Posted on 11/04/2015 2:43:52 PM PST by conservativejoy
Lot of fanfare about this among the politerati on Twitter (politertwitterati?), who’ve waited four months for hard evidence that Trumpmanias begun to cool. One national poll showing Carson ahead of Trump can be dismissed as a fluke; two showing Carson ahead are interesting, but not quite convincing. An average of four polls showing Carson in the lead, though, is officially fodder for 'trend!' storylines.
What a long, strange trip its been.
Youve got at least three reasons to shrug at that if you’re a Trump fan. One: Carsons not going to be the nominee. He might win Iowa but even that seems hard to believe given what a smart, tight ship Ted Cruzs campaign is running. It could be that Trump has reached his ceiling of support but thats enough to win some of the early states if his competition divides the rest of the electorate among themselves evenly enough.
Two: Matt Bevins shocking landslide last night after trailing in the polls for months gives you a reason (maybe not a compelling reason, but a reason) to think that polls are chronically underestimating outsider candidates like him and Trump. None other than the head of the DGA credited 'Trumpmania' with Bevins surprising win. It may be that both in Kentucky and nationally, theres a critical mass of right leaning 'silent majority' voters whom pollsters don’t expect to turn out on election night but then do, rendering all the polls of 'likely voters' meaningless. The question is, if the extent of Trump’s support is being underestimated, might the extent of Carson’s support be underestimated too?
Three: When push comes to shove, the national polls dont matter. Theyre interesting as a barometer of Republican sentiment generally, but only the state polls mean anything as predictors of individual caucuses and primaries. And Trumps lead in New Hampshire, his strongest early state, is steady as she goes.
Or is it?
The survey of 400 likely [NH] GOP primary voters, conducted Thursday through Sunday, puts Trump at the top with 18 percent support. Carson is on his heels at 16 percent , within the poll’s 4.9 percent margin of error.
Florida Sen. Rubios support more than quintupled, from 2 percent to 11 percent, while New Jersey Gov. Christies support rose from 2 percent to 8 percent. Both candidates are also seeing big jumps in their favorability ratings.
'Underneath there has been some movement,' Koczela said. 'Both Marco Rubio and Chris Christie were perceived as doing well in the debate and have seen their numbers climb substantially from where they were in September.'
'There’s considerable potential now for Rubio to start to clinch the deal,' Scala said, adding that the poll shows Rubio getting high marks from both traditional and tea party-type conservatives.
Rubios favorable rating in the poll jumped 10 points since September to 56 percent. Chris Christies favorable rating jumped 12 points to 51 percent. Trump: Down three points, now sitting on an even 42/42 split. Thats a bad number for his big state. When Republicans were asked who they thought won the debate last week, Rubio also won that handily 27 percent versus 20 percent for Cruz and 13 percent for Christie. Trump finished with just seven percent, tied with Carly Fiorina. But Trump fans dont have to sweat this poll too much either. For one thing, this data bodes well for him:
New Hampshirites are trending towards revolution. Rubio, for all his gifts, is every inch a Bush/McCain politician. He’s not the guy youd bet on when the electorates in 'burn it all down' mode. Beyond that, though, theres good reason to think this polls an outlier. Eighteen percent is the lowest level of support detected for Trump in New Hampshire in three months. The latest Monmouth poll, which was taken over the same post-debate period as this one (and was also a poll of likely voters), had him comfortably ahead of Carson by 10 points at 26 percent. Other recent (but pre-debate) polls have had him at 28 and even 38 percent. And the last WBUR poll in September also had him a bit lower than most other polls did at the time, suggesting some persistent difference in their methodology. Until we see a dent to his polling average in NH, which has him 14 points ahead of the field, its probably best to treat this as noise.
There are a few things that just don’t seem right about Dr. Carson. His “friendship” with Farrakan, his association with Sharpton to name two. I would hate to vote for him and, if elected, he turn out to be not what we thought. I’m also still unsure about Trump. At this point Cruz seems like the only one who I can trust to do what he says.
I’ve noticed several conservative sites have been giving links to Christian books sites for a book entitled “The Four Major Cults”. They are, Christian Science, Mormonism, Jehovah’s Witnesses and Seventh Day Adventists.
Well, they’re entitled to their opinion; as are you.
Actually, I believe Islam is more correctly called a “cult”.
It's easy to look good against someone who is incapable of putting up a fight. Jeb had nothing to come back at Rubio with after his first weak punch. If Rubio tries to trade haymakers with Trump, I think we'll see that Rubio has a glass jaw.
BS meter overload.
What defines a cult is their teaching concerning Christ. All cults diminish Jesus in some way. Jehovah’s Witnesses and SDA’s teach that Jesus and Michael the Archangel are the same.
BS
“BS meter pegged at maximum.”
Considering how well the “polls” projected this week’s under-reported election results...
Hope the graphic has showed up on this thread by now.
I no longer trust any polls.
Ain’t that the truth...
Trump up and leading in what ever polls, Good polls...
Trump trailing Carson, or any other candidate , Polls are fake, a conspiracy against Trump, bad polls ran by liberals.
Trump had Bush on the run long before Rubio got into the fray...
The problem with that line of thinking maybe Trump or whomever you like has never had the support you think they have DUE TO POLLS.
Yep, just like Walker was going to get the nod a couple months ago.
Well who the hell are you for? There are not many possibilities.
Look at my tag line, I’m backing the conservative in this race. There’s plenty of campaigning left - Trump has yet to sew the nod up.
After Walker left, I really don’t have a favorite. I will vote for whoever gets the nomination just like the last 8 presidential elections. I guess my numbers are 3 wins (1988, 2000 and 2004) and 4 loss’ (1992, 1996, 2008 and 2012). Hopefully we can even it up in 2016.
Who told you that. I read a lot about SDA in Bible School, and I never found anything like that. In fact, they do teach about Jesus, and I couldn’t find anything about them diminishing Jesus anywhere in their prepared statements.
Maybe one of their churches taught that .. but it’s not anywhere in the founding documents.
So, I don’t know where you got your information .. but maybe you better do some more research .. because it appears to be way to far off target to be real.
And, I still do not believe SDA is a cult. In order to define it as a cult, there are many, many criteria that the SDA does not do .. so therefore, they cannot be classified as a “cult”.
If he is an 'outsider', I would expect to see support for him.
I see many people saying nice things about him, but no one saying they want him to be President.
I remember you from the Palin threads in 2010, you’re good people. Sorry, if I was curt, but there’s plenty of primary left, may the best person win the nod.
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