Skip to comments.Mitt Romney and why the Virginia-Colorado scenario means his defeat
Posted on 07/14/2012 7:13:11 PM PDT by techno
Search around the internet and among most pundits you will find this conclusion:
Among sure blue states and blue states that lean blue President Obama now commands 247 electoral votes (EV) adjusted for the 2010 census.
These states include:
Washington state (12)
New Mexico (5)
New York State (29)
New Jersey (14)
Rhode Island (4)
Now Mitt Romney commands 180 EV adjusted for the 2010 census:
South Dakota (3)
North Dakota (3)
South Carolina (9)
West Virginia (5)
Now that accounts for 427 EV which leaves 111 EV outstanding.
Now here is how they break down:
a) 5 largest battleground states
North Carolina (15)
Total 86 EV
And finally 4 smaller swing states:
New Hampshire (4)
Total 25 EV
Now here is how a lot of pundits see the 2012 election. Bottom line--Romney needs to win 4 of the 5 largest battleground states: Indiana appears to be in the bag, but he needs to win Florida for sure and 2 of 3 of Ohio, VA, and NC at a bare minimum to have any chance of becoming the president.
For example with the Goode candidacy putting Virginia in doubt for Romney if Romney were to win Indiana, Ohio, NC and Florida that would increase his total by 73 EV to 253 EV. He would therefore need 17 EV to eke out a bare victory.
Now why I call it the Virgina-Colorado scenario is if Romney loses Virginia he is then forced to win Colorado with its 9 EV and and 2 out of 3 of Iowa, Nevada and NH. In other words if Romney loses both Virginia and Colorado, Obama will be re-elected.
So this begs two questions:
a) What can Romney do to have any chance to win Virginia?
b) What can Romney do to have any chance of winning Colorado?
Imho, he needs to put a rock-ribbed conservative on the ticket who has the ability to "steal" Goode's conservative support away from him. Otherwise he has to pray Goode doesn't get the 10,000 required signatures to get on the ballot or Goode dies of a heart attack.
As for Colorado, he needs to put on the ticket a westerner with either libertarian or Hispanic ties at a minimum or a rock-ribbed conservative to win over evangelical voters in Colorado. A cushy safe moderate won't cut it in CO or VA.
And conservatives, I think you have to start asking yourself this question: Do you really want to go into the election with a candidate as flawed as Romney or failing that don't you think it would be in your best interests to demand Romney put a rock-ribbed conservative on the ticket to at least to give him a shot at either Virginia or Colorado or both?
LOL- didn’t you last attempt with this garbage 15 minutes ago get put in the recycle bin by the moderators???
as far as your pie in the sky dream about Goode costing Romney the state of Virginia- did you bother to look at the PPP polls you contrived this garbage from last time before it was sent to the crapper??? did you notice the poll had a +12 rat tilt in the data???
The polls have them tied by heavily oversampling democrappers. We need conservatives in the House and Senate to whak romney in the head not to do stoooopid things.
0 wins 2 states and DC.
If the federal personal income tax is causing you problems get rid of it. The thing was intended to tap only the top 1% or 2% anyway. The fact it taps the top 53% is a crime.
Get with the picture. None of us approve of higher taxes on anybody ~ except you guys with your personal income tax garbage.
Are you sure about that? I was in Berkeley (California) today and counted a total of about THREE BO/Biden bumper stickers.
My count is:
Romney 206 EV
Obama 201 EV
with Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, Utah and Iowa up for grabs. The idea that Obama has 247 EVs lock up is silly almost as silly as the idea that North Carolina is a swing state.
Correction: California + New York = 84 votes.
Hope you’re right.
To your way of thinking, heck why even bother HAVING an election, let’s just give Obama the election now.
Getting sick of this stuff real fast.
Obama is now losing “Wisconsin (10)”
And Obama is behind in Iowa.
Hes already doing that every other day
Rasmussen has already given Michigan and Pennsylvania to Obama.
As for Utah, Romney has their 6 EV in the bag.
In the RCP average of polls they have Wisconsin at:
I’m not going to totally disagree with you on Wisconsin but I think putting Paul Ryan on the ticket might give me a little more confidence that Romney could pull it off.
I see Obama winning Wisconsin by about 3-4 points. But a win is a win.
LOL- class envy and hatred??? funny thing; besides your delusional rhetoric which is commonly found on sites such as democratic underground, you’ve done nothing to prove my tagline is anything but true...
you keep pining for virgil goode- i’ll keep laughing at you....
The latest NY Times map shows you to be incorrect.
Forget Goode. Looming defense cuts and no support from Kaine will doom Obama in VA.
Just a reality check. Jimmah Carter was up by over 12 points at the end of September in 1980. We all know how that turned out.
So you have advanced training in statistic and can calculate the correct standard error for polls of different samples from different populations and know how to correct the sloppy work of RCP into something meaningful?
As for Rsmussen giving anyone any state, the don’t and the can’t. That is decided on election day.
Romney is going to win Wisconsin.
Mickey Mouse would win against Obowma.....Palin should have run.
Regardless of what the pundits or polls say -
Romney needs to run like he REALLY wants to win. HE needs to not keep the kid gloves on as McLame did in 2008.
He needs to pick a solid Conservative for the VP slot, and he needs to run like he is 5 pts. behind... and he needs to keep running all the way until inauguration. IF he doesn’t, then the Rats could still take (steal) this election.
After all, The only break in campaigning Obummer has done in the last 4 years are his frequent golf outings (and I guarantee most of those had plenty of campaigning going on...)
Thank you! What if? Oh...the polls...yes....Personally with articles like this....I think these are Obama operatives....attempting to spread dis-information...
Romney should just go for broke and ask Sarah Palin to come aboard, or order one of his aides to “leak” a secret message of that intention to see what the polls do.
Obviously Condi Rice doesn’t have the activism Sarah Palin could generate.
Sure asking Sarah Palin to be the VP nominee is like adding rocket fuel to a lumbering diesel truck, but as long as the wheels stay on it will be one heck of a ride.
How many of those states Obama “commands” is he over 50 percent? If he isn’t there now, he probably will lose.
What can Romney do to have any chance to win Virginia?
One of two things:
1. Use some of those millions in the campaign coffers to dig up all the dirt on Virgil Goode that they can, and find something really sinister in his, or a close family member’s, past. If they can’t find anything, pay someone to propagate a detestable lie on Mr. Goode, and recant after the Election by saying: “Oh, I’m sorry; I had him confused with Virgil Googenheimer whom I haven’t seen since 1987.
2. The Weekend before the Election, pay a large sum of money to have someone release, to “World Net Daily” and “The Drudge Report”, a digitally manipulated picture of Virgil Goode having sex with a dog. That would turn-off the otherwise Romney supporters sending them back into the GOP Column, and it would so excite 50% of the Obama voters they’d switch over and vote for Mr. Goode, for sure.
Hey, with a lot of money, in the internet age, they can do just about anything. And, there is no politician above committing an act that most would consider some odious; shall we say?
“Utah ... up for grabs”
This is a joke..... right?
For starters: You can move New Mexico, Wisconsin, Michigan and “possibly” Pennsylvania to the GOP Column. Piss on the pundits. After that, how is it looking for Obama? He’s trailing Romney now 231-196
Your theory that putting “rock-ribbed conservative on the ticket” will help him win Colorado is a joke, right?
Oh well, it’s cheap entertainment.
Or should Romney put on the ticket a gay moderate who is for gun control?
Not joke, a mistake. I meant Nevada not Utah.
May the Lord grant us favor
Good analyses. He was a poor selection because he was a Rockefeller liberal-socialist and the rest in the field were actually conservatives. Now he wants baby killer Rice as VP!! You can’t make this up. Our only hope is mutiny at the convention.
I’m voting for Mickey Mouse!
OBama could, once AGAIN, collect the Electoral Vote from Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Last time Nebraska split it’s Electoral Vote... 4 McCain & 1 Obama.
Yeah, we get it. You are pimping for your boy Obama to win.
Agreed. Still, that was my second vote and I was enthusiastic about RR. I voted for Carter in my first because I was stupid. I can't get excited about Myth. Watch yer knot!
Techno, after reviewing your flawed logic in this thread of yours, may I advise you to review post #28 and consider trying tiddly winks while performing hop scotch on your front lawn. Obama is going to lose in a landslide!
Marygonzo, welcome to fr; and btw, you might also want to try tiddly winks while performing hop scotch.
I have reflected on the Virginia-Colorado scenario and I stand by what I wrote.
However I think I know what Mitt Romney intends to do:
1) Abandon Virginia and go all in in Wisconsin and its 10 EV. Put Paul Ryan on the ticket who will also help out in Indiana and Ohio. Nate Silver already has given Romney a good chance of winning NC and with the Bushes and Rick Scott in Florida he will feel he should win there as well.
Add all that up you have 83 EV which you can add to the original 180 EV to take Romney to 263 EV.
2)Romney therefore is not forced to win Colorado to become President. He only then needs to win 2 of these 3 states (Nevada, Iowa, NH).
In other words here is a way for Romney to avoid the Virginia-Colorado scenario and for him to have a reasonable shot at being President.
But in this scenario it all comes down to Wisconsin. But if I were in Romney’s shoes I would rather it comes down Wisconsin a less conservative state than Virginia a very conservative state especially in Southern Virginia.
on the Obama states I wouldn’t necessarily bet my life on Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Your post #43 is right on mark!
“Mickey Mouse would win against Obowma....”
A terrible underestimation, my FRiend.
Unless a miracle happens in August, we’re stuck with Romney and we’d better PRAY he wins.
I’m so curious - how many here have any plans on what to do if BHO gets re-elected? Seriously. ‘Cause our America is toast if that happens, and don’t count on a Republican or Conservative House and Senate to stop him in whatever he tries to do.
See my post 33.
Or should Romney put on the ticket a gay moderate who is for gun control?
Yes; a Black, Lesbian moderate with an Hispanic surname who is of the Jewish faith and is pro-gun control but anti-amnesty. Now, that’s the ticket.
Get out and work your ass off to get Romney elected. Work like your life depends on it. Because it does.
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