Posted on 05/28/2002 7:52:19 AM PDT by rightwing2
The Moscow Nuclear Arms Reduction Treaty—Arms Control at its Worst
By David T. Pyne
May 24, 2002
Note: This is a special follow-up to the three part series on the Bush-Putin Nuclear Reduction Treaty posted last week.
The soon to be signed Treaty of Moscow, which mandates that US and Russian deployed strategic nuclear warheads do not exceed 2200 warheads, is deeply flawed and will do little or nothing to reduce the threat posed by the Russian nuclear arsenal to the United States. One of reasons for this is the fact that the Bush Administration did not want to sign a formal treaty with Russia for the reduction of US and Russian deployed strategic warheads and only belatedly agreed to do so as a major concession by Mr. Bush to Russian President Putin. The Pentagon remained firmly opposed to this treaty long after Bush made the decision to sign it and repeatedly tried to change the treaty language in a veiled attempt to kill it.
Ultimately, the treaty as written is purposely designed by US negotiators to be as unenforceable as possible to preserve maximum flexibility for the US to keep a small hedge of deactivated nuclear weapons which could be re-deployed within a period of several months in the event of a crisis. However, for the same reason that the treaty provides maximum flexibility to the US to get around its restrictions, it also provides maximum flexibility for Russia to avoid any real reductions to its highly potent and dangerously threatening nuclear arsenal. Accordingly, the US will have no real ability to verify that Russian warheads are withdrawn from service as required by the treaty. Whatever happened to Ronald Reagan's motto of "trust but verify?" US negotiators deliberately excluded any effective verification procedures from the terms of the treaty precisely because they do not believe the Russians can afford to maintain their nuclear arsenal at present levels for very long. They believe that the Russians will reduce their arsenal to a level between 1500-2500 warheads within the next decade or so regardless of what the US does.
These longstanding, but faulty and outdated assumptions are based upon assumed strict Russian compliance with the never-ratified START II Treaty, which would have banned all MIRV’d ICBMs that serve as the backbone of the Russian nuclear missile fleet. This new treaty poses serious challenges to the validity of those assumptions because it does not limit the number of deployed missiles or “launchers”, nor does it forbid the Russian deployment of MIRV'd ICBMs. Accordingly, the Russians are allowed to pack as many miniaturized nuclear warheads in each missile as they desire and, in fact, have expressed their intention to do so. Russian Foreign Minister Ivanov confirmed earlier this week that the new treaty that the new nuclear disarmament treaty that will be signed Friday allows Russia "to load multiple warheads on its intercontinental ballistic missiles."
The Russians certainly have no shortage of MIRV’d missiles. Their SS-27 “Topol M”, nominally a single-warhead ICBM, has been said to have the capability to carry as many as seven to ten “miniaturized” warheads according to Russian scientists. The Russians have repeatedly threatened to MIRV these missiles if the US “broke out” of the ABM Treaty as Bush did last December. In addition, the SS-18 “Satan” ICBM, nominally a ten-warhead missile, was revealed to have the capability to carry up to thirty warheads as long ago as 1983, according to a book entitled, “How to Make Nuclear Warheads Obsolete” by Robert Jastrow. What this all means is that with the ineffective to non-existent verification provisions in the Treaty, even if Russia complies with the terms of the treaty, the US will be extremely hard-pressed to guess the actual number of strategic nuclear warheads deployed by the Russians. The US will also be virtually incapable of detecting Russian treaty violations. The US intelligence community is likely to continue to greatly underestimate the number of deployed Russian warheads because it will be unable to accurately determine whether Russian missiles remain MIRV’d and how many warheads are deployed in each individual missile.
This treaty does not require the destruction of even a single Russian missile or warhead although the Bush administration has signaled its intention to destroy the bulk of the thousands of strategic warheads to be withdrawn from service under the treaty. Furthermore, the treaty does not require any reductions in deployed warheads whatsoever until the treaty comes into force in 2012. Accordingly, 2011 could find Russia in possession of exactly the same arsenal of 6000 strategic nuclear warheads which she possesses today including its SS-18 and SS-24 rail mobile ten-warhead ‘monster’ missiles that she now has aimed against the US. Even when the treaty comes into force in 2012, Russia gets to keep these ‘monster’ missiles and still be in compliance. What’s worse, the terms of the treaty clearly state that the treaty expires in 2012, almost immediately after it comes into force, which means that any Russian warheads withdrawn from service that have not been destroyed may be redeployed at will back up to START I Treaty levels of approximately 6000 strategic warheads.
The Treaty of Moscow manages to retain all of the disadvantages of the unilateral nuclear disarmament measures originally proposed by President Bush and add yet another--the fact that these drastic cuts in the US nuclear arsenal will now be legally enforceable by the Russians. Considering the US historical record of meticulous compliance with past arms control treaties and the Russian record of violating every arms control treaty they have ever signed, US nuclear disarmament measures will be very difficult to reverse in a crisis once they are implemented and thousands of US strategic warheads are destroyed. Unlike the US, the Russians have expressed no intention to destroy the warheads they withdraw under the Treaty. In short, this treaty is arms control at its worst.
Copyright, David T. Pyne, 2002
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David T. Pyne, Esq. is a national security expert who works as an International Programs Manager in the Department of the Army responsible for the countries of the former Soviet Union and the Middle East among others. He is also a licensed attorney and former Army Reserve Officer. In addition, he holds an MA in National Security Studies from Georgetown University. Mr. Pyne currently serves as Executive Vice President of the Virginia Republican Assembly. He is also a member of the Center for Emerging National Security Affairs based in Washington, D.C. Mr. Pyne serves as a columnist for American-Partisan.com and OpinioNet.com. His articles have also appeared on Etherzone.com and Patriotist.com.
China on the other hand is modernizing and building up it's military at a frightening pace. What we're going to find out ten years from now is that we have nothing to fear from the Russians, but because of unnecessary arms control agreements with them we are outgunned by the Chinese who are surely celebrating our stupidity. Imagine the negotiations next time one of our planes is forced down and we have 2,000 warheads and the Chinese have 20,000.
But since
the treaty does not require any reductions in deployed warheads whatsoever until the treaty comes into force in 2012
just maybe events will eclipse the reason to hold to this treaty like the ABM treaty that was just nullified.
You really made me laugh. I remember my friends in Moscow showing me the "Propoganda" plaques in the Metro. Those huge vegetables.
I remember when I found out about the world-renowned ballet, the Bolshoy. That it means Big Ballet.
Anyway, this treaty is about trust between Putin and Bush, a lovely thing to celebrate. Both Americans and Russians who have not visited the other country are struggling with that same trust. Post-cold-war trauma.
Did you see that Putin took Bush and his wife to a liturgy at the Kazan Cathedral, and Laura wore a headscarf? WOW. I was amazed.
Or, Bush was able to overcome his previous cold-war misconceptions and realize that Putin was a good man. Some people can move on, some remain stuck.
Your misspellings almost make me laugh, except your substantive points are just too demented for me to feel the slightest bit of hilarity. Wake up and smell the coffee. The Russians are the only ones to have tested a 100 megaton bomb. We do not deploy 25 megaton bombs on anything. Our MX missiles will soon be retired, and their warheads are typically far smaller than your grandiose ideas. Our Titan II's were loaded with the largest operational warhead we had, a 9 megaton bunker-buster. Dismantled in 1987, bud.
How much is the FSB paying you to haunt this site, and write your drivel?
In Russia the 2nd graders speak near-perfect English and are working on their third language.
For vacations Americans go to Boston and think they have seen something really old.
Not to mention the fact that the "Ugly American" title is still well-deserved, in many cases.
Interesting that you unrepentantly never admit when you're wrong about such elementary historical facts, but just move on to other aspersions and disparagements. Of course, you are still the product of your state education...wherever you happen to live. I will pray for both you and MarMema (yet another ugly American?), that you will seek after God in true humility, and seek for his will and grace for your lives....
Mine space. The mine space race. :)
Here, do a little research:
Nuclear Blast Radius
25 megatons: 10 mile radius, over 50% casualties, instantly.
1 megaton: 2.7 mile radius, over 50% casualties, instantly.
Oh yeah, 9 Megatons is just for a bunker....bs.
I don't judge your salvation, that is between you and Jesus. If he is your saviour, however, I would think you should want to be showing that more openly in your walk and talk.
I note again however you have failed to evidence any humility, at least so far as a simple discussion of national security goes, and you make a variety of mistaken statements---echoing the Soviet Union Propaganda fronts from the Cold War, that are just plain whacked: E.g., there are no 25 megaton bombs in any of our missiles. And the biggest warhead we ever deployed on a missile has been decomissioned. Sheesh! And your PBS (Publicly Broadcasting Socialist Monopoly) blast program is frankly erroneous with regard to hardened targets. The Russians are so proud of their super-hardened silos they think they can take almost a direct hit from our warheads. Who knows, maybe their right?
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