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Why Gallup’s chief economist says the big drop in the unemployment rate ‘should be discounted’
AEIdeas ^ | October 8, 2012, 10:02 am | James Pethokoukis

Posted on 10/08/2012 11:31:50 AM PDT by Olog-hai

You can count pollster Gallup as another observer questioning Friday’s job report, in particular the big drop in the unemployment rate. In a blog post, Dennis Jacobe, Gallup’s chief economist, writes that he seriously doubts whether the economy created nearly 900,000 jobs in September, as measured by the Labor Department’s seasonally adjusted household survey.

While the payroll survey of businesses and government showed just 114,000 net new jobs created, the household survey showed a jobs boom, and it’s the latter which is used to calculate the unemployment rate. … His bottom line: “The Household results should be discounted. … The obvious conclusion is that a new employment measure is needed.” …

(Excerpt) Read more at aei-ideas.org ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Chit/Chat; Government; Politics
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; gallup

1 posted on 10/08/2012 11:31:55 AM PDT by Olog-hai
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To: Olog-hai

In order for the U3 number to be real. GDP would have had to grown at over 4%.


2 posted on 10/08/2012 11:34:55 AM PDT by massgopguy (I owe everything to George Bailey)
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To: Olog-hai

Because it defies logic?


3 posted on 10/08/2012 11:36:45 AM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (Resurrect the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC)...before there is no America!)
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To: Olog-hai
The reason why the latest unemployment figures should be discounted is because..."

...we made them up.

Signed,

The Dept. of Labor

4 posted on 10/08/2012 11:36:45 AM PDT by econjack (Some people are as dumb as soup.)
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To: Olog-hai

The Dictator in Chief and his thugs think the majority of We The People are morons like the ObamaPhone recipient on video that Rush keeps playing the audio of.

They’re wrong.


5 posted on 10/08/2012 11:37:05 AM PDT by ExTexasRedhead
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To: massgopguy

That is what Jack Welsh said. In order for that drop to occur the GDP would have to be 5%


6 posted on 10/08/2012 11:38:26 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Olog-hai

No kidding! Look at the chart of nonfarm jobs versus household survey here:

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com

Betty Crocker couldn’t have done a better job cooking the books.


7 posted on 10/08/2012 11:39:54 AM PDT by whitedog57
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To: Olog-hai

An alternate view is that the jobs were created over a number of months but not yet counted; finally, as the seasonal corrections were updated the jobs were counted. But in no case were the jobs really created all in one month.


8 posted on 10/08/2012 11:41:34 AM PDT by steve86 (Acerbic by nature not nurture TM)
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To: Olog-hai

He should just say it simply.

‘Obama lied to get good headlines before the election’


9 posted on 10/08/2012 11:43:36 AM PDT by barmag25
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To: Olog-hai
VIA RUSH:

*******

Axelrod has suggested in a TV interview -- again-- ...
....that the regime investigate/fule suit (p-u-n-i-s-h-) against Gallup... again...

Because they won't toe the line on spiking unfavorable poll results....
--AND/OR--
...Cooking the poll numbers therefore-- to always appear favorable to The One...

10 posted on 10/08/2012 11:48:59 AM PDT by Wings-n-Wind (The main things are the plain things!)
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To: Olog-hai

Doesn’t matter. The “word” - lower unemployment - is out and the Obamaphone people are buying it.


11 posted on 10/08/2012 11:50:16 AM PDT by choctaw man (Good ole Andrew Jackson, or You're the Reason God Made Oklahoma...)
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To: Olog-hai

I suppose Eric Holder now is gonna double-down on whatever Gallup was being investigated for.


12 posted on 10/08/2012 11:50:22 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Olog-hai

$50 Million Government Polling Contract with Gallup Attracts Scrutiny
http://blog.heritage.org/2012/08/29/50-million-government-polling-contract-with-gallup-attracts-scrutiny


13 posted on 10/08/2012 11:55:11 AM PDT by sunny48
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To: Olog-hai
Has anybody thought that this administration and the democrats can not afford for the republicans to control the House, Senate and the White House with all the illegal shenanigans in every branch of the democrat controlled government??

From fund raising to diplomacy that caused a death of an ambassador, from gun running to fake job numbers, from solandra to NAZI EPA experiments....and the list just goes on and on.

What if the Republicans decided to expose everything the dems have done to leave a very blackened dem party??? I have been one who has said Romney would win all along....I am not sure dems can allow it. If the republicans only go in and expose the fraud in the jobs numbers just so they have real numbers to work with when elected, think about what that would do to this democrat party and the media who did not do their job....then multiply that by every department out there.

This is a mess.

14 posted on 10/08/2012 12:02:01 PM PDT by Lady Heron
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To: steve86

I believe allowing young 16-30 year/old illegals to apply for work permits early this summer distorted the U-3. That executive order affected nearly 1.8 million illegals, many of whom were already working ‘under-the-table’. They are now counted as legally employed. Presto! U-3 declines! However the real job situation is still deteriorating.


15 posted on 10/08/2012 12:10:03 PM PDT by yadent
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To: ExTexasRedhead

So far the majority is not moron but at least 35% are. Thus, we must constantly watch for 15% straying into moronity.


16 posted on 10/08/2012 12:14:08 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: choctaw man
>"The “word” - lower unemployment - is out and the Obamaphone people are buying it."

B0mma ph0ne is free!

Woman Threatens To Blow Up The Light Company OVER A $14 ELECTRIC BILL 2:03

17 posted on 10/08/2012 2:11:00 PM PDT by rawcatslyentist ("Behold, I am against you, O arrogant one," Jeremiah 50:31)
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To: steve86

The seasonal ‘corrections’ was probably where the fudging occurred, IMO.


18 posted on 10/08/2012 6:01:50 PM PDT by expat2
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