sure glad we didn't close the border or shutdown flights.. especially with that 2-3 week gestation period 34 posted on Sep 09, 2014 05:39 PM by sten (fighting tyranny never goes out of style)
Posted on 08/10/2014 12:46:23 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe
I have spent a little time compiling links to threads about the Ebola outbreak in the interest of having all the links in one thread for future reference.
Please add links to new threads and articles of interest as the situation develops.
Thank You all for you participation.
Joe,
See:
Ebola outbreak: Death toll from West Africa outbreak jumps to at least 2,296, WHO says, amid fears Liberia’s figures may send toll higher
Posted 10 Sep 2014, 6:34am
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-10/ebola-death-toll-rises-/5732250
The death toll from the worst Ebola outbreak in history has jumped by almost 200 in a single day to at least 2,296, the World Health Organisation says, warning the toll is already likely to be higher.
The WHO said it had recorded 4,293 cases in five West African countries as of September 6.
It still did not have new figures for Liberia, the worst-affected country, suggesting the true toll is already much higher.
The WHO said it expects thousands of new cases in Liberia in the next three weeks.
The infection casualty to fatalities rate (CFR) has jumped with the latest WHO report. 2296/4293 = 53.5% fatality rate despite a huge jump in the number infected.
Ebola deaths are rising faster than Ebola infections, and infections are going exponential, _without_ Ebola case reporting from Liberia.
I think the lack of data from Liberia means we have hit a critical mass of fomite surface contamination in Liberia’s urban public and private spaces such that there is little difference that and true airborne Ebola transmission for people lacking BHL-4 PPE.
May Almighty God help those people.
sure glad we didn't close the border or shutdown flights.. especially with that 2-3 week gestation period 34 posted on Sep 09, 2014 05:39 PM by sten (fighting tyranny never goes out of style)
Well that’s just peachy. Thanks for posting though.
The trend doesn’t look good. Do you have a link to the site?
BS is right. I have seen their isolation protocol first hand, and it wasn’t followed 100% for the antibiotic resistant disease.
I have not doubt that people who have been treating Ebola patients in past outbreaks, and those who have been working in level 4 labs know the protocol and don’t cut corners. That doesn’t mean that any Tom Dick and Mary at the local hospital will be able to do it.
Tired people and novices can make mistakes, and there are sufficient docs and medical people getting it, so that some determination needs to be made as to why this is happening.
Since the first symptoms resemble the flu, it’s entirely possible that a patient could come to the emergency room, and infect others before the diagnosis is made. Brantly indicated that he felt his exposure was not inside the isolation area, but elsewhere in the hospital as he reviewed ER patients for potential diagnosis.
Yet another false-negative followed by release, then presenting with symptoms after wandering around infecting who knows how many others.
Ilori said, “I was told that a student of the OAU who had contact with the doctor who died of the Ebola virus in Port Harcourt walked into the health centre when she was sick.
“She was said to have told doctors at the health centre that she had contact with the Port Harcourt doctor and was put under surveillance but she said she tested negative that time.
“Now she returned to the OAU to continue with her studies and was sick. She was said to have walked to the health centre and told them everything about her contact with the doctor.
“Her blood sample has been taken for another test in Lagos and we are awaiting the result. We pray she is not positive but she has been isolated at the health centre.”
Another source for tracking the numbers => http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_epidemic_in_West_Africa#mediaviewer/File:2014_Ebola_virus_epidemic_in_West_Africa.png
Thanks for the wiki link. Nice compilation. Note that all the case data there is derived from the same WHO source we post here.
Thanks for the wiki link. Nice compilation. Note that all the case data there is derived from the same WHO source we post here.
if you contact your various govt types, tell them to type this into their browser:
imgur.com/9UPvigZ
it'll work and is the shortest link without using a pass thru site. speak very clearly and be ready with phonetic alphabet.. and remember it's CASE SENSITIVE
we someone get this info on the desk of all governors ... especially those in states with high taxi usage (ie: NY, Il., Washdc, Boston, etc)
i wouldn't be ringing the bell if that vertical line didn't freak the crap outta me. the next 2-4 weeks will determine how bad this gets. unfortunately, it's not showing any signs of burning itself out.
>>May Almighty God help those people.
Joe,
That isn’t the worst of it.
The 200 death spike yesterday (9-9-2014) was from when the Ebola fomite “contamination cross over point.” That cross over happened ~16 August 2014 in Sierra Leone, West Africa, because that is where the death data came from.
I define the “fomite contamination cross over point” as the time when gross Ebola fomite contamination is such that anyone who went out in public with out BHL-4 P.P.E. and strict decontamination became Ebola fomite contaminated and then brought fomite contamination home to their private dwelling.
In so many words, this “Fomite contamination cross over point” has the same RO infection rate in densly populated areas an airbore pathogine
The burning datum for the arrival of “contamination cross over” would be Ebola infection outbreaks with high level government officials, like senior government ministers, or their immediate family in the Ebola affected countries.
And the flame for that datum just arrived, See —
Written by Rodney D. Sieh, rodney.sieh@frontpageafricaonline.com
Published: 10 September 2014
http://frontpageafricaonline.com/index.php/news/2974-ebola-hits-seat-of-liberian-presidency-1-dead-1-quarantined
Monrovia - Liberia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which is also the seat of the Liberian presidency, has been hit by the deadly Ebola virus, FrontPageAfrica has learned.
On Monday, the Administrative Assistant to Foreign Minister Augustine Ngafuan reportedly died from what sources say is a suspected case of the deadly virus. Her husband, a staffer in the office of President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, is currently under quarantine.
FrontPageAfrica is withholding the names of the officials because the government has not officially notified the public about the cases, so close to the Liberian presidency. Minister Ngafuan’s office is two floors below the floor now being used as the President’s office.
The wife of the President’s office staffer reportedly died on Monday and may have gotten the virus from a sister, who had previously died. A praying woman who reportedly had sessions and laid hands on the sister of the deceased Administrative Assistant, has also died.
Sources within the Executive Mansion informed FrontPageAfrica Wednesday that both the deceased Administrative Assistant in Minister Ngafuan’s office and her husband had been told not to return to the office until after 21 days.
“ They had not been coming to work for more than 21 days now,” the source, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not clothed with the authority to speak on the matter.
Minister Ngafuan is currently in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia attending an Emergency Meeting of the African Union’s Executive Council on the Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak. Attempts to reach the minister and his press aide have been unsuccessful. The AU members are recommending the urgent lifting of all travel bans imposed on countries affected by the Ebola outbreak in Africa.
[snip]
At least 160 health workers have been infected with the virus and 79 have died, in a nation that counted a paltry single doctor per 100,000 inhabitants at its onset. Landgren pointed out that the challenge also goes beyond the medical response.
“The enormous task of addressing Ebola has revealed persistent and profound institutional weaknesses, including in the security sector,” she said. “As the demands pile on, the police face monumental challenges in planning and implementing large scale operations.”
From the Comment section:
Jay Wion · Top Commenter · Works at NPRC
“...So, according to our LANS news confidential sources within the presidency, the person who died in the office of the Foreign Minister on Mionday is Mrs. Sharon Washington whose husband is J. Wesley Washington, a member of the Executive Mansion Presidential Press staff. LANS News is to air this story and the latest news on Ebola with its near 2300 deaths in West Africa and Liberia accounting for nearly half of all Ebola deaths in the next two hours.”
Liberia was worse, sooner than Sierra Leone.
Ebola outbreaks with Liberian government senior ministers and senior foriegn health care officials who have been visiting them in the late August to early September period will be showing up over the next 10 to 14 days.
Odds are better than even the Centers for Disease Control Director Tom Friedman will be among them.
We’ll see how much longer the AU, WHO, and UN vocal resistance to serious quarantine lasts.
“The enormous task of addressing Ebola has revealed persistent and profound institutional weaknesses, including in the security sector,” she said. “As the demands pile on, the police face monumental challenges in planning and implementing large scale operations.”
Yeah, no kidding. The countries’ executives, administrators and families are above the rules, Sawyer with ten times the status and perks.
President Sirleaf grasps that Ebola has become an existential crises for Liberia but maybe the tipping point has already occurred. Looking at the incomplete data from Liberia which is die enough, it is clear that they are totally swamped. Obama’s promise of a high tech 25 bed field hospital is futile gesture in light of the phantom patients that keep streaming from hiding places in search of medical help. How does one tracking these moving mini-hot zones in a crowded mobile urban environment?
Do you see any sign of a competent supply train in place at this time? As per your numbers and analysis, and that of others, if a supply bridgehead is established next week, it’s too little, too late, IMO.
I may begin posting more this evening. We’ll see how my gardening and preserving go this afternoon. The whole topic is just entirely depressing.
Air Marshal stabbing story gets stranger.
Nigeria: No evidence US air marshal attacked in Lagos
2014-09-10 15:53
Lagos - Nigeria’s aviation authorities on Wednesday said there was no evidence for the US claim that one of its air marshals was attacked as he tried to board a flight in Lagos.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) said on Monday that the marshal, who was on duty, was attacked with a syringe on Sunday and was undergoing treatment in Houston, Texas.
A spokesperson for the federal airports authority of Nigeria (FAAN), Yakubu Dati, said in a statement that officials were aware of the reports and had been in contact with US diplomats.
A security team from the US mission in Nigeria had reviewed security camera footage from the Lagos airport of the air marshal, he said.
But he added: “Preliminary observation from the CCTV [closed-circuit television] footage did not show evidence of such [an] occurrence.”
A US embassy spokesperson in Nigeria declined to comment when asked by AFP about the footage, and referred to an earlier statement by US state department deputy spokesperson Marie Harf.
Harf told reporters in Washington on Monday: “We can confirm reports that an unknown assailant injected a substance into the arm of a US federal air marshal at the airport in Lagos, Nigeria.”
US law enforcement agencies were collaborating with their Nigerian counterparts to investigate the incident, she added. The FBI said the marshal was not in danger.
The incident raised fears the syringe could have carried some form of the Ebola virus because Nigeria is one of the West African countries where the deadly epidemic has spread.
Eight people have been killed and dozens infected with the fever in the current outbreak, which has killed nearly 2 300 in three other West African states.
this link: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/5-september-2014-en.pdf?ua=1
was the original WHO report from sept 5th. it shows 3967 cases and 2105 deaths.
this was 5 days since the prior report.
the next update was the next day, sept 6th:
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/132834/1/roadmapupdate8sept14_eng.pdf?ua=1
this shows 4293 cases and 2296 deaths
this lead to a chart as seen here: http://i.imgur.com/9UPvigZ.png
today i've noticed someone modified the wiki data. instead of data point #33 being on sept 5th... they changed it to sept 3rd, contrary to the actual pdf files. by doing this it changed the spike drastically
looks like the spin doctors are on the case.
MAKE COPIES OF ALL DATA FILES
I bet this development is behind the acknowledgement that possibly more than 4 are/have been treated for ebola in this country and that they won’t tell us who, where or how many.
There was a freeper on one of the threads yesterday who speculated just this. Turns out, I’d bet they were right.
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