Posted on 10/18/2016 8:19:58 AM PDT by TheRef
The state polls tell a different story than the national polls. Even if the national polls are accurate, and I am showing a five-point Hillary lead, none other than Nate Silver acknowledges Trump could win fairly easily without winning the national popular vote. Funny how he's dropped that point lately.
Further, Clinton has had every advantage and she is not solidified close to fifty percent in polling. Normally, this represents a tell tale sign of likely defeat, but fivethirtyeight.com explains that away. Their analysis, however, largely applies to early polling, so what about the fifty percent rule now? Perhaps they should revisit that question.
National polls that sharply diverge from bellwether state polls should be ignored. They are not reflecting what is going on where it really matters, the battleground states. The track record of battleground states, furthermore, in reflecting the actual national popular vote is likely a better indicator of where the national popular vote will actually fall. Why does the national media breathlessly report the most extreme national polls which pollsters know are the least accurate? It's hard to blame anything but media bias. Our nation elects presidents through fifty-one state elections and polls of those elections reflect a close race. It's certainly not an eleven or twelve point race.
The state polling tells a story of a fairly close race by historic standards, certainly a race that can go either way considering all of the new information we are likely to see between now and election day, most of which is bad for Hillary Clinton. It seems like the national media knows this and is trying to finish off Donald Trump so nobody bothers to ask if Hillary Clinton should be president. More on those state polls in a moment. First lets take a look at my national popular vote projection. It shows Trump behind by about five points.
 National Polls |
Ref's Projection: Clinton +5.1% Clinton 45.9, Trump 40.8 |
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How does my projection stack up when considering state polls? Very well. Even Nate Silver, who does tend to favor Democrats in his analysis, acknowledges that state polls overall seem to suggest a national lead of about seven points. He also acknowledges that yesterday's CNN polls are consistent with a national lead for Hillary of around three or four points. So I think the middle ground of five points looks about right. But of what use is national polling really? The truth, not much. |
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Polling the nation is always less precise than polling a state. Why? There are 310,000,000 Americans and 51 Electoral Jurisdictions, so there is much greater opportunity for polling errors. |
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My projection is designed to limit the impact of outlier polls because of this imprecision. Unfortunately, polls with extreme results often get reported breathlessly by the media despite their detachment from reality, like the two polls to the right, which I have heard about constantly. Boo! Dishonest! |
EXTREME RESULTS Monmouth, 726 Likely Voters, 12-Point Clinton lead NBC/WSJ, 908 Likely Voters, 11-point lead for Clinton
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How do we know these national polls are not very useful?The bellwether state polls have consistently reflected the national popular vote where it counts, in the actual vote. So shouldn't we look to the polls in those states to tell us where the nation is going? Consider Ohio and Florida. |
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 Ohio |
Ref's Projection: Clinton +0.9% Clinton 44.3, Trump 43.4 |
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12,000,000 Ohioans, 1 Electoral Jurisdiction Ohio's population is only 3% that of the nation. It's also has fewer political dynamics to figure out, so it's easier to get an accurate number. |
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Ohio has a long history of reflecting the national popular vote. See chart to the right. Perhaps we should look to the dead heat in Ohio and conclude that that national race is probably close as well. |
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 Florida |
Ref's Projection: Clinton +3.0% Clinton 45.9, Trump 42.9 |
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20,000,000 Floridian, 1 Electoral Jurisdiction Florida's population is 6.4% of the nation's population. It has far fewer political dynamics to understand, so it's easier to poll than the nation at large. |
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Florida has a long history of reflecting the national popular vote. See chart to the right. Perhaps we should look to the small lead Clinton has in Florida and understand that this is a close race. |
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REUTERS/IPSOS shows slightly bigger leads for Clinton, but does not reflect a large national lead |
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CNN showed us a battleground state race consistent with a 3 or 4 point national lead for Hillary
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My battleground state breakdownTrump has a very good chance of winning 265 electoral votes by winning the following states, FL, NC, OH, IA, AZ and NV. His problem comes in that he needs to add one more state from the following list. CO, NH, WI, MI, NM, PA or ME. MUST WIN STATES: He leads in Iowa and Arizona. He is within a point in Ohio and North Carolina. He trails by three points in Florida and Nevada. These are not bad numbers for Trump considering the disastrous two weeks he has had. He could turn these around with a good debate performance, some media focus on Hillary's problems or both. HE NEEDS TO WIN ONE OF THESE SEVEN: His chances in Colorado, Wisconsin and Michigan are probably not very good. He can still win either New Hampshire where he trails by 4.5%, and he has shown an ability to make Pennsylvania close, where he trails by 5.8%. New Mexico, if it votes in large numbers for Johnson, could be a Hail Mary pass for Trump. Trump has also made it close in Maine, but he's pretty far behind there now. So there's a very good chance it could all come down to New Hampshire where I think his chances are better than most people think. It's a small state where he can equal Hillary's spending. He also plays well there culturally as a northeastern rebel.
Ref's Battleground Index
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Well, that’s a lot to absorb. LOL! Thanks for the update. As we’ve all seen, DJT can hardly draw a room full of supporters any more. Oh, wait....................
Posts based on polls are no better than posts based on pure wild-ass guesses.
The idea that there’s that many people supporting Hillary. Scary.
Trump has many millions of secret voters and that’s what the MSM is working on
Sean Hannity said during his radio show yesterday that if the election were to be held today that Trump would lose.
This is not to say that Clinton would win. It means that Clinton would steal the presidency with millions of illegal votes.
DAMN THE POLLS - IT WILL BE A TRUMP LANDSLIDE - REASON ? ENTUSIASM ! ITS NOT THERE FOR HILLARY ! BUT FOR TRUMP ! THAT WILL PRODUCE A LANDSLIDE! PLUS THE BLACK VOTE IS WAY UP FOR TRUMP COMPARED TO 4 YEARS AGO
Nice work there on the polling stats.
“hey are also telling you that unproven allegations from women are all that matter, but that isn’t correct either.”
They’re trying to “Herman Cain” him. That has worked in the primaries, but it has never worked in a general election. It didn’t even work against Bill Clinton, and the allegations against him were much more solid and specific.
Trump is really at around 65-74% with Hillary under 20%.
Exactly.
The enthusiasm factor will win this election for Trump. Additionally, the pollsters are basing their results on 2012 turnout for Obama. Not going to happen this election.
Midterm map records Congressional races. 2016 is an electoral readout.
“..not bad numbers for Trump considering the disastrous two weeks he has had. ...”
Should be
“...not bad numbers for Trump considering the two weeks’ smearing by the media he has had. ...”
Trump will kill Shitlerey in NY. Game ovah ...
Ignore the polls and pray for our country
Obama's handling the voter fraud financing. Read on.
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BACKSTORY Obama and Congressional Democrats----with a huge assist from then-AG Eric Holder----gave NeighborWorks America (formerly ACORN) and La Raza a huge funding source of tax dollars (to achieve Obama's dream of a permanent Democrat majority?).
The forced banks to pay penalties not to consumers who were harmed.....but to these nefarious organizations.
DOJ went after CitiCorp and ordered them to pay $50 million to La Raza and NeighborWorks America as part of the settlement.
Another clause in the agreement makes it possible for La Raza and NeighborWorks America to rake in even larger amounts of money.
Of the remaining money the banks needed to pay in settlements, the banks were able to contribute additional money to La Raza and NeighborWorks America. For every dollar they contribute, it reduces their debt to the government by 2 dollars. That’s some mighty powerful incentive to give generously.
================================================== House Judiciary Committee Chairman Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.) and House Financial Services Chairman Jeb Hensarling have questioned why this money was sent to the ACORN clone and the blood-thirsty LaRaza----rather than to the alleged victims of the bank’s crime. The administration of course declined to answer. “This settlements appear to serve as a vehicle for funding activist groups rather than as a means of securing relief for consumers actually harmed.”
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So now, with tons of money to fix the presidential election, the largest and most successful voter fraud campaign may alter the course of the elections not to mention the future of the United States.
NO WONDER HILLARY KEEPS SMILING.
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POINTS TO PONDER ABOUT RAMPANT DEM VOTER FRAUD
<><> Computer voter fraud is a cinch---the DNC can issue a command to a precinct computer to change all Repub votes to Dem.....then erase all the evidence. And remember, Boobabama is giving away the internet to globalists.
<><> MOTOR VOTER FRAUD: In Washington State to get the vote all you need to do is "complete a transaction" at any office...this means taking a number to ask for a brochure qualifies at any DMV office. Take a number, ask for a brochure......et voila.....you get to vote.
<><> Boobamba is importing Democrats by the truckload.....all from the dirt-poor Third world. Not only are they Hillary voters, but they are being placed where their numbers impact the electoral college.
<><> The DNC computers already know how many votes have to be manufactured on each block if not at each address. (hat tip wastoute) President Hillary is looming. The GOPe won’t even whimper. No wonder she keeps smiling.
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Our top priority should be the prevention of massive voter fraud in November. Voter fraud at every level is being launched ---- the smell of Democrat desperation to elect Hillary is everywhere.
I like your thinking!
The media has been feeding us BS for decades, these “polls” are more of the same.
Unless there is rampant voter fraud like in 2012, this contest is over.
The NBC poll from Oct 16 is the one that concerns me. Huge 29,000 sample with Hillary up 6 points.
Why don’t they include the Ohio poll.
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2012 Electoral College Map
