Posted on 02/10/2016 8:13:23 AM PST by conservativejoy
Since the modern primary system kicked in back in 76, no Republican has won without taking Iowa or New Hampshire. Since Cruz took Iowa and Trump was expected to take New Hampshire, that put Rubio in a difficult position.
However, Rubio's team had an answer for that: 3rd in IA, 2nd in NH and 1st in SC. It hadn't been done that way on the Republican side, but that did seem like a plausible path to the nomination.
Unfortunately, Rubio's 5th place finish in NH means both Jeb and Kasich will stay in and split the establishment vote. It also means Rubio will probably be relegated to 3rd place in SC.
Keep in mind that Trump is in first in almost every state and he has a relatively solid base of support. He can definitely be beaten, but that is unlikely to happen unless the race narrows down to two candidates.
Cruz's win in IA, his deep pockets and his 2nd place national standing means he's definitely in through March.
The establishment lane can't consolidate soon enough to make an impact and even if it does, it's doubtful that any of them could beat Trump 1-on-1 in a rabidly anti-establishment year.
So, either the vote will consolidate around Cruz who can beat Trump 1-on-1 or all these candidates who can't win will bleed support from Cruz and practically guarantee a Trump win.
PS: It is possible that enough delegates might be bled off of Trump and Cruz to throw the race into a brokered convention, but once the GOP gets to that point it's between a rock and a hard place. I'm not a supporter of Donald Trump, but if he has the most delegates, he DESERVES to be the nominee. If the establishment were to rob Trump of the nomination at the convention, the backlash would be so enormous that it would practically guarantee a loss to the Democrats no matter whom the GOP selected as a nominee.
So, if Donald Trump is your guy, vote for him, but if you want someone other than Trump, it seems likely that your only realistic option at this point is Ted Cruz.
not sure what point you are trying to make here, yes you can win a state with 30 or 40% of a vote when your vote is factured, but realistically Trump and Cruz probably combine on their best days to no more than 55-60% of the electorate, meaning, that if its a 3 way race, the other guys going to get 40-45 % of the vote at least...
If Trump and Cruz fragment that 55-60% of the vote 40/20 then guess what? They both lose more often than either of them win. As long as both are viable, and neither wins any state by 50% solo, the idea that the establishment is dead is a bit premature.
This is politics people, Last Saturday Afternoon Rubio was looking like the sure fire Establishment candidate, and polling at 18%, by tuesday he got 10% and lost to Bush. There is a lot of field left to play, and while I am glad the way the momentum is going... it is foolish to write off the establishment completely after 2 contests.
Donald is a spectacular business man.
He knows how to run this country and get things done.
HE’S AN AMERICAN who loves his country
Cruz? The more I read of his background and what his colleagues thought of him, the less I trust him.
Do you think it’s possible that Trump has held his fire on Rubio because he is planning to choose him as his running mate? I know his enthusiasts might flame me for asking the question, but if you are Trump, doesn’t it make sense?
Trump, having already secured the nomination at that point, would in a single move pull in the Rubio supporters, ease the establishment’s concerns a little, position Florida in the general election, and immediately blunt the racism argument... “what do you mean I am racist? I just chose the guy who will be the first Latino vice president. Latinos love me!” It would help him assure the pro-lifers as well. The only hitch is immigration, but I have no doubt he will bank to center on that when convenient to him in any case. He seems to have no scruples about such reversals, and anyway if I am not mistaken his son already has hinted that after the wall is underway and the touch-back process has begun, there would be a compromise for background-checked folks to return. He has left himself latitude to make their return a guest-worker program while they wait for normal citizenship eligibility. Then all he has to do is have those workers pay a fee and maybe freeze a few drug-lord’s assets and he can say “Mexico” is paying for the wall. Everyone is happy except his supporters on these boards who believed his art of the deal crap (lie and hyperbolize before the negotiation to drive the final compromise to your real position) was for everyone else except them.
I am only half-serious at this point - the idea having just popped into my head - but I did think it strange that Trump hasn’t double-tapped Rubio while he was on the ground. I could see him sort of saying, “hey, he’s a talented guy... not quite ready for president, but a good VP.” I think Trump might actually be contemplating this.
Just for full disclosure, I do not support Trump. I prefer Ted Cruz, but would probably hold my nose and vote for any of the remaining candidates except Trump. I just can’t pull the lever for him. I appreciate the dents he has put in the establishment and political correctness, but I can’t get past his utterly liberal track record, his big-government tendencies, his twitter-tough-guy pompousness, and the transparent condescension toward people of faith. All that said, he is still interesting to watch, and I think he is keeping his options open on Rubio.
“A vote for anyone but Cruz is now a vote for Trump.”
Go Trump Go.
Do you realize how flat out retarded that makes you sound?
Candidates, by law, are constrained from having ANY control over PACs. So you are actually upset that Ted Cruz is NOT violating federal election laws?!?
That’s false. Trump shut down “his” Super PACs. Cruz could end the anonymous money laundering donations to the Super PAC supporting his campaign with one phone call. That he does not shows he approves of this Washington Cartel tactic.
Super PACs are coordinated with the campaigns until they are officially formed. These are not rogue operations but have the stamp of approval of Team Cruz.
I won’t be calling you retarded but I will say there is nothing principled or conservative about the conduct of Ted Cruz’s campaign for POTUS. He’s run a nasty and viscous campaign in the finest traditions of the Washington Cartel.
My point is Trump can win with 30%-40%. Romney did it and that was a smaller field than this year.
A vote for anyone but Cruz is now a vote for Trump.
Thank God!!
“Trump shut down “his†Super PACs.”
I thought Trump was “self-funding” and didn’t have any “Super PACS”, lol.
“Super PACs are coordinated with the campaigns until they are officially formed.”
And if they coordinate AFTER they are formed, it violates federal election law, and that is where we are at right now, so you are still advocating that Cruz should violate federal election law.
Very good reply!
After SC it should be a two man race assuming one of the establishment candidates doesn’t consolidate the establishment vote there. Which doesn’t look likely.
I thought Trump was “self-funding” and didn’t have any “Super PACS”, lol.
And if they coordinate AFTER they are formed, it violates federal election law, and that is where we are at right now, so you are still advocating that Cruz should violate federal election law.
Trump shut down the Super PACs that were going to form to support him.
Cruz could have specified no money laundered donations when this Super PAC was forming. He still could shut it down with one phone call. That would not be illegal coordination. That he did/does not shows he has no principle. What this dirty money does show is the win at all costs Washington Beltway Cartel careerism of Ted Cruz.
No, it’s not yet a two person race.
Christie is dropping out. Rubio may (maybe) be able to recover from his terrible debate. Jeb has a chance to consolidate the establishment vote. Kasich has the same establishment opportunity. Cruz and Trump certainly have an advantage, but it’s nowhere near settled that one of them will win.
I think you overestimate Rubio’s chances... after Saturday’s debate, he’s basically become a punchline... Can one recover from a punchline? Sure, if you are a punchline early enough in the process and given enough time... 19 days isn’t a whole lot of time.
Rubio literally shot himself in the head last Saturday, it truly was spectacular to see someone do that, no I’m not speaking hyperbole, it was literally a political Bud Dwyer moment. The exchange with Christie will be studied by political science students for decades hence.
So far as I know no new SC polls have come out since then, but I just don’t see how Rubio sees more than 10% or so again. He had his moment and chance coming out of IA, and he just blew it.
I have to disagree, Rubio is done... see my previous post on that one...
So please people, just vote for Trump.
“Cruz could have specified no money laundered donations when this Super PAC was forming.”
Well since money laundering is illegal there aren’t any “money laundered donations”, so you have nothing to worry about.
That is, unless you understand that PAC money isn’t money laundering and just like to accuse people of crimes with no evidence to try to score political points. You wouldn’t be doing that, would you?
You don’t know me, and I don’t know you. And, it’s hard to read tone of voice or intent into a typed post. But please take this at face value, with no malice or sarcasm, and no desire to start a flame war...
I have always thought that if I ran for political office, I would state my case, and let people know who I was. I am a rock-ribbed conservative Christian. Pro-life, pro-free market, anti-tax, small smaller smallest government.
Now, I don’t care if you are Planned Parenthood, CAIR, Gloria Steinham (sp?), or Hillary Clinton herself. I will take your money, look you in the eye, tell you “Thank you”, and not change my views. I’ll tell you that on the front end, and if you give me money, you know who you are supporting, and your money spends just as easily as the grass roots. I will NOT agree with you.
Now - I understand your point, that lots of money can sway folks. But what if we’ve finally found a candidate that can’t be bought?
By the way, I’m way old enough to understand naivete, and that sounds like a load of it. But what IF...?
A Trump/Rubio ticket would win. But not get my vote.
A Trump/Cruz ticket would also win and get my vote.
A Trump/Jon Doe ticket would win and not get my vote.
I so hope you are correct
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