Posted on 06/02/2011 8:09:42 PM PDT by Dr. Sivana
I believe that Palin's appearance in Boston and New Hampshire today, combined with what she said, has revealed her strategy to win the nomination.
I predict that Palin will pretty much leave Ron Raul, Tim Pawlenty, Herman Cain, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich alone. Her attacks on other candidates' positions will be attacks on Romney 90+% of the time.
The reason is very simple. In a two man race, if one of the candidates is Romney, the other one wins. Oh, Romney will win the Boston bedroom communities in New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and a couple of Mormon states out west.
The anti-Romney is going to win the South, the heartland and most of the west.
The anti-Palin people will have to gather around a candidate, and pick him early. It is in Palin's interest that a (to many people) new face like Pawlenty NOT get traction. By attacking Romney, she will actually gin up support for him among the anti-Palin people.
Meanwhile, people like Pawlenty, who want to split the difference, and those who are good conservatives who can only draw from Palin's total (e.g. Cain) will be struggling for oxygen.
Reagan did not bother attacking Phil Crane in 1980. Even when he was pushing for the whole crew (Bush, Dole, Baker, Anderson, Connolly and Crane) to be included in the debates, he knew after Iowa that it would be him against GHWB.
Whenever Palin attacks Romney, she energizes conservatives in general, and Palin supporters in particular. Whenever Romney attacks Palin through his surrogates, he does the same. That fact does no apply to any other opponent of Palin's at this time.
Some time ago, I predicted the possibility of a multi-ballot convention. I was mistaken. With no Thune, Daniels or Huckabee, and with Gingrich demonstrating an amazing lack of feel for the political climate, the race comes down to Palin and Romney. Paul has his supporters, but they are their own breed, kind of like what George Wallace was for the Democrats in 1976, a significant player who was going nowhere.
In a Palin/Romney matchup, Palin has to be considered the odds-on favorite.
And I use the word heart for a reason. I would gamble that most independent voters vote with their hearts.
The old saying....”If you aren’t a liberal at twenty, you don’t have a heart. If you aren’t conservative by the time you are forty, you don’t have a brain.”
Romney is the establishment choice & we all know what Sarah thinks of the establishment elite.......bye, bye Mittens.
Romney is the establishment choice & we all know what Sarah thinks of the establishment elite.......bye, bye Mittens.
I agree with you.
I’m just saying that the GOP seems split between the establishment and TP. It keeps looking like MR and SLP are going to emerge as the front runners. I think she looks at it kinda like a basketball game and MR is the antithesis of her.
If we have ‘free and fair elections’, SP will win because she will also get Independents and disillusioned Dems [including PUMAs].
I believe it is about Mormonism, but not in the way most people seems to think.
The reason that the MSM is salivating over a Romney nomination is because they have every intention of using his Mormonism against him in the run up to the general election.
Look, I like Mormons. They are, for the most part, hard working honest, patriotic, Conservative folk who are generous to a fault to those truly in need.
Having said that, there is aspects of Church’s early history, doctrine and belief system that will not go over well with large sections of the population — and you can bet every last centavo in your IRA that the MSM is going to splash it all over every available media, as provocatively as possible, in the months following the nomination (if he gets it).
So what if it’s sticking a knife into every Mormon on the face of the planet? The MSM does not like ANY religion, including Islam. They just keep their mouths shut about the Jihadis because they don’t want to be blown to flinders.
Now, when you add that to his already bad reviews among Conservatives, his two-faced weasel words on so many issues — and the anchor chain of Romneycare — it’s obvious that he has absolutely no chance of winning over the Independents and is thus utterly unelectable.
It would be McCain and Dole all over again. The man has absolutely no chance at ALL of winning the 2012 election.
I believe you are exactly right.
Agreed. Precisely why the Dems, RINOs and the MSM want him to get the nomination.
Perhaps. But the RINOs must understand that this is not business as usual like the last 50 years. Too much at stake to allow them to continue to pull their nonsense. They either get on the train, or they will simply be run over. There is no option for them.
I appreciate you laying out your thoughts, it’s not bad at all reasoning and I like your honesty in doing it. No one has a crystal ball.
I will give you a more difficult question you can think about. When will she officially announce a candidacy ? and what about her relationship/employment at FNC relating to it? How does that help her win the nomination, versus hurt her or keep her out due to legal problems?
I think you’re pretty close.
As a non-candidate (presently), Palin is going places most GOPers would fear to tread. Massachusetts. Pennsylvania. New York. Maryland. CONNECTICUT.
When she’s officially a candidate, she can then focus on the battlegrounds, the primary states...etc. But now...she can and I think is “campaigning” in a very non-traditional traditional sense. She’s meeting and greeting...focusing on retail politicking...but in the bluest of the blue states.
A good ‘present analysis’ in which we are witnessing the next Reagan and just as RR, Palin’s real advantage is her strong principled foundation, faith and positive outlook.
She will deploy a lot of RR’s thinking in the most unconventional campaign in the US in a century.
Has Palin said this yet, “Recession is when your neighbor loses his job. Depression is when you lose yours. And recovery is when Jimmy Carter loses his.”
— Ronald Reagan
I actually think the blue state bit was an accident of geography: it’s pretty hard to have a bus tour in any area near NH that isn’t blue-state heavy. The fearlessness on her part was that she went ahead with it anyway.
There won’t be so much blue state touring as she circles IA and SC on her next two trips.
We know Romney’s your man—so you hope Palin doesn’t run.
Some of it is...but Connecticut?
She can afford to invest time in these blue, blue states now since she’s not a candidate...and her interactions could help pay dividends when she is one. Not that she’ll win Connecticut of course, but she wouldn’t lose quite as bad there. ;)
But she didn’t make any stops in CT.
Yes she did. :)
“Former Republican vice presidential candidate and ex-Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin stopped in Cromwell Wednesday afternoon at exit 21 on 372, not far from Willowbrook Spirit Shoppe, according to Tony Gagnon, a local resident.”
It was a complete surprise,” Gagnon said. “It was wonderful. Whenever you see a celebrity or politician, it’s always interesting to meet them.”Gagnon described Palin as “very down to earth and gracious.” He had been on his way to Lowes when he got off the exit and saw her bus, he said.”
She was just standing in the parking talking to people and handing out pocket constitutions,” Gagnon said.
Palin was stopping traffic, according to Gagnon, who said that during her brief stay while her bus marked “We the people” and “One nation” gased up people were cycling in and out to meet her.
”She is a very impressive individual,” Gagnon said.”
http://middletownpress.com/articles/2011/06/02/news/doc4de7f9711206b157371048.txt
Ha—that’s my state and I missed it!
Doc, there is a reasonable chance that the NH winner could be someone other than Mitt. Many McCain voters in western part of state are anti-Romney, anti-Palin. Opens the door there for another horse.
Today in New Hampshire:
Rudy Giuliani, Meeting with New Hampshire Union-Leader publisher Joe McQuaid
Jon Huntsman: Belknap County Republicans’ “Lincoln Day” cruise, Lake Winnepesaukee, N.H.
Trouble for Mitt. Doc, good luck in Dubuque.
:)
Well I’m in Tennessee... and I doubt, sadly, that she’ll be steering the bus my way. :(
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