Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age

Pravda ^ | 1/11/09 | staff

[xtinct]

The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according to a large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of climate science. Many sources of data which provide our knowledge base of long-term climate change indicate that the warm, twelve thousand year-long Holocene period will rather soon be coming to an end, and then the earth will return to Ice Age conditions for the next 100,000 years.

Ice cores, ocean sediment cores, the geologic record, and studies of ancient plant and animal populations all demonstrate a regular cyclic pattern of Ice Age glacial maximums which each last about 100,000 years, separated by intervening warm interglacials, each lasting about 12,000 years.

[justa-hairyape]

Forgot to add structure collapse under the weight of snow. Had a lot of that last winter and last month.

I don't think we need to actually enter the Glaciers Coming Across Canada Stage to have significant problems. And I am not sure that our reconstruction of what happened during the last Ice Age describes exactly everything that occurred. We don't know what happened prior to the actual glaciers forming. Previous conditions could have been very severe. Obviously we wont see glaciers across Canada during solar cycle 24, but solar cycle 25 was predicted to be very low. So possibly by solar cycle 25, if the weak activity continues through 24 and 25, could see some very very severe conditions. For example, some of the glaciers in Alaska have been recently documenting to be expanding for the first time in decades. But we will have our hands very full during winter time long before the walls of ice appear.

[Savage Beast]

Please let us know what happens. Good luck! Who knows? Maybe we’ll win a convert.

[Max in Utah]

You know that, right?

I surmised it.

Let's see if the current wee spots are actually the advance guard of a new crop.

[Ditter]

It wouldn't really matter, she doesn't vote here.. She is still a Dutch citizen and she now lives permanently in Mexico.

[mamelukesabre]

YOU ARE SAYING YEAR-ROUND GLACIERS MAY BEGIN TO EXPAND INTO CANADA IN AS LITTLE AS 25 YEARS?

jiminy christmas. I thought we were talking a hundred or two hundred years from now...provided the trend holds...which doesn’t seem likely.

[justa-hairyape]

YOU ARE SAYING YEAR-ROUND GLACIERS MAY BEGIN TO EXPAND INTO CANADA IN AS LITTLE AS 25 YEARS?

Did not say that. You just did. I said that Alaskan Glaciers were starting to show growth for the first time in decades. I then stated that Ice Age like conditions would continue into the next solar cycle 25 if solar activity levels remained minimum. The implication are that the Alaskan Glaciers would continue to grow. Like I tried to imply, analyzing the glacier level to determine the implications of the next ice age, are similar to analyzing the CO2 levels to determine the implications of the next global warming age. What we have to worry about is what causes the glaciers to form, just as what we have to worry about during a global warming phase is what causes the CO2 levels to rise. But the general wisdom, which has up to now proved to be worthless, seems to prefer to focus on the symptoms and not the causations. So basically by the time the glaciers start rolling down Canada, most of the people in that area would have moved away due to the severe weather conditions.

[mamelukesabre]

It seems to me that a solar cycle is roughly ten years. So in two solar cycles, we are looking at 20 years plus whatever is left of the current solar cycle. That’s how I came to the 25 year figure.

Is my math incorrect?

[justa-hairyape]

Solar cycles last between 9 to 13 years, off the top of my head. Solar cycle 24 will be weaker then 23 so it will probably last 11 to 12 years. NASA predicts cycle 25 to be very weak, but they also predicted 24 to be stronger then 23. My guess at this point in time is that cycle 24, the one just starting, will be weak to moderate. That places a maximum sunspot daily average up to 75. Now to get net warming from the sun, we probably need more then 75 sunspots. So we could experience cooling or no net warming for the next 25 years. Yes, your number was correct, from what I gather. There are however other complicating factors involved such as orbital variations that can magnify the affects of solar cycle maximums and minimums. The unbiased solar scientists all seem to think we are headed into a few decades of cooling just due to orbital variations.

[mamelukesabre]

THen you DID say the wall of ice could initiate it’s southward march into canada in as little as 25 year?

[justa-hairyape]

No. I think we are looking at decades to centuries. But you have to actually do some math to figure that out. Too busy with my year end accounting and taxes to do that for you. Got that January 15th deadline coming up this week. But basically you need to determine how fast the glaciers are growing and then determine how fast they could cover large open areas. Personally I am not worried about them. Will be long gone by the time they roll over large areas of Canada, but I am worried about the weather conditions that promote growing glaciers. We have that condition forming in North America now, apparently.

Here it comes now.

[jpsb]

Doubt anyone alive today would see glaification of Canada, since that takes a long long time to happen. However if we are entering an Ice Age, you can expect to see, mountain snow lines move to lower elevations. Spring snow melt off later then normal, shorter growing seasons and a big increase in Artic sea ice.Oh and of course a declining global temperature.

[jpsb]

"jiminy christmas."

The switch (from warm to cold) can happen in as little ten years. Right now we are about 2 years into what might be a switch. If it is a switch things will be very nasty in 6 to 8 years. Very nasty.