance, the list of weapons the IDF were able to confiscate from Mr. Arafat's "civil government" compound when they took most of it over. These included not only dozens of Kalashnikov rifles and "micros" and other assault rifles, but Berettas and Norwegian sniper weapons.
There were extensive stores of bombs, mortars and their launchers, fragmentation and smoke grenades, crates of machine-gun and pistol magazines, commando knives, telescopic sights, night-vision devices, bulletproof and combat vests.
About 500 Palestinian men were arrested in and around Mr. Arafat's compound, dozens of whom were on Israel's lists of wanted terrorists.
European "peace activists" were used as a front by the Palestinians in a clever operation to smuggle several of the most-wanted terrorists who had retreated to Mr. Arafat's office. They surprised the Israelis on their way in, but on their way out IDF soldiers surrounded them and detached and grabbed their suspects. These may have included the murderers of the Israeli tourism minister, Rehavam Zeevi.
Under the Madrid/Oslo "peace process," Mr. Arafat agreed, in return for being allowed to return to the West Bank and Gaza, to limit armaments in Palestinian-administered territories to sidearms and standard equipment required by police. He undertook not only to prevent violent attacks on Israel and Israelis, but to adopt a pacific tone, and of course disavow terrorism.
The pretense that he has done anything other than fuel and incite violence, since the moment he arrived, is no longer sustainable. Explosives of the very kind used by Palestinian suicide bombers have been found in Palestinian Administration police caches all over the territories. And Mr. Arafat's constant rhetorical celebration of the cult of "martyrdom" and other forms of homicide is now a matter of public record. His game is up.
Most significant is the intelligence haul from Mr. Arafat's compound. The IDF soldiers have been at pains to secure and remove files, documents, and communications records; the mission to Ramallah was in some sense planned like the commando raid on the Karine A in the Red Sea in January. There is presently a large traffic of intelligence "content" between the Israeli government and the CIA, Pentagon, U.S. State Department and White House in Washington. Connections between the Palestinian Authority and international Islamist terror organizations, including al-Qaeda, are being established, chapter and verse.
It is this intelligence haul that will keep the operation going. It is, in effect, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's repayment to President George W. Bush for understanding as Israel proceeds with -- judging from the reported call-up of some 31,000 reserves -- its largest single military operation since the invasion of Lebanon in 1982.
On this scale, it must be assumed that the IDF will go through the entire West Bank and Gaza, rounding up suspects, weapons and documents in the most thorough clean-out of terrorist nests yet attempted.
The Israeli air force has not been used this time in the Palestinian territories, but there have been more than a dozen bombing and strafing runs against Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon in response to an increase in mortar attacks across Israel's northern frontier (timed to coincide with the escalation of suicide bombings). These still amount to warning shots, but if trouble persists in Israel's north, I would expect the airstrikes on Lebanese positions, and potentially even on Syrian ones, to expand dramatically.
The flipside of Mr. Sharon's understanding with Mr. Bush is a time constraint.
The Israelis must work quickly and try to conclude their operation in May -- for the U.S. should be in a position to strike against Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq by early June, and won't need the complication.
I believe the U.S. and Israel are presently negotiating with Morocco for a place to send Yasser Arafat (other than to hell). The Bush administration has -- after Vice-President Dick Cheney was effectively spat in the face by Mr. Arafat upon offering to meet him in Cairo -- finally written Mr. Arafat off. The problem now is what to do with him that will cause the least excitement in the Arab world, and what kind of self-administration can be established by the Palestinians once he is gone.
Will the Israeli operation succeed?
The short answer is no. The new mission title, "Operation Defensive Wall," is a misnomer. There is no indication the Sharon government is yet seriously considering the kind of Berlin Wall that would have to be erected between Israelis and Palestinians to put a permanent stop to suicide bombers. The reality is the two societies, though separated neighbourhood from neighbourhood, co-exist and mix in everyday life on either side of the Green Line (Israel's borders before the Six Day War in 1967). Some 1.2 million Arab Muslims live on the Israeli side of this line, and 400,000 Israeli Jews on the other.
And the bombing in Haifa on Sunday helped display the scale of the problem. Haifa, the seat of Israeli pacifism, was the one city where Jews and Arabs had, until recently, co-existed in peace. This ended months ago with a bus bombing. Sunday's bomber was an Arab Israeli citizen; the restaurant, named Matza, was likewise owned by an Israeli Arab; the clientele were mostly Jewish. It was part of a campaign within the campaign of suicide bombings: the Palestinian militias doing everything in their power to recruit Israeli Arabs, and to strike in ways that will polarize the two communities. The intention is to force Israel to turn against its native Arab population, in the hope of further radicalizing that community and, ultimately, creating a fresh refugee crisis.
The hard truth is that a real "defensive wall" would not begin to work before a Balkan-style exchange of populations. Any Jewish settlements outside the "defensive wall" would have to be withdrawn, and Israel would have to begin evicting the "fifth column" that has been forming within. The economic ramifications are equally huge to both sides. For the Palestinians, it would mean almost total unemployment and the loss of most of the existing food supply. For the Israelis it would mean a major retrenchment and economic transformation.
Before anything on that scale is contemplated, the Israelis will wait and see what comes of the U.S. mission to Iraq. Like the Gulf War of 1991, this will change the situation on the ground throughout the region. Meanwhile, they continue bailing, but with a bigger bucket.
I bet you're wearing a robe and slippers that are secured with velcro ties and that you have apple sauce dribbling from your chin.
I didn't realize the home allowed nuts like you internet access.
Their realization that evidence of thier colaboration with Arafat is documented and now in the hands of not only Israel,
but and American President on the warpath against terrorism where ever it resides.
I imagine the behind the scenes conversations are very interesting to say the least.
History repeats itself as WWIII approaches.
A day late and a dollar short, another FNG bites the dust.
Approaches????? Better shape up mister!
I Suggest the Israeli's RELEASE Mr Arafat---at about 35,000 feet over "Saddam's Last known Location!!" (WITHOUT a PARACHUTE!!)
Perhaps THEN, the psychopathic morons "Directing" the current "Islamic Revolution" would "Get the Hint!!"
Doc
Then he ought to acknowledge that publicly. And quit the charade.
The U.S. has to concentrate on the mission at hand: Iraq.
See that's the problem. Bush has this pipe dream of an Arab coalition to fight Iraq. And thinks that he will get it if he does something about Israel.
But he deosn't get it. They don't give a crap about the Palestinians, in fact most of those countries killed Palestinains or drove them out of their own countries.
They are just using them as an excuse to vent their hatred of Jews. As it is the ragheads have all told us they don't want us attacking Iraq.
Does GWB really think they'll change their minds if he treats Israel with a hypocritical double standard?
Furthermore aren't we tired of the manipulation yet? We had 8 years of manipulation and hidden motives with Clinton, isn't time we asked for that. Don't we deserve more than that by now?
Mr. Bush do what's right, back Israel, and proclaim the truth about Arafat. And tell the ragheads if they don;t like it they can go to hell where they belong.
I know the American Media will studiously avoid and convieniently forget this fact, but it will never be allowed to be forgotten here at FR.
You, if you supporter the "Pali's," reveal yourself as a supporter of the murder of innocent women and children. Congrats...
Of course, they should have done this years ago. They are paying now for having been forbearing earlier. But, I agree, better late than never. I don't think they will, though. They don't seem to be able to generate a national consensus to go just against world opinion and annex the territories and be done with it.
Gee - Maybe US Intelligence should hire you! You're obviously smarter than they are and by your claim, Bush is too stupid or his advisors are too stupid, to advise him. It's REAL SIMPLE ISN'T IT?!? Any idiot should know the solution.
The short answer is no.
I'm sorry to disagree with this article since so many friends of Israel here like it, but it has several liberal fallacies.
If Israel is determined to defeat the Palestinian Authority (PA), it has the power to do so. And that is what I hope it is doing. If Israel shrinks from doing the full job in the current round of fighting, in my opinion, it will have to do it after the next two or three really big suicide bomb successes.
The current high levels of Palestinian terror are not inevitable, otherwise they would have occurred two and three years ago, when things were, instead, 100% better and Israel was probably the safest place in the Middle East for U.S. tourists. This terror wave started in October 2000 shortly after Israel showed weakness through withdrawal from Lebanon and, especially, by making massive unilateral concessions at Camp David. Palestinians are being told by their leaders that Israelis have gone soft, Israeli young men are refusing to fight, and that the uprising is highly successful. If anyone can remember back to the news in late 2000 and early 2001: The early part of the current Infitada focused on denying Jews access to holy sites on the West Bank, mainly graves of Old Testament figures. This was highly successful, and inspired the PA to make the recent maximum effort. If the Israelis can show Palestinians that the Infitada is failing, people will not be so eager to die for it.
As for the stuff in the article about building a "Berlin Wall," this will not work. The PA will just tunnel under, etc. The walls between East and West Germany usually worked because the poor East Germans trying to flee lacked extensive resources to break through the fence. By contrast, PA suicide bombers would be backed by large scale military forces able to break through inevitable weak points of the fence at will. Think how hard it would be for the U.S. to guard the Mexican border if the people trying to get into the U.S. were Mexican military! And we, the world's superpower, can't even secure our borders against civilians! The Israeli public does want a wall, but they're dreaming.
In short, for Israel there is no substitute for victory. Only after a strong military victory does a generous peace treaty become possible, as the U.S. granted the defeated Germany and Japan and victory in World War II.
Thanks as always, from a Jew, for the inspiring support for Israel in this forum.
The short answer is no.
I'm sorry to disagree with this article since so many friends of Israel here like it, but it has several liberal fallacies.
If Israel is determined to defeat the Palestinian Authority (PA), it has the power to do so. And that is what I hope it is doing. If Israel shrinks from doing the full job in the current round of fighting, in my opinion, it will have to do it after the next two or three really big suicide bomb successes.
The current high levels of Palestinian terror are not inevitable, otherwise they would have occurred two and three years ago, when things were, instead, 100% better and Israel was probably the safest place in the Middle East for U.S. tourists. This terror wave started in October 2000 shortly after Israel showed weakness through withdrawal from Lebanon and, especially, by making massive unilateral concessions at Camp David. Palestinians are being told by their leaders that Israelis have gone soft, Israeli young men are refusing to fight, and that the uprising is highly successful. If anyone can remember back to the news in late 2000 and early 2001: The early part of the current Infitada focused on denying Jews access to holy sites on the West Bank, mainly graves of Old Testament figures. This was highly successful, and inspired the PA to make the recent maximum effort. If the Israelis can show Palestinians that the Infitada is failing, people will not be so eager to die for it.
As for the stuff in the article about building a "Berlin Wall," this will not work. The PA will just tunnel under, etc. The walls between East and West Germany usually worked because the poor East Germans trying to flee lacked extensive resources to break through the fence. By contrast, PA suicide bombers would be backed by large scale military forces able to break through inevitable weak points of the fence at will. Think how hard it would be for the U.S. to guard the Mexican border if the people trying to get into the U.S. were Mexican military! And we, the world's superpower, can't even secure our borders against civilians! The Israeli public does want a wall, but they're dreaming.
In short, for Israel there is no substitute for victory. Only after a strong military victory does a generous peace treaty become possible, as the U.S. granted the defeated Germany and Japan after victory in World War II.
Thanks as always, from a Jew, for the inspiring support for Israel in this forum.
I see. W, with all of the intelligence of the United States at his disposal and the finest foreign policy minds available as advisors, doesn't get it, but you, writing here on an anonymous Internet forum, do.
Perhaps you should consider enlightening them.
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