It means that there are a lot of people with a lot of money at stake who still strongly feel that Pres. Obama is going to get reelected.
Foreign money trying to influence election.
If they cut their losses now, they lose. Lot of money on buys in September when Obama was at 70-80 in September.
I’m guessing, they are holding out hope for an Obama comeback. Just like the stock market. But eventually they’ll have to cut their losses.
Most of the people involved are Europeans and foreigners who probably know very little about Romney, other than he’s not Obama.
Two things, I believe.
1. Pump and dump. By pumping Obama, it influences people to buy Obama shares. The smart money should be dumping it l, in the not far off future.
2. It mâles Obama look stronger than he is in reality, causing people to support him when they might not normally.
Intrade is purely controlled by market forces: meaning every time someone takes a bet on one particular outcome, it shifts the odds fractionally in the opposite direction. The more that is bet, the more the odds shift.
i.e. if Obama is priced at 61% and I place a large amount of money on him to win, his odds will then shift to 60.9 or 60.8%. If someone else then follows suit, they’ll shift further. As soon as someone else bets the other way, they shift back in the opposite direction. The current price thus reflects what those who are gambling on the site consider to be good value for money.
The idea is that every market will thus ‘find its own level’ - if you placed a contract on the site listing Obama at 20%, say, it’d be snapped up in seconds and disappear - even I’d take it (and I think Romney will win) as I could simply lay the bet off by backing Romney at 40% and make a guaranteed profit either way.
More traditional bookmakers simply offer odds: currently 4/11 Obama and 2/1 Romney in the UK, where I’m based right now.
Foreigners and stimulus monopoly money.
I see Intrade now a psyop, Scholastic ‘presidential election’ as Gattica, and all media as 1984.
WE are The Resistance.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, Intrade is not particularly prophetic (except, arguably, a day or two before voting day). The few really professional gamblers aren’t really betting on a particular outcome, they are looking to buy-low and sell-high. Because there is not a huge amount of money in Intrade, it is also subject to manipulation by partisans. Finally, judging by the comments on Intrade forums, most gamblers are simply following simplistic, conventional wisdom.
I keep an eye on Intrade daily and I can flat out state that every single time Obama drops to or below 60, heavy buying steps in and magically the share price moves back up above 60.
Intrade had the Patriots being the Giants in both Super Bowls
Go short Obama! 200% leveraged to the max!
I think conservatives are more likely to invest than gamble.
Liberals the reverse
Next week should be a much different story.
Basically, if Obama wins, we will all take it in the shorts.
So, why not hedge that by winning some money if Obama wins.
Put 5 sawbucks on Mitt and let it ride.
Intrade is a much thinner market than let’s say Wall Street. What that means is whereas it will take several million dollars to move a stock like MSFT or Apple a few pennies, half a million can move Intrade numbers by several percentage points. If a freeper is willing to bet $2 million on Romney, the numbers would change significantly.
Zero has as about much chance in Alaska as a Used Jesus Salesman..
Even the women here are packin heat..
Until about a week out Intrade is a gambling site. It is being churned.