Venezuelan Statesman Hugo "I-got-the-bird" Chavez
Posted on 04/14/2002 4:01:40 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
Charging that Mr Chavez's left-leaning Government is leading Venezuela to ruin, Mr Fernandez, 47, and a vanguard of white-collar rebels have vowed to remain true to a two-week national strike that has paralysed oil exports from the world's fifth-largest supplier.***
Reich was shaped by his experiences in the Reagan administration and in Cuba as a boy when Fidel Castro's revolution forced his family into exile. He maintains the hard-line anti-Castroism favored by the Cuban expatriate community in Miami, but elsewhere in the United States many farmers want to sell their products to Cuba, and tourists want to visit the island. Senator Richard Lugar of Indiana, who will become chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee next month, opposes Reich's appointment on the grounds that he lacks the range of experience required for the job. This should be the final blow to his chances. The need for fresh thinking on Latin American policy is evident in Venezuela, where protesters from the more affluent segments of society are attempting to unseat President Hugo Chavez.***
"We're not evacuating our staff, but have told anyone who wants to leave that they're free to do so, and have told anyone who had vacation plans to take them early ... there's nothing going on to keep them here anyway," an executive at a foreign oil company said on the condition of anonymity. Thousands of businesses remained shuttered Wednesday, as did the Caracas Stock Exchange, but supermarkets continued to operate during limited hours. Banks, too, are on strike, but have agreed to extend to six, from three, the number of hours they'll be open for business, local daily El Nacional reported. Banking officials couldn't be reached for comment. Currency trading was expected to continue at low volumes.
Opposition groups blocked highways across the country, beginning at 6 a.m. local time (1000 GMT), as part of their protest. Police have used tear gas and rubber bullets to break up fights between protesters and Chavez's supporters. There were media reports that diesel fuel has run out and that some restaurants that had been open since the strike began Dec. 2 have had to shut because they've run out of gas to cook with. ***
Venezuelan Statesman Hugo "I-got-the-bird" Chavez
Since the opposition strategy is to outwait the government, Chavez' control of the remaining gasoline supplies, food imports and any international relief plays significantly in his favor. Strike fatigue appears to be growing among the populace. Moreover, support for the strike was divided from the outset. As gasoline and cooking gas shortages grow this week into a national supply crisis, public opinion could start turning against the opposition.
Finally, the United States, by intention or neglect, has opted to let events in Venezuela run their course without interference. Washington is singularly focused on building a coalition for a war on Iraq, and creating another Allende would only justify and ossify European opposition to U.S. efforts at proactive international policing. Moreover, Washington's priority in Venezuela is stable oil production. With a divided opposition and the very real possibility for long-term violent unrest in a post-Chavez Venezuela, a return to pre-strike status quo is perhaps the best option from the U.S. perspective. Chavez was an annoyance to Washington, not a threat. He kept the oil flowing.
What does this all add up to? This week appears to be critical. If the gasoline and cooking gas supplies run out and food shortages continue to deepen, an opposition march later this week could draw massive support. It also could spark a confrontation, if the march is directed at the presidential palace as planned. At that point, everyone shows their cards. Divisions in the military will be clarified, as will the resolve of Chavez, his supporters and his foes.
On the other hand, if the government is able to coordinate relief efforts, carefully directing the delivery of food staples, public opinion could swing against the strikers. Or if Chavez continues to exercise the same restraint he has demonstrated over the past two weeks, banking on the opposition's aversion to decisive action, the march could lap at the gates of the presidential palace and ebb away to no effect. Watch the gas pumps. Then watch the march. If Chavez survives the weekend, he may well have weathered yet another storm.***
Chavez, who commandeered some private truck fleets on Dec. 8 to deliver gas, expanded on that order with a decree allowing civilian and military officials to temporarily seize any vehicle that delivers gas, oil or food - including trucks, boats and aircraft - to end strike-caused shortages. Chavez ordered inspections of businesses to determine if any were hoarding goods such as milk, rice or medicine. Those doing so could be fined. His decree, dated Tuesday and published late Wednesday, cited threats to national security caused by shortages of essential goods. ***
Chavez had ordered the military to take over police stations on Nov. 16, seizing power from one of his strongest opponents, Pena, and Pena's police chief, Henry Vivas. Chavez said Pena had failed to resolve a six-week labor dispute and that officers routinely repressed pro-government demonstrations. Opponents labeled the takeover a power grab aimed at weakening Pena. Vivas refused to resign, and many officers in the 9,000-strong department refused to recognize Chavez's hand-picked chief, Gonzalo Sanchez Delgado, a retired sergeant. Chavez is now facing massive protests and a nationwide strike, now in its 17th day, seeking his resignation. Pena and Vivas filed a Nov. 2 lawsuit challenging Sanchez's appointment. They say crime has increased because police patrols have dropped since the military takeover. Vivas ordered many officers to stay in their precincts to avoid clashes with the army and National Guard.
The takeover was a central reason Venezuela's opposition launched a general strike Dec. 2 against Chavez. Strike leaders originally demanded a nonbinding referendum asking Venezuelans if Chavez should resign. They now demand Chavez resign or call early elections. The Supreme Court ordered Sanchez to hand over a police precinct that serves as the police department's communications center. It also ordered a 15-day period in which city and national authorities arrange the transfer of the department from the military to the mayor. "This restores normality," Pena said after the ruling. "This ruling restores the authority of the mayor's office."
There was no immediate reaction from Chavez's government, which once relied on the court as a rubber-stamp for Chavez's policies but has recently ruled against the president on several occasions. Chavez supporters rioted after the court ruled in August the government hadn't presented enough evidence to try four high ranking military officers for rebelling against Chavez in an April coup. [End]
Chávez's foes buoyed by OAS statement***CARACAS - President Hugo Chávez's foes Tuesday celebrated an OAS declaration that gave him no support, urged him to respect the media and opened the door to future actions if the crisis lashing Venezuela worsens.
……….Chávez's ambassador to the 34-member hemispheric body, Jorge Valero, tried to put a positive spin on the statement, noting that it even-handedly called for ''democratic institutionality'' -- no coups, no self-coups. But the declaration did not include Valero's request for an expression of support for the democratically elected Chávez, mentioning his name only once and only as the president of Venezuela. Instead, it urged the government to safeguard the news media, largely anti-Chávez and repeatedly attacked by supporters of the president's leftist ``Bolivarian revolution.'' Chávez and his foes should negotiate a ''constitutional, democratic, pacific and electoral solution'' to the crisis, said the declaration, whose importance was underscored by the 25 hours of debate that preceded it. The statement also raised the prospect of moving the dispute to other OAS forums if it worsens, such as a summit of foreign ministers that would be a possible first step toward a tougher stance.***
"Behind the attempt to stop PDVSA there's nothing but a new coup attempt to topple the legitimate government," the pugnacious Chavez told government sympathizers at a rally that stretched into the early hours of Thursday. "Now the time to clean up PDVSA has arrived." Chavez made his remarks hours after the Supreme Court ordered the government to relinquish its military takeover of the Caracas metropolitan police and return the force to the leadership of anti-Chavez Mayor Alfredo Pena.
Analysts said the military takeover of the Caracas police, which helped trigger the strike, was an attempt by the government to neutralize a state armed force that has been hostile to Chavez and his leftist policies at a time when the president is fighting for his political life. Struggling to restart exports, Chavez has sacked dissident oil executives who were leading the strike and has sent troops to take over idle state-run tankers, refineries and ports. ***
Regardless of their political differences, many Brazilians believe that the Bush administration's expanding military support for Colombia is only the tip of a more ambitious long-term strategy to gain direct control over oil and other natural resources in South America. The Bush administration is backing what Brazilians perceive as a conservative government in Colombia, as well as signing a free-trade agreement recently with Chile and building a stronger U.S. military and economic presence in other Andean countries with substantial energy, mineral and forest resources.
Brazilian foreign policymakers are concerned that it won't be long before American corporations start to encroach on the outer frontiers of the Amazon River Basin. If Chavez were to be replaced by a U.S.-backed center-right regime in Venezuela, Brazil's sense of encirclement would increase. As a result, da Silva likely will do whatever he can to help his friend Chavez, in defense of what he perceives as Brazil's paramount geopolitical interest in the region: to contain American expansionism.***
"This resolution is telling these people (the strikers) that they have to obey government orders and resolutions aimed at restarting the oil industry," a court spokesman told Reuters. But it was not immediately clear whether striking oil workers would obey the court. Strike leaders, including dissident PDVSA managers, have said they will stay out until the president resigns. Chavez has refused to step down and has vowed to break the strike. [End]
The question remains, then, how should the United States weigh in? Venezuela is, particularly now, central to U.S. interests, since it is the world's fifth-largest oil producer and supplies America with 14 percent of its imported oil. Crude oil futures have risen past the psychologically significant $30 level, primarily as a result of the turmoil in Venezuela.
But charting a policy course for Venezuela is tricky. Last week, White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said the best way to defuse tensions in Venezuela would be by holding new elections. This week, though, the administration retreated, saying Venezuela should find a resolution in accordance with its constitution and recommending Venezuela hold a referendum on Mr. Chavez's rule. This brings the White House closer to Mr. Chavez's position. The Venezuelan president has said he would be willing to hold a binding referendum, but that according to Venezuela's new constitution, which Mr. Chavez in effect drafted, it can't be held until August, midway through his term.
Mr. Chavez's stated reverence for the constitution is tragicomical. This isn't, after all, a document penned by founding fathers, but rather by a Constitutional Assembly populated by Chavez loyalists that were elected in July 1999. And as Mr. Chavez surely recalls, he illegally dissolved congress and had the assembly take on legislative powers in August 1999 ? until the public outcry was so great, Mr. Chavez was forced to let lawmakers continue legislating until the following year, when new elections were held.
So while changing the constitution to allow for an early, binding referendum wouldn't violate any time-honored democratic traditions in Venezuela, the caution the White House has demonstrated in making demands of the Chavez government is understandable. In the interests of reaching a peaceful resolution, the White House should privately urge Mr. Chavez to try to strike a deal with the opposition regarding a referendum or election. A mediator for these talks must also be found. The negotiating table ? not bloodied streets ? is where this dire situation must be settled. [End]
The Bush administration's public call for early presidential elections bolstered the opposition, agitated the president and indirectly undermined a pro-government but moderate representative's constitutional amendment proposal for early elections. Chavez is loath to appear in concert with a U.S. policy torn between oil interests and a thinly veiled preference for regime change. The recalcitrant opposition refuses to wait for August, when a binding referendum on Chavez's rule can be held. So again Venezuela faces civil war or dialogue. With hesitant and muted diplomacy from the United States and fruitless mediation efforts led by the Organization of American States, the former is more likely. ***
César Gaviria, secretary-general of the Organization of American States, has repeatedly warned of widespread violence if the negotiations he's overseeing between Chávez and opposition envoys do not reach agreement soon. But the presidential guard sergeant's easy flirting on Wednesday underscored the view in Miraflores that Chávez's vast shuffling of military commanders this summer thwarted any chance of another coup. ''The president's people really believe they are over that hump, something that gives them time to dig in and break the strike,'' said a Western diplomat who meets often with government officials.
Chávez brands his opponents as a small group of corrupt rich people and labor leaders bent on triggering another coup and ending his leftist ''Bolivarian Revolution'' on behalf of Venezuela's poor majority. Like most Chávez supporters, Max Arvelaiz, a French native who works in the palace as an advisor to the Ministry of the Presidency, does not perceive the situation outside as critical as the president's foes. ''We know that anything can still happen. We are going through a deep crisis,'' Arvelaiz said, ``but things are starting to move in our favor, and when [the opposition] decided to strike, we knew it was something crazy, their last chance.''***
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.