Palin has high favorables with the party?
Coward Romney will use dirty tricks against Honorable
Gov. Palin and her children (as before).
The backstabbing, carpetbagger will continue to hide,
throwing bricks, defending ObamaCARE, defending RomneyCARE.
President Palin. Read it, write it down, think those words, get used to them, because she is going top run in 2012 and she is going to win, period.
No amnesty queens. Sorry.
I don't know how much of a favorite son Romney is considered. I'm in Massachusetts, and I don't detect the love for him some outside the state seem to see.
Obama's thin skin could be his undoing. McCain was so obsequious, as if he was afraid of upsetting St. Obama. I can see Palin getting solid points across and not being seen as bitchy, but in contrast, Obama could very easily be seen as his whiney, bitchy self in response.
Good article. My enthusiasm level has ticked up a little bit.
I think the writer may be underestimating Independent support for Mrs Palin. Her endorsement of Rand Paul pleased many of them.
Thanks for that great analysis. I didn’t see any potential effects from the 2010 elections factored in. I expect lots of sparks to come out then.
BOR stalked for Romney last nite on Leno’s leftwing show. Almost felt sorry for Leno because he couldn’t get a word in edgewise; BOR hogged just like he hogs the time on his show.
He also supported “don’t ask, don’t tell”
I broke my own rule about not watching ABCNNBCBS. Sending self to Network’s Anonymous Camp.
The blog by AKreport he refers to:
http://www.rightosphere.com/blog.php?user=AKReport&blogentry_id=3881
The ability to communicate independently of the media is her strong point and is the #1 requirement for a Republican candidate.
I still lean towards the idea that Palin simply won’t run...but...this article is pretty persuasive. She might just run. If she does, she might actually win the nomination. And if she wins the nomination, she might just actually become President.....
The left wingers WANT SP as the nominee. They will cross over and vote for her in open primary states (NH?) to help nominate the “worst” possible GOP candidate.. Like Juan in 2008.
*The poster that holds that record claims the post was not anti-Palin, but we are awarding a temporary first until someone goes off at #4.
LLS
Your post is chock full, as always, of statistics, trends and really good strategy. A pleasure to read.
I cannot quarrel with much of it. I would only make two observations. One has to do with New Hampshire. I am sure Palin will play the expectations game and accede to the conventional wisdom that Romney is the strong favorite in NH. But now to reality. As you point out in your post, New Hampshire is a retail state and Mitt does not do well with retail politics. As you say, he lost New Hampshire to McCain, an inferior retail politician in 2008 by 5.5%. Matched against Palin, can he expect to do better? I think not. I think she will win Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Mitt has a chance to win Nevada becasue of the heavy Mormon vote, but the pressure will be heavy upon him to drop out. I do not expect the nomination fight to be protracted. It will be shorter than it was in 2008, even though the calendar will prolong it. I do not think Mitt can sustain losses in the first three primaries and come back. Reagan did it in 1976 with the help of Helms and his committed organization in NC, but Mit draws no such loyalty.
Second— The Debate with Obama. The MSM will call Obama the winner of the debate no matter how it goes. They did the same for Carter in 1980. It did not work. Carter had a record and Reagan exposed it. More to the point, Reagan showed himself to be a reasonable man who could be President, although there were many more doubts about him them than there are about Palin now. In fact, Carter was leading Reagan by about 3-5 points just before the debate. The Country then became completely comfortable with the idea of Reagan as President and they proceeded to do what had been their inclination for nearly a year. They fired Carter.
I think the former mayor of San Francisco and Speaker of the California Assembly, Willie Brown—a shrewd observer of politics—has commented on Palin’s political genius. Her resignation was a master stroke that freed her to pivot right into the maelstrom here in the lower 48. The liberals had planned to pin her down with ethics complaints, effectively neutralizing her for the Obama “push for socialism” and for the 2010 midterms. She refused to play the game. And her audacity has paid rich dividends already.
She has shown that she is willing to take chances, long chances to win. (She resigned from a lucrative job as Chairman of the Oil and Gas Commission to take down the corrupt Murkoski, a long shot at the time) And she is supremely self confident. She has been through a national campaign, something Reagan had never done until 1980. Reagan always felt the need to rely upon the experts on the national political scene. His adviser’s referred to it as their “Sacramento inferiority complex”. Palin labors under no such disability. she well knows these “consultants” are a bunch of empty suits.
Palin also has an intuitive ear for political combat, and this will be the key to the debate. Just as she coined the term “death panel”, she will deliver a bon mot in the debate that will be replayed and will become the coup de grace for Obama. I would not want to be in Obama’s shoes defending his Marxism against a conservative populist like Palin, particularly one with her political skills.
I am sad to say that Our Lady of Wasilla is not popular in NH, for many of the same reasons W only got 29% of the vote in the 2000 primary.