Gallup Poll's New 7-Day Average Defies Logic!

Self,Vanity | 10/8/2012 | self

[zencycler]

Look at the new 7-Day average numbers Gallup now has, as of Oct 7th, showing Obama getting 50% to Romney's 45%. (Link - 7 day at Upper Right) Here's the problem:

Gallup says the 3-day average, pre-debate, was 0-50% and R-45%, and also says the average for the 3 days after the debate (Oct 4 to Oct 6) was 0-47% and R-47%.

So by my calculation, in order to get the 7-day average back to where Gallup now has it, here's what would have to happen:

Date___10/1___10/2___10/3___10/4___10/5___10/6___10/7___Avg.

Obama___50____50____50____47____47____47____59____50.0
Romney__45____45____45____47____47____47____39____45.0

There is NO WAY that the one-day polling on 10/7 suddenly could have surged to 59% for Obama and 39% for Romney, and based on Gallup's own numbers for Oct. 1 to Oct. 6, I don't see any other way for them to get to this 7-day rolling average.

Am I missing something?

[zencycler]

I think you are confusing the 7 day tracker with their 3 day tracker. They do both. The 3 day tracker was 47-47. The 7 day is 49-46

No, I'm not confusing them, I'm comparing them and trying to reconcile them. If you use Gallup's numbers for the 3 days before and the 3 days after the debate, then you add results for ONE more day (Oct 7th), you cannot come up with their rolloing average of 50-45 unless on Oct 7th the daily result was 59-39, which makes absolutely no sense.

[MNJohnnie]

You are seeing why Gallup was number 18 in accuracy in 2008.