Posted on 07/31/2005 1:19:25 PM PDT by KMB
For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.
The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.
I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.
There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.
Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.
So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.
However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.
I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."
At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.
I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.
With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.
This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.
With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."
Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.
With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.
These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.
I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.
I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....
But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.
As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.
Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.
If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.
LOL!
:o]
Not much. I have to go to a meeting in a little while, but that's about it.
No classes?
How does Winston like his new digs?
No classes today.
Winston seems to like his new aquarium.
Er...*hanging head*...I've been feeling kinda puny...
But I found that joke in my email and thought of you. :o]
I mean, I thought it would be nice to send you a joke.
*whispering* Am I still in the doghouse?
Hi darks.
Well, he's an Engineer, single, lives frugally, handles his money well, had enough to put down on a house back before 2000, and he's now in a position to take some of the equity and make a buy. So, I wouldn't say it's "extra" money he's got laying around, but he's being smart about putting his equity to work for him. In principle, if you've got more than six-months of income just sitting around idle -- in any form -- you're wasting money. That money should be working for you in some way, and the wise steward will take counsel about how best to put it to work.
The paramount concept in all of this is "delayed gratification"; NOT buying all the latest bling-bling today, in exchange for being able to do something sound with the money tomorrow. Sadly, that's a lost concept on most people. They've just GOT to have that new car and, when they get to where they can just barely afford the monthlies, they go get it. Nevermind the huge hit hey'll take in depreciation over the first two years, no, those thousands ar immaterial. "Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!" That digital flat screen HDTV -- gotta have one today and, "Hey, guess what? I just got paid! Good Guys, here I come!" Oh and, of course, there just HAS to be a surround-sound system to go with it.
Then people are all bitchy and confused when their credit card bills keep growing, month on month, and there's never anything in the savings account besides the $50 they put in there when they opened it.
Our spending and saving habits are, for the most part, fiscally ruinous and, yet -- the icing on the cake -- we have the unholy flaming gaul to berate Congress for doing precisely the same thing at the National level.
IT'S COMPLETE INSANITY!
*Still whispering* Do ya wanna meet in a cat-house?
*whispering* Only if you're buying...;o]
*still whispering* I'm on social security. How much?
*whispering* So am I. Whatcha got to offer?
;o]
I probably would not be able to find you.
You see this young lad walks out of a store and sees an elderly man sitting on a bench crying. This young lad walks over to the man to check to see if he is O.k.!
Young Lad: Sir, are you Okay?
Old Man: Yes, it's my birthday today (and he is still crying)
Young Lad: Wow, it's a special day for you.
Old Man.: Yes it is. I'm 82 today (and still crying.)
Young Lad: Even better, you look great for your age.
Old Man: Thank you, and I just got married (and he is still crying.)
Young Lad: Married!! Gee, that's great! 82 and married, wow! You've got a whole new life ahead of you.
Old Man: I married a 25 year old.
Young Lad: Holly Molly!! Even better.
Old Man: We have sex every day! (he's till crying)
Young Lad: I don't even have sex everyday, you lucky person you.
Old Man: Yes, I am, and I've forgotten where I lived.
LOL!
I'd be crying too! *snicker*
Gotta run. Stay loose (heh heh)
Later!
*whispering* "Will do." Or "Not a chance!" ;o]
That's right, leave me hanging.
"That's right, leave me hanging."
Don't tell me the rest of them let you down?....
(Shame on me, then...)
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