Tell Me Again How 2012 Won’t Be Another “Shellacking”?

Deprogramming Liberalism ^ | October 2/12 | Jim Autio

[DeprogramLiberalism]

[October 2 /12]

The story lately has been about over-sampling of Democrats in polls, leading to an orthodox media conclusion that President Obama has opened a large lead over challenger, Mitt Romney. I have a question, however.

In 2010 the Republicans decimated the Democrats in what President Obama termed a “shellacking”. That election was fought based on voter approval of Obama’s first two years of policies. Well, now it is 2012, and President Obama’s approval rating is identical to that of late 2010: Obama’s Approval Rating Mirrors 2010. So, tell me how this won’t translate into another “shellacking”?

We are constantly reminded that the economy is the most important issue in the presidential election. President Obama insists that Americans are better off now than they were four years ago. But I am willing to bet if you were to look at Americans’ bank statements, they would vehemently disagree: Americans’ Incomes Have Fallen $3,040 During the Obama ‘Recovery’. So once again, please tell me how this won’t translate into another “shellacking”?

President Obama insists that the economy is in an improving recovery. Shouldn’t manufacturing then be picking up? Largest drop in factory orders since 2009 So, here we go again. Pretty please, with jam on it, explain to me how this won’t translate into another “shellacking”?

We keep being told that independents decide elections. No doubt President Obama won the majority of independents’ support in 2008. This time around President Obama is in big trouble with independents: Media Ignore Independents’ Swing Toward Romney. I am pleading with you. Please, please tell me how this won’t translate into another “shellacking”?

One more time, the polls repeatedly reveal that the state of the economy is the most important concern of voters in 2012. It takes no leap of genius to figure out that whoever voters feel most comfortable with in regard to the economy will also win the election: Polls Romney leads Obama 51% to 44% in trust to handling the economy. This is getting very tiring. Let’s put an end to this by you telling me right now how this won’t translate into another “shellacking”?

In 2008 Republicans were demoralized and Democrats were enthusiastic about voting – the enthusiasm gap. It turned into a huge Democrat win. This year is a complete reversal: Republicans have opened a big enthusiasm gap: 64% say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, compared to 48% of Democrats. OK. Enough of being the nice guy – just spell it all out how this won’t translate into another “shellacking”?

Here’s more confirming Democrat’s lack of voter enthusiasm. Democratic voter registrations are down much more than Republican registrations. I’m done – please just lay it all out and explain to me how this won’t translate into another “shellacking”?

Update 1: Well, President Obama mailed in his debate performance last night just as he has mailed in his stint as President. 67% of those who watched the debate said that Mitt Romney won the debate: “No presidential candidate has topped 60% in that question since it was first asked in 1984″ Tell me, was that a presage of a coming “shellacking”?

Update 2: The number of Americans who watched last night’s Obama meltdown was up a full 29% from the number who watched the first debate in the 2008 election: More people watch than in 2008 How is it that this will not translate into another “shellacking”?

Update 3: This just in from the IRS – yes, the IRS! (You can’t find a bigger authority on taxes than the IRS.) Obama tax hike threatens one million small businesses One more time – how won’t this translate into another “shellacking”?

Update 4: In the Gallup poll, as of October 2, Mitt Romney is polling higher than every challenger who has gone on to win the presidency since 1968: Romney Has Best Gallup Tracking Poll Numbers Since 1968 How can this not turn into another “shellacking”?

Update 5: Gallup sees a 15% swing in the ratio of Republican to Democrat voters in the 2012 election from the 2008 election. In 2008 it was D+12. This time it will be R+3. Gallup: 2012 Electorate More Republican than 2004 Tell me again how this won’t translate into another “shellacking”?

Update 6: I had heard that undecideds on election day mostly break for the challenger. So I did a Google search:
Over 80% of the time, most or all of the undecideds voted for the challenger
Eighty percent of the undecided vote went to the challengers
72% of all undecideds broke toward the challenger
So tell me one more time how this won’t translate into another “shellacking”?

Update 7: In 2008 on October 28 Obama had a 15% lead in early voting ballots. This election Romney has a 7% lead – a 22% swing from 2008: Gallup: Obama’s Early Vote Advantage Collapses 22-Points Over 2008
How can this not be another “shellacking”?

[DeprogramLiberalism]

Thanks for the links.

Your welcome.

I'll put you down as an optimist - extreme optimist.

[DeprogramLiberalism]

I am a conservative which makes me according to DemocRats and Libertarians as a racist, sexist, bigot, homophobe, Muslim hater. Oh yeah, I'm also a Southern redneck which pretty much makes me hopeless.

Oh, stop bragging - I doubt you'll impress anyone here. ;-}

As fed up as Americans are at the state of the economy, I doubt complacency will be a problem.

[DeprogramLiberalism]

I have added another update to the blog post.

Update 8: Turns out that the Romney lead in early voters in the last update may be more important than just the numbers. It seems base Democrats are voting early more so than base Republicans, leaving it more likely of a larger election day turnout for Republicans. (I have to admit though, that this one is a bit iffy to me.)
Some see GOP voting tsunami coming
Anyway, even if this doesn’t work out, how will everything else not translate into another “shellacking”?

[noprogs]

Someone rousing my ramble is nearly as traumatic as being shot in the fracas.

Believe me, getting capped in the fracas sure does smart.

[DeprogramLiberalism]

Update of Update 7: Pew confirms Gallup: Pew: Obama’s Early Vote Average Collapses 26-Points Over 2008