Posted on 04/24/2016 9:27:12 AM PDT by ziravan
Donald Trump will not reach 1237 delegates before the GOP July Cleveland Convention and there will be a floor fight for the Nomination.
For the purposes of this analysis, both Sen. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are peripheral characters. Both will continue to pursue their best strategy to the nomination, Trump on first ballot, Cruz on 2nd or 3rd (most likely 4th after Florida delegates are released).
There will be a contested convention because the media will push for it.
1. Blood in the streets in Cleveland? Damn, that's a generational story. Somebody's gonna win a Pulitzer here.
2. Permanent fracture in the GOP? That's the left's wet dream.
All you have to do is look at the flow of the narrative to understand that the media is fully vested in a contested convention and everything they hope to gain from it.
They haven't put thousands of camera hours into this narrative to let it slip away.
Fortunately for them, getting from here to there is a two step jump. After this Tuesday, the narrative will be (is already starting) that Sen Cruz is remaking himself into a more positive image - he's being nicer, showing his humanity- and is gaining new respect in Indiana).
Between Indiana on May 3rd and California on Jun 7, the media will have a month to sell its story to its home base, California.
Bernie Sanders most likely drops after Tuesday's election, so there will be no Democrat primary to attract democrat voters. Also, voting for offices below President in California goes by two most popular vote getters, regardless of party. This means democrat voters can switch to vote in the GOP Presidential primary without losing the ability to vote for their choices "down ballot". And, the deadline to switch is May 23rd.
Now. Democrat crossover has been good for Donald Trump, right? Partially, yes, however, with a contested democrat primary, crossover voters have generally been disaffected democrat voters.
California, with no contested democrat primary and for all the Presidential marbles on the GOP side, will bring out a different democrat animal, an Operation Chaos democrat. Chaos this cycle for the GOP certainly favors a contested convention.
The only check to voting for Chaos is that for Cali leftists, that's a vote for Cruz. Here though, Trump's more strident supporters are making the case by threatening to walk. Daydreams of a permanent rift in the GOP will be make Nominee Cruz more palatable to leftists who believe such a rift makes him unelectable. And that's even assuming the convention doesn't turn to a white knight that will make things worse!
Watch the narrative after Tuesday. Sen. Cruz being the little engine that could narrative for Indiana is a portend for a straight month of media influencing the California outcome.
The media wants a contested convention. They will work for it. They already are working for it. Fortunately for the media, they get a month to play to their home base, California.
Typical Tedlim thread management - ignore the neutron bomb in the middle of the thread but continue to bump your embarassing vanity...which I will gladly do...
The media is about ratings, so a contested convention is a gift wrapped present for them.
This could be cut off at the knees if Cruz and K-sick drop out and endorse Trump, but they are too invested in their own image and egos.
I detest those two.
Anyone who think the MSM is somehow FOR Trump needs to watch Major Garrett (formerly of Fox News, now with CBS). Everytime this guy discusses Trump, he can’t help but hide his sense of condescension. I don’t think it’s an act (though—apparently his time at Fox News WAS an act).
Its time for you to face the reality that Cruz lost. There’s nothing he or you can say or do that is going to change that. It will become even more apparent that Ted is done on Tuesday night. Nothing is going to reverse this trend.
Needed to win nomination: 1,237
Donald Trump: 845
Ted Cruz: 559
Marco Rubio: 171
John Kasich: 148
Ben Carson: 9
Jeb Bush: 4
Carly Fiorina: 1
Mike Huckabee: 1
Rand Paul: 1
Not yet allocated: 733
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/
Needed to win nomination: 2,383
Hillary Clinton: 1,941 (includes 513 superdelegates)
Bernie Sanders: 1,191 (includes 38 superdelegates)
Not yet allocated: 1,633
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/
Some of you allow the enemedia to set the narrative for you way, way too much.
It’s like the enemedia’s narrative of Donald Trump strictly being a democrat and liberal which has been vetted to death here and turns out that is not so. Yes, he gave to candidates of all flavors as a BUSINESSMAN but the media tried to use that to tie directly to the democrats only, which turned out was not true.
Too many people, even here, bought in to their deceptive narrative.
The answer is to completely tune out the enemedia because they are NOT friends of freedom and liberty.
Oh and Cruz and the establishment is DONE! Time to rally behind Donald Trump and his Pro-American platform (the enemedia will refuse to tell you that).
CGato
CGato
LOL!!
I would argue that Trump's best chance for the nomination, if he doesn't make it on the first ballot, is a Trump-Cruz deal. I would also argue that the best chance for Cruz to gain from this very ugly primary year is a Trump-Cruz deal.
I would love to see Cruz on the Supreme Court, and I suspect most conservatives who are not wallowing in anger at him would agree. I would also like to see Trump with the local and state organizations needed to win in November. The party will not help Trump with that, they'd rather lose, but a motivated Ted Cruz could do it better than anyone else alive. It's almost deal making time for the two of them.
At this point even Fox News is getting Trump to 1237 by June 7th. Only hard core Cruz kool aiders are still talking contested convention. Its not happening folks.
Debbie Wasserman spin, spin, spin this woman is nauseating!!!!!
Yes Debbie Blabbermouth Schultz is without doubt on the most obnoxious list. LOL!
Cruz will NEVER drop out his ego will not allow it, after all he does believe HE IS the smartest person in the room!!!
I invite you to look at any thread you want on FreeRepublic. The first post is part of the original posting and the tagline doesn’t attach.
It’s a standard convention.
I’m not being dishonest.
You’re wrong about the facts.
But. Consistent with the demonization of those that don’t agree with you, I won’t hold my breath for an apology.
Sen. Cruz will do what’s in his best interest to win the White House, now or in the future. If he believes his current efforts are futile, he’ll hold his powder for next time.
When I donated to Cruz the day he announced, I did so realizing it might take more than one run to win.
I think Bernie takes it to the convention just for the fact he has so much support and $$$ from so many people. He is going to have to play nice though. Bernie and Donald both have the power to destroy their respective parties.
With Ted Cruz exposing himself that he will do anything to help the corrupt establishment, he is damaged goods, and at this point, there will NOT be a next time. You are going to have to eventually deal with this fact.
CGato
If that’s true, than I do apologize.
"Ignore the earlier narrative I was pimping, this is what I really meant by burying the lede."
Trump easily gets 1237 and Cruz is a distant memory by California”
My assessment and hope also.
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