Posted on 09/30/2014 7:40:47 PM PDT by UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide
Here is the math:
Ebola had infected about 4000 known cases by 2014-09-16.
Incubation up to 21 days.
Rate of new infections during incubation period: R2.0 (i.e. roughly doubling)
Population of earth: ~7.2 billion
Number of doublings from initial ~4000 to ~8 billion: 21
21 X 21 days = 441 days from September 16, 2014 = December 1, 2015
CDC considers just being within 3 feet of an Ebola patient for an extended period of time to be a risk factor, albeit a low risk factor. 3 feet is about how far micro droplets of moisture can travel when you exhale out of your mouth. Aka air transmissible in droplets, but not truly airborne.
WHO says not infectious before symptoms. Plenty of scientists disagree with respect to this strain. I provided one link.
Just search for "Ebola in semen breast milk after recovery" for tons of links about that - some credible, some admittedly junk.
Final note: At this point, I have as much faith in the WHO as I do the UN.
Bingo.
Oh I agree. Way more complex than that. But I also think this outbreak may - MAY - be a lot worse than the authorities are saying. You know, that whole “avoid a panic” thing.
I could care less what links you want to provide. I’ve done my own research from multiple research sites concerning past outbreaks and the known facts concerning this outbreak and that information was provided by those on the front lines of this outbreak who have infinitely more credibility than you could ever possibly hope to possess.
Your opinion means jack to me. The opinions of those who have dome much more research minus the alarmist rhetoric along with reason leads me to significantly different conclusions than those you have posted on this forum.
A link to this thread has been posted on the Ebola Surveillance Thread
It’s not unusual for the CDC to own patents for vaccines. They do not own a right to all invention related to Ebola. There are numerous existing patents for Ebola prophylaxis and treatments, with both private organizations and public agencies as the patent holders.
Ok. But I do tend to take the CDC seriously. Hey, if you choose not to, your choice.
Your input isn’t pointless. There’s a place for skeptics. It’s what keeps the bean counters sane when they see patterns go skittering off into the upper atmosphere.
I remember you commenting to me that this was something that we wouldn’t have to necessarily worry about here. I can’t believe how fast it got here.
That we haven’t had any infections in Italy or France, for example.
Anyway, keep making your points. What makes this forum great is that every conjecture is challenged. Every one.
The irony of your handle . . .
Anyway, keep at it.
BTW that wasn’t snark. If you don’t think the CDC is credible, fine. Just like I don’t think the WHO is credible. If your personal experience and knowledge shows they aren’t, I just hope you are right and they are wrong.
The point I was making when I previously stated that we wouldn’t have to obsess over if and when an Ebola patient arrived here was more to the point of different cultures and different methods of “handling” such an outbreak in the U.S.
Considering the differences, a widespread outbreak is much less likely (note I never stated no chance) than what you have in third world countries and that is pretty easy to understand.
This simple fact of awareness and overall education make the comparisons significantly uneven, not to mention the obvious difference in culture and level of technology.
That being said, anything can happen, and there is still a distinct, yet hopefully small, chance that this strain could mutate into an airborne virus that retains the bulk of its potency concerning humans, and if that does ever come to pass, then all bets are off.
I’ve been fortunate enough to be able to discuss this current outbreak with many researchers here in Southern California, due to the nature of my profession, and I’ve been able to gather a lot of information that has kept me on an even keel concerning the situation.
I’m an Engineer who just so happens to have many customers in the area that include Universities and research institutes who have “intimate” knowledge on the subject, and I get the impression that their knowledge concerning Ebola and this outbreak, which is infinitely more in depth than I could possibly accumulate, is trustworthy and useful.
I hope you’re right. I’d describe myself as by no means panicked but definitely concerned. One thing, not all of the US is first world anymore. There are pockets in many cities that are straight out of the third world, crowded unsanitary conditions, ignorant people fearful of doctors and all. It can get a foothold. Recent immigrants primarily, imho.
I found an article that summarized the book nicely, but there is a problem with the theory. At the time that the book came to print, the research on the mass graves from Black Death was sketchy at best.
Five years later a very serious project was set up to hunt for Plague in multiple different regions across the world. And they found it.
It is conclusive that Black Death was Plague.
HOWEVER, what I found interesting were the reasons that the authors thought it was Ebola (or something like that). The Black Death did not move like Plague. It didn’t have all of the same characteristics of the Plague that we know today.
And there’s a reason for that. There were three different strains of Plague that caused the epidemic. Slight genetic variations exist between those three strains and what we have now.
The bad part is that the Black Death did behave, in many ways, like Ebola as it moved through a population. (Rates of transmission, length of the infectious stage, some of the symptoms were similar to some hemorrhagic fevers, etc)
From what I’ve read, Ebola has a very good chance of following the patterns of the Black Death.
This sentence is a non-sequitur if the previous sentence is anywhere near accurate.
Ping
Ha! LOL
Well stated..and to the point.
In a world with ebola spreading somehow cancer just doesn’t seem that scary anymore.
Cancer runs in my family and I’ve had quite a few scares. Ijust had oral surgery to remove suspect tissue from my tongue(benign yay!)
This ebola seems far scarier.
Maybe because cancer isn’t contageous
What makes you think they’re not?
Bill Gates said he’d like to be reincarnated as a virus, so he could reduce earth’s population to 500 million.
...and then again, it may not.
There is a great difference in the Western populations, where people know about germs, and tribal peoples in Africa.
I hate to break it to you, but civilization is only
a thin verneer over that difference, as we will find
out in the coming months and years.
I am not sure, at this point, who you are going to believe.
But beside WHO, the CDC, USAMRID, and just about everyone else reports that it is not communicable UNTIL the person shows symptoms.
I am just asking that people are careful about not causing unnecessary fear.
I am urging everyone reading this to do your OWN research. Do not rely on one link on a web site to come to your conclusions.
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