The Republican Schism

There is a data set within yesterday’s CNN poll that even CNN largely overlooked, but that explains so much of the current tension within the Republican Party.

.......The real division within the Republican Party now isn’t even between those who call themselves tea partiers fighting the establishment. “Tea party”, like “conservative” and “Republican”, has less meaning these days and I increasingly dislike using the word. Admittedly though, everyone would consider me one based on the general parameters of what the tea party is.

In any event, the real fight within the Republican Party now is between those who believe we actually are at the moment of crisis—existential or otherwise—and thereby must fight as we’ve never fought before and those who think the GOP can bide its time and make things right.

At this moment, this boils down to a fight largely between Main Street and the K Street/Wall Street Alliance within the GOP. This gets us back to the CNN poll and the data set even CNN really missed.

This is shaping up to be a more destructive primary season for the GOP Establishment than either 2010 or 2012. Making it even more brutal, the Chamber of Commerce and large corporatist donors are teaming up to help the Establishment. With a base already feeling ignored by the K Street/Wall Street alliance whispering in the Establishment’s ear, the Chamber and large donor support of Establishment candidates will just give the base and conservatives more fodder for attacks.

Ultimately though, and this is the key everybody is missing, we have arrived at this point because the leadership of the party has fundraised off its opposition to Obamacare in two campaign cycles, but has never aggressively sought to oppose it legislatively.

the leadership of the party has fundraised off its opposition to Obamacare in two campaign cycles, but has never aggressively sought to oppose it legislatively.

Worse, the leadership has aggressively sought through legislative shams to deceive Main Street. The leadership through its duplicity has permitted a vacuum to grow within the party and when that vacuum was filled with Main Street representatives like Ted Cruz who actually aggressively opposed Obamacare legislatively the leadership undermined that effort and damaged the brand of the party.

Still worse, the whole pattern of duplicity made plain in the Obamacare scenario is but representative of the fraud perpetuated on the faithful of the party by its leadership on issue after issue for year after year. The Republican leadership has made hypocrisy an art form.

The degree of hypocrisy having become so transparent, the leadership having declined even to go through the motions to disguise its disdain for its own faithful, the Republicans of Main Street are left with no option but to revolt even if only for their own self-respect.

But the revolt of course is larger than that, it is over nothing smaller than the survival of the Republic itself and the flickering flame of liberty which, except for a few brave souls fighting the establishment on Obamacare, is fresh out of patriots in Washington.

Making it even more brutal, the Chamber of Commerce and large corporatist donors are teaming up to help the Establishment.

This may be true, even probably true. However, it neglects the fact that money cannot buy votes, especially the kind of votes of American Conservatives that have a seething, unabiding disgust for current entrenched RINOs in Congress - either side.

Misguided corporate traditional Republican Establishment support thinks its money can buy us. It cannot. It thinks it can buy moderates and independents. Obama can buy more. It thinks it can win the Latino vote. Obama can win more.

In reality, the Republican Establishment hates us because we are making their attempts to appease Democrats more difficult - very difficult. We are embarrassing them and their "good friends" across the aisle. Senator Cruz is their hated enemy. He is our Godsend. And, that is the crux of the matter. Game on! See you next November fellas.....

I’m curious about something:

Let’s say that we get a best-case scenario in 2014.
The GOP-e gets it’s collective butt handed to them in the primaries and TEA party candidates sweep in and give Repubs a majority in the Senate and hold it in the House.

That would mean a lot of big money donors would be “marginalized” as a result. They’re used to having influence and I’m sure that they would not sit idly by on the sidelines. Would they (the big money donors) make a big push for one of their own for 2016, creating a juggernaut campaign for someone like Jeb Bush?

My fear is that the media would glom on to that and conservatives would find themselves fighting a two-front war in 2016... against the GOP-e and the media (McCain 2008 redux).

What say you?

What say you?

I think whoever can nationalize the election can "win" it. Therefore, your scenario is not entirely far-fetched but we should have in mind that gerrymandering has made the Republicans relatively safe in most of their seats in the House and only one third of the Senate comes up so the possibility of a sweep election is mitigated.

Accepting your scenario, the question comes up for the big-money donors (big business-Wall Street-Koch brothers) who would they deal with? In other words, would Boehner be unhorsed in the House? More likely he would resign and pass the baton. If Cantor wants the speakership expect a real donnybrook. Whom would the big-money donors deal with in the Senate? Same question arises, who would be the majority leader? I suspect Mitch McConnell would retain the position because two thirds of the Republicans who are already there would be affected by the election only to the degree that they are intimidated. Again, if it's a sweep election and there are major upsets in the primaries (not even excepting McConnell, of course) there might well be a change in leadership.

One thing is for sure about big business donors: they are not ideologically motivated rather they are strategically motivated, they will cut a deal which lies in their interests. Nor are they especially fastidious, they will deal with anyone in power even if they might prefer a Rino who is well-connected in Georgetown and with the Wall Street Journal editorial page rather than a main street conservative who actually believes in God.

A clever Tea Party conservative running either The House or the Senate can find ways to extract money for the 2016 election from these donors when he makes plain the pain he is sparing them, not from conservatives or even from Rinos, but from progressives.

Clearly, the media will shade to the left, that is it will prefer a progressive over a blue dog Democrat, a Democrat over a Republican, a Rino over a conservative and a libertarian opportunistically. Look at the treatment they have given Ted Cruz but also look at the way, Ted Cruz has handled the treatment. He has not put a foot down wrong as far as I can tell either in making his case against Obamacare or in defending himself against the establishment wing in the Senate or against the media. That is a remarkable accomplishment by someone who is embattled but not broken and shows us what can be done when you have an able even a charismatic figure making the case.

To sum up, I think we need to nationalize the election, we need to do it behind a charismatic figure, we must unite against the Rinos first, (not against the Democrats first as is now being suggested) then against the media and the Democrats. We have to let the consequences abide the effort and not shrink from flat-out opposition to the establishment in the Republican Party. If we succeed in that the money will flow, we have to believe the votes will come (or our philosophy is worthless), and the media will be held at bay at least for a time.

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