THREAT MATRIX 2018

Free Republic | 01-01-2018 | TM CREW

[Godzilla]

Soviets

Old habits are hard to break . . . . .

[Godzilla]

Daytime in Syria

Photographs show SU-30 with suspected antiship missiles flying in the eastern med off the coast of Syria. Sources claim photos taken today, but cant confirm or confirm ASW being carried.

French Frigate has joined with a US frigate in the eastern Med.

weather forecast has a cold front moving thru Syria tonight that may create dust storm conditions. New moon is the 16th.

With the Saudi Arabia supporting the US, overflight of larger US (bombers) assets now provides greater strike vector options than just from the Med.

[caww]

Thanks for posting updates as you learn about.....good info.plays right in to how I’m viewing situation too.

[LucyT]

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TM PING Updates.

Check out # 78, 79, 82.

Thanks, Godzilla.

[LucyT]

ntel doge
‏ @inceptiiion
1m1 minute ago

#SYRIA: A U.S official has stated that regardless of what the OPCW mission finds it will not affect the United States military response.

[Godzilla]

Airlive on twitter just announced a
Eurocontrol for eastern med has issued a 72 hr NOTAM for the eastern Med.

IDF reportedly now at high alert over situation with Syria.

RUMINT - British airforces in Cyprus preparing for some kind of activity (mobilizing?) very weak source

Overall view is that the pieces aren’t quite together yet. Russia and Syria pulling air assets out of potential target areas ASAP. Judging from the coalition coming together there will be a lot more fire power than 57 cruse missiles used last time.

[Godzilla]

RE: USS Truman is scheduled to deploy Wednesday from Naval Station Norfolk.

The strike group is heading to the U.S. Navy’s 5th and 6th Fleet areas on its latest deployment.
(www.wavy.com)

[Godzilla]

Around midnight Syria.

With the veto of the UNSC resolution, (RUMINT) it is reported that all necessary US assets are in place waiting for orders.

I’m not fully convinced everything is in place yet.

the NON GOV website monitoring global intel DEFCOM just raised it warning level from 5 to 4. REPEAT, this is not what our govt is at - but a private element.

[LucyT]

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https://defconwarningsystem.com

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[Godzilla]

RUMINT suggest Assad and his family have bugged out of the country for either Iran or Russia.

Russian federal aviation administration warns Russian airlines to be extremely cautious while operating in the eastern Med.

4 Navy E-6B “dooms day” planes are currently airborne - not totally unusual, but timing is everything.

tons or RUMINT. Don’t take everything reported as set.

[Godzilla]

RUMINT - Al Jazera reporting US coalition aircraft over the Iraq/Syria border. Looking for independent verification.

[Godzilla]

RUMINT - other reports of jets over the Lebanon/Syria border

REMEMBER - its still dark over there so proper identification questionable

[Godzilla]

Last update for the night

Monitoring the rumored air activity. Nothing burger as I suspected. Rumors flying all over the place tonight - but I don’t expect any action until tomorrow afternoon (midnight syria). since it is pretty reasonable that russian/iran/syrian air assets have been moved to ‘safe’ bases, the only things left to bomb would be major infrastructure - chemical plants, power, perhaps even assad’s govt buildings. One guided missile frigate with 60 cruse missiles isn’t going to do much except perhaps distract syrian/russian/iranian forces.

worst case scenario is that Iran takes the opportunity to launch a major strike against israel during the muck and confusion if a strike does happen.

[Godzilla]

Evening approaching Syria

Reading today’s current tea leaves.

- Russian ambassador states not only will Russia shoot down any missiles but will TARGET the launch platforms as well.

- USS Truman task force departs this afternoon and it will take approximately 9 days (at 30 kts) to get into position for any operational action against Syria. Apr 20th timeframe.

- Israel is eyeing Iran VERY closely. As I noted yesterday, Iran may use the ‘cover’ of any strike by US aligned forces to target Israel. RUMINT (though the JPost is reporting it) consists of Israeli promise to destroy Damascus if Iran (and probably its proxies) do anything.

- Russian ruble value has fallen off a cliff after Trump’s tweet this morning.

- Russia has recalled its ambassador to Israel.

- Indications that Syrian air and ground units continue airports and bases in anticipation of attacks

I’m am not convinced the assets necessary for a strike are fully in place yet. Mattis is not one to go off half cocked and not fully ready. Given the lack of naval assets any attack at this stage will likely be manned aircraft with perhaps bombers firing cruse missiles. Very risky operation given the Russian threat to fire back. I further don’t think this will be a one time shot, but multi-day operation, with further risk.

[Godzilla]

- Indications that Syrian air and ground units continue airports and bases in anticipation of attacks

Continue to evacuate / leave those airports and bases Not enough coffee this morning obviously

[Velveeta]

Things are ratcheting up. Lucy, thanks for the ping and Godzilla for the updates! I’m not able to post much these days, but do read everything on TM!

[Godzilla]

your welcome Vel. Since so much focus lately has been domestic, I decided to focus on using my recently found sources on this area.

[Godzilla]

Mid morning update

SecDef Mattis is scheduled to meet with the president at 2:00 EDT. Pentagon states they are ready to present military options to the President - seems that to happen within an hour.

There is a WH press briefing added to the schedule for 3:30 EDT

Seems like many are holding their breath

[LucyT]

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TM PING

Update.

Thanks, Godzilla.

[Godzilla]

WH press conference pushed off an hour?

Israel reportedly warns Russia it will not tolerate Iranian bases in Syria. Potential undercard match if/when US/UK/French units attack

Some analysts think the decision will be made tonight, but not executed tonight. Again, such a larger scale attack requires good coordination and Mattis is not a slouch on that.