Posted on 09/03/2009 2:13:39 AM PDT by theanchoragedailyruse
It is now reported: Brazil Champion in Swine Flu Deaths
Brazil's Health Ministry informed that 557 people have now died from swine flu in that country surpassing the US in the number of fatal victims of the AH1N1 virus and taking the first place from the United States.
As was reported in Brazil months back, and posted here and here.
Monday, June 29, 2009 The Mutating Virus: A/Sao Paulo/1454/2009(H1N1 Influenza A virus (A/Sao Paulo/1454/2009(H1N1))The mutating virus from Brazil that the WHO continues to deny is mutating.
That would make the production of the current vaccine, basically useless this fall. Posted by Tom at 4:40 AM
Some scientists have discounted the evidence on the newly found strain that according to scientists in Brazil, is a novel strain.
The CDC under the Obama administration continues to deny that the H1N1 virus has been mutating.
The H1N1 flu strain doesn't appear to be mutating as it makes its way through the Southern Hemisphere, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said today in a briefing.One of the biggest fears has been that the virus, which first appeared in April in the U.S. and Mexico and which people don't have any built-up immunity to, might mutate into an even more dangerous form. Health officials have been keeping a close watch on the Southern Hemisphere, which is in its winter season now, to see what form of the virus is likely to travel north as fall comes to the U.S. and the rest of the Northern Hemisphere.
What should cause concern is, the fact that the H1N1 virus jumped to another host by infecting Turkeys in Chile.
The question should be asked of the CDC and scientists who dispute the fact that the strain has jumped to new hosts and is mutating; why do they continue to deny the fact that the strain is getting stronger as indicated by the rise in deaths in Brazil?
Where is the evidence it is? CFR is lower in Brazil. First link shows that.
I’n not entirely sure, but my skeptiscism leads me to believe this might be some kind of political cover for our government’s faliure to make the required investment in order to have the right vaccine at the right time.
If national focus were put on this failure, it would surely be the death knell of the socialized health care agenda.
I think the free market would have responded to this virus much more effectively and efficiently than government did.
The death increase indicates the virus is getting stronger.
And the fact that it has jumped to a new host shows it is mutating.
The isn’t the first time it has jumped to a new host. The virus jumped from a human to infect pigs in Canada.
The fact that the virus is speading and mutating in countries that have mediocre health care will be impacted.
Stories in the U.K. have addressed the impact it could have on their health care system.
The number of deaths is increasing but is the CFR? Brazil is at 0.29%—lower than Argentina, New Zealand, Australia, Chile and other countries.
[taking the first place from the United States]
C’mon people, are we going to stand for that? USA..USA...USA /s
The point here is this: Aug 11th 200 deaths in Brazil..
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i7Qim4iCOYCp0YBeRiRWPOndeQJA
In less than a month double the deaths.
The areas in Brazil where the deaths are occuring are near Argentina.
It does’t matter what the numbers are. What is the case fatality rate?
Don’t be too patriotic, ObamaCare would definately put us first again and continue to sink the economy.
mmmmmm - Turkeys in Chile - please pass the salsa.......
The WHO doesn’t know for sure... The article would leave you to believe the data is accurate, but it isn’t.
The WHO sent out the request to countries to scale down on taking data related to the H1N1 virus.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/17/world/17flu.html?_r=1
It could be even higher in Brazil.
Thats it. They don’t know. CFR is difficult to calculate. But relative severity can be judged. Or could be. As this progresses, it will be harder and harder to test nearly enough people to get a handle on it. But right now I see no evidence Brazil has a greater CFR than other countries. Which leads to why the theory its mutating into a worse form there?
Because according to the known data the rate of deaths in Brazil has more than doubled and as I said, it could be even higher.
It won’t be less.
So common sense should dictate that since, there is a mutating strain + a more than doubling of known deaths in the past three weeks, the virus is not weakening.
And quite frankly, back in July, I believe the storyline was the mortality rate in Australia was in decline or lower?
http://ozswineflu.wordpress.com/2009/06/14/implied-mortality-rates-graphed/
That was June, things change..
http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/Content.aspx?id=79442
“It is a worrying factor that the mortality rate is picking up so quickly. If the virus were to progress beyond the winter season, it might go above the level of normal seasonal death. So far, indications are that the virus is … gaining strength, ” he said”
I’m sure BO will tell us so.
Flue viruses are constantly mutating into stronger and weaker strains. “Random walk” or “flip the coin” models can often replicate the process.
When a very weak strain appears, it tends to spread widely among a population since its victims don’t stay at home in the bed, but rather they circulate widely and infect others.
Conversely, when a very strong strain develops, it tends to spread slowly since its victims are bedridden or even dead before they can infect a lot of their friends and neighbors.
Therefore, the development of lethal flu viruses is normally a self-limiting process.
The deadliness of the 1918 virus is explained in large measure by (1) the conditions in crowded military barracks and hospitals where the normal self-limiting process was nullified and (2) secondary bacterial infections. Such conditions are unlikely to be repeated in today’s USA.
Therefore, even if a highly lethal variety of H1N1 develops in a relatively backward part of Brazil, it’s not likely to sweep the USA or other countries that have good health infrastructures.
Add to the above factors the availability of a vaccine that will be at least partially effective against H1N1, and then I think the probability becomes vanishingly small that a lethal “swine flu” pandemic will come to the USA during the 2009-2010 flu season.
But that is TINY compared to their population of 187 MILLION.
At that rate, we will have only 1057 deaths total in the US through the worst of our coming flu season.
That's a far cry from the 36,000 they say that die each year from normal flu, or the 90,000 they say will die here from H1N1.
For ALL of South America, through their winter season so far, (that's equivalent to March 3rd here), they have had only 4 deaths per million people.
This is a manufactured pandemic/crisis.
This administration is desperate for an emergency.
Clicking on the link resulted with this message: “The requested document does not exist on this server. “
Now, is this the same Brazil that Hussein just approved a $2B loan for—so they could drill for oil off their coast?
This virus is novel in that it has how many (pig, human, bird) hosts ?
It is not a matter of how lethal it is, it is how many ways this can be transmitted.
The deaths are an indication of the strength and it is getting stronger.
If in a small business half your people are out due to the flu, then it has a great impact on a already broken economy.
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