Skip to comments.Christie leads ["Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine 47-41 in PPP's final poll"]
Posted on 11/01/2009 8:19:45 PM PST by Jet Jaguar
Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine 47-41 in PPP's final poll of the New Jersey Governor's race, with Chris Daggett at 11%.
Corzine had pulled to within a point of Christie on our poll three weeks ago after trailing by as many as 14 points over the summer, but his momentum has stalled since then and Christie's built his lead back up to 4 points last week and now 6.
Christie's advantage is due largely to his support from independents and because he has Republicans more unified around him than the Democrats are around Corzine. Christie leads Corzine 52-29 with indies, as Daggett's support with that group has declined to 16%. Christie is getting 82% of Republicans to Corzine's 72% of Democrats.
As the campaign concludes it seems like Daggett's presence in the race has actually ended up hurting Corzine more than Christie, contrary to the earlier conventional wisdom. 45% of Daggett voters say the incumbent is their second choice to 36% for the challenger. Daggett's backers report having voted for Barack Obama by a 67-23 margin last year.
As is the case around the country this year enthusiasm is on the Republicans' side in New Jersey. 47% of Christie's supporters say they're 'very excited' about voting this fall to just 34% of Corzine's. The electorate is also likely to be more Republican leaning this year with likely voters reporting that they voted for Obama by a 54-43 margin in 2008, a spread narrower than the actual 57-42 result in the state.
In a finding symbolic of how unenthralled New Jersey voters were with their choices this year Christie is polling at 47% despite the fact that only 40% of voters think he made a strong case for why he should be elected Governor. Fully 27% of Christie's supporters don't feel he made the case for himself but Corzine's approval rating with that group of voters is only 3%, and those folks seem to have picked Christie as the lesser of two evils.
Corzine could still win with an exceptional Democratic turnout on Tuesday but there aren't a lot of factors in the race pointing to that as a strong possibility.
Full results here
47% of Christie voters ‘very excited’ about the election, only 34% of Corzine voters. Enthusiasm, enthusiasm:
I am unfamiliar with PPP, is this generally a dependably accurate polling outfit?
Piss Poor Pollers,,,,they’ve been around./s
With Hoffman’s big lead over the Dem. Owens in NY23 according to PPP, McDonnell easily winning Virginia and Christie now poised to win NJ, looks like we’ll get the trifecta on Tuesday and send the far left extremist Obama White House a huge message. The Blue Dogs in the House are going to feel the earthquake and Pelosi is going to see her healthcare bill go on the endangered species list.
New Jersey around 11
Maine around midnight
Virginia around 1 AM
Chapel Hill around 2 AM
Charlotte around 3 AM
More news tonight.
Monmouth University/Gannett says...
43% - Christie
42% - Crozine
8% - Daggett
THAT is the shock poll. NEW JERSEY going heavily for Republicans in Congress?
We’re taking all 3.
I think it’s too late for more money to make a difference.
New Jersey Governor - Corzine vs. Christie:
PPP Christie 47, Corzine 41, Daggett 11 Christie +6
Monmouth/Gannett Christie 43, Corzine 42, Daggett 8 Christie +1
Friday, October 30
Rasmussen Reports Christie 46, Corzine 43, Daggett 8 Christie +3
Stockton/Zogby Christie 39, Corzine 40, Daggett 14 Corzine +1
Neighborhood Research (R) Christie 42, Corzine 35, Daggett 8 Christie +7
Fairleigh Dickinson Christie 41, Corzine 39, Daggett 14 Christie +2
Pray for rain. A trifecta would run Obamacare right into the ditch and cripple the rest of the Obama agenda, perhaps fatally. Happy Happy Joy Joy!!
Don’t forget about the marriage preservation elections in Maine and Washington. If these succeed as well, it will truly be a bloodbath for the Dems (radicals.)
Need to do another round of charlotte calls in the morning, won’t be released tonight
27 minutes ago from web
So Christie has a 43-40 edge in the avg of the last 6 polls. Not bad. Combined with Corzine averaging around 40% and still having his huge unfavorables, it doesn’t look good for him. NJ is still hugely dem though, so I wouldn’t rule anything out.
Corzine losing in NJ, especially with Obama going all out for him would be a big deal. It’d be like if the GOP lost a Gov race in Utah or South Carolina with Bush going all out for the incumbent.
This also should put to rest the idea that the GOP needs to move to the center and court independents. You don’t do that. They come to you when they’ve had it with the other guy. Just like they did for Obama last year.
It was easy for him to get independents when Bush was in office. Lets see how he does when there’s 10% or higher unemployment on his watch, huge deficits and debt, surrender in Afghanistan, etc...
The same PPP poll has Obama at only 45% favorable in NJ. Not a good sign.
If all 3 races go to the right, that is a huge deal and I think it really impacts health care. I can’t imagine dems rushing to pass it after some defeats in 3 Obama states(w states he won and a district he won). The longer they wait the better chance of stopping it. Stop it and Obama is done until at least 2011.
Chrisite’s been running some smart ads taking on both Corzine and Daggett at the same time - “Two Liberals, Too Liberal for New Jersey” - seems to be cutting Daggett down......
"Keep it Going" indeed, you two criminals, as in "Buh Bye!"
Voter fraud will play a major role, especially in Essex and Hudson counties.
“Corzine could still win with an exceptional Democratic turnout” but with no Acorn votes and the cemeteries out of the running, Corzine is in Hurt City (that’s right next to Elizabeth).
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 2009 Marriage still close in Maine Maine voters narrowly favor Question 1, which would reverse the state's law legalizing same sex marriage. At 51-47 it's within the margin of error but there has been slight movement in support of the question since a PPP poll two weeks ago showed it knotted up at 48. The measure's fate could be determined by the age composition of the electorate on Tuesday. Senior citizens support it by a 59-40 margin while voters under 30 oppose it 51-48. Last year exit polls showed more voters under 30 turning out for the Presidential election than ones over 65 but we expect seniors to turn out at a much higher rate than younger voters this year, as is often the case in off year elections. If the electorate ends up being younger than we anticipate the fight could be even closer. Independents support the measure 52-46. There are slightly more Democrats (27%) in favor of it than there are Republicans (22%) opposed to it. Men support it by a 56-42 margin, women are opposed 52-46. It's just going to come down to which side does the better job of getting its people out. On Question 4, which is the Taxpayers Bill of Rights (TABOR 2), the outcome is more clear. 57% of voters are opposed to it with just 39% in favor. 76% of Democrats, 53% of independents, and even 39% of Republicans say they will vote against it and it's safe to say it has no chance with that level of opposition from the GOP.
**Corzine’s approval rating with that group of voters is only 3%, and those folks seem to have picked Christie as the lesser of two evils**
I wasn’t aware that Corzine was this low in the polls. Hmmmm.
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