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The Future of White People
The American Prospect ^ | March 16, 2011 | Jamelle Bouie

Posted on 03/16/2011 2:38:24 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Matthew Yglesias predicts that the white voters will become more Republican as nonwhites become a greater share of the population:

I used to hold to the view that the growing non-white share of the electorate would, over time, tip elections to Democrats. I now think the system will remain near equilibrium and what we’ll instead see is white voters growing more Republican as Democrats are more and more seen as the party of non-whites. Mississippi and Arizona, after all, have very large minority votes but they’re hardly hotbeds of liberalism. Instead they’re hotbeds of very conservative white people. Jonathan Chait isn't so sure and -- noting the significant liberal advantage among younger whites -- predicts a relatively durable Democratic majority going forward:

For Yglesias's thesis to be born out, those white voters would have to undergo a massive pro-Republican shift as they age -- not only getting more Republican, but getting more Republican than current old white voters are right now.

That seems unlikely. It seems to me that the choices really are that Republicans will achieve parity among Latinos -- which probably depends upon getting them to identify with the whites and against the blacks -- or else Democrats will have a general working majority, interrupted by recessions, scandals, and whatnot.

While Chait is probably underestimating the extent to which a large number of whites will become more conservative as the nonwhite population grows (most white people aren't under the age of 30), in the long-term, he's probably right, especially given the tendency of partisan affiliation to harden after a certain point. In all likelihood, if you're a Democrat in your 20s, then -- barring a dramatic change in the political landscape -- you'll probably be a Democrat for the rest of your life.

Two additional things.

First, I'm still pretty bullish on the possibility that Republicans will achieve parity with Latinos; as I've noted before, given high intermarriage rates between whites and Latinos, there's a fair chance that future America will have a large population of white people with Hispanic last names. Given the fluidity of these things, there's no real reason to think that these whites wouldn't be susceptible to conservative appeals on national identity/American-ness. Indeed, the only complicating factor is the Republican Party; continued demonization of Latinos as an electoral strategy could easily lead to a situation where most Latinos move overwhelmingly to support most Democrats in most elections (see: African Americans for a current example of this).

Second, even if Republicans do gain a foothold among Latinos, my guess is that the Democratic Party will still end up with a general working majority in most instances. It's not that Americans love liberalism, but that Democrats are willing to tolerate huge levels of ideological difference for the sake of electoral gain. Between demographic changes and partisan coalitions, I wouldn't be shocked if -- over the next 50 years -- we return to the 20th century pattern of "natural" Democratic majorities, interrupted by brief periods of conservative dominance and the occasional Republican president.


TOPICS: Government; Politics; Society
KEYWORDS: blacks; democrats; hispanics; whites
Comments?
1 posted on 03/16/2011 2:38:28 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

this is not going to flow because Democrats have become the party of homosexuals and radical feminists.


2 posted on 03/16/2011 2:40:14 PM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

About the same as the NBA, NFL and Tax System.


3 posted on 03/16/2011 2:42:11 PM PDT by screaminsunshine (34 States)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“I used to hold to the view that the growing non-white share of the electorate would, over time, tip elections to Democrats. I now think the system will remain near equilibrium and what we’ll instead see is white voters growing more Republican as Democrats are more and more seen as the party of non-whites”

I agree. The one thing we can give Obama credit for is unifying the White vote. Not totally unified, but he’s definitely brought its center of mass (maybe as much as 70% of the white population) over to the conservative side.

The Dems are also angering the Hispanics BIG-TIME with their support for gay rights, abortion, and other crappy stuff...so the Hispanics remain up for grabs...and there goes the group that the Dems were really relying on.

I think the Dems will so be FINISHED as a major political player...unfortunately, they will likely destroy the country economically before they finally crushed.


4 posted on 03/16/2011 2:50:10 PM PDT by BobL (PLEASE READ: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2657811/posts)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Wishful thinking.

In my opinion this is an attempt to assuage the Democrats sinking view of their own party; to counteract their bitter losses last November, and ongoing defeat at the state level reducing public union power.

5 posted on 03/16/2011 2:53:38 PM PDT by Tony O (hibobbi!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Republicans don’t demonize Latinos. That is BS. Republicans want to stop illegal invaders of any kind no matter what their ethnicity. Just so happens that the majority of illegals are Latino.


6 posted on 03/16/2011 2:56:54 PM PDT by lone star annie
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Jonathan Chait isn't so sure and -- noting the significant liberal advantage among younger whites -- predicts a relatively durable Democratic majority going forward:

For Yglesias's thesis to be born out, those white voters would have to undergo a massive pro-Republican shift as they age -- not only getting more Republican, but getting more Republican than current old white voters are right now.

That seems unlikely. It seems to me that the choices really are that Republicans will achieve parity among Latinos -- which probably depends upon getting them to identify with the whites and against the blacks -- or else Democrats will have a general working majority, interrupted by recessions, scandals, and whatnot.

Sounds like blind men trying to figure out what an elephant is.

Race may not be as much of a factor in the future. Or at least racial factors won't be so crudely determinative on the national level as these guys think.

You'll find some Latins assimilating and joining the Republicans. That's already happening. Where Democrats take the side of illegals, you may find African-Americans moving closer to the Republicans. And where there isn't much immigration, current patterns are more likely to continue.

You don't usually get permanently lopsided political imbalances in our system because the major parties are highly competitive organisms. Groups that are left out of the party in power's governing coalition gravitate to the other party when there aren't substantial obstacles standing in their way. And there aren't such obstacles now.

7 posted on 03/16/2011 2:56:54 PM PDT by x
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

That Obama has been named “Gun Salesman of the Year” for two years running would tend to support your point.


8 posted on 03/16/2011 2:58:17 PM PDT by bopdowah ("Unlike King Midas, whatever the Gubmint touches sure don't turn to Gold!')
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
If you're a straight, white, Christian male the democrats will treat you as a second class person. We don't fit into any of their victim groups so they blame us for everything wrong in the world. I don't know how any sane person of any color could vote for mindless freaks like Pelosi, Frank, Reid and all the other democrats.
9 posted on 03/16/2011 3:01:32 PM PDT by peeps36 (America is being destroyed by filthy traitors in the political establishment)
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To: peeps36

10 posted on 03/16/2011 3:05:52 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet ("You cannot invade the US There would be a rifle behind each blade of grass." Yamamoto)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen in the political game in this country. I do know that it won’t matter. Within ten years, fifteen tops, the entire country will be part of history. We have a chance right now, and very slim one to fix what needs fixin’, to grab a hold on the “Ship of State” and turn her around. Too bad those elected to do just that are only interested in the perpetuation of the same corrupt system. At some point, in the very near future, our interest payments to service the national debt will reach 100% of receipts. At that point, all money spent on anything other than debt service will be more debt. Nobody will loan us the money, hyperinflation will result, and the country will be pillaged like 16th century Latin America. There will be no political party to save us then, just an act of God, an act of Congress would just be a joke.


11 posted on 03/16/2011 3:24:14 PM PDT by runninglips (government debt = slavery of the masses)
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To: runninglips
Buy bullets, beans, and band-aids.

Our solar system has a visitor who is raising cain! (See Revelations Wormwood, KJV)

12 posted on 03/16/2011 3:27:24 PM PDT by investigateworld (Free Traders don't need guns 'cause they know The Peoples Republic of China are their friends)
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What people aren’t realizing is that the “white share” of the GOP is shrinking thus the DEM Party will re-power itself.

Point blank, whites aren’t investing in babies, they’re investing in ipads, cars, too much house, and guns. I laugh at all the tough “gun-guys” here. You aren’t going to do nothing with your guns. Guns are meaningless. You should be investing in more kids and raising them RIGHT. That’s how this war for America (and Western Civ/Christendom) is really being fought.


13 posted on 03/16/2011 3:35:49 PM PDT by MrInvisible
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To: MrInvisible

Illegal Jose or Mohammed may only make 25 grand a year but he has 5 kids.

You’re doing 100 grand a year and have 2 kids.

Guess who’s got more votes? And guess who’s got more sway in the school, legal and government system? They do, you don’t.

They just use their votes to take half your 100k a year away from you. And their kids in school bully yours and the school won’t do anything because they have more power than you. It’s a numbers game.

Have babies.


14 posted on 03/16/2011 3:38:57 PM PDT by MrInvisible
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Jean Raspail wrote the history about 25 years ago in Camp of the Saints. It's a great book. Read it.

ML/NJ

15 posted on 03/16/2011 3:43:51 PM PDT by ml/nj
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To: ml/nj

I am in my early 40’s and nearly every white couple I know has at least 4 kids. Don’t count us out yet. If we can just stop the influx of new illegals we can fix this mess.


16 posted on 03/16/2011 3:56:43 PM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama = Carter 2.0 The Epic Fail Edition)
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To: TexasFreeper2009
Read the book.

nearly every white couple I know has at least 4 kids

We only had two. And only one grandchild so far. Lots of Islamic Swine have been born in the interim.

ML/NJ

17 posted on 03/16/2011 4:07:52 PM PDT by ml/nj
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It is time to have that ‘honest’ discussion on race that Holder keeps alluding to. The GOP pretending that race doesn’t matter while the left pushes it up our rear end is certainly a loser. Just like the left screaming racist to the Tea Party from the comfort of the Black Caucus etc.

I am not sure if it is naivety, cowardice or just stupidity that thinks all these race groups will go away? That racial grievance, power & ‘social justice’ et al will just magically dissipate. Not only will they not go away but will continue to get stronger if we don’t alter our current path.


18 posted on 03/16/2011 4:13:53 PM PDT by Altura Ct.
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To: MrInvisible

You’ve got to consider that White conservative birthrates are higher than White liberal birthrates. The secular, pro-abortion, liberal Whites are the ones who forego childbirth in favor of materialism, so this means that the White population could become more conservative over time just from this discrepancy. Of course, the liberals realize this, and think they can just indoctrinate all those conservatives’ kids when they go to school, so it might not work out that way.


19 posted on 03/16/2011 5:04:43 PM PDT by Boogieman
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The article is partially right, but for the wrong reason, IMO.

White Americans will become increasingly CONSERVATIVE as the liberals increasingly pander to minorities - to the exclusion (extrusion? LOL) of majority voters.

The republicans will pick up these voters by default - unless the tea party is forced to make the GOP defunct.


20 posted on 03/16/2011 5:07:15 PM PDT by MortMan (What disease did cured ham used to have?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The democrats are going to be confused when they learn that brown conservatives get just as pissed off at them as white conservatives. They just might not understand the profanity.


21 posted on 03/16/2011 5:10:02 PM PDT by Caipirabob ( Communists... Socialists... Democrats...Traitors... Who can tell the difference?)
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To: investigateworld
Buy bullets, beans, and band-aids,

That I am doing. I am also doing what someone suggested, i.e., buying those big-ticket items that I've been thinking about. If hyperinflation shows up they'll be priced out of reach.

22 posted on 03/16/2011 5:22:39 PM PDT by OldPossum
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To: BobL

sorry to be the bearer of bad news but Obama got 45 percent of non hospanic white vote

that used to be low enough to insure opponent got elected

but with hispanic population so huge it now takes 57-58 % of whites to assure victory
no way do we pick up a 15 point swing to the 70 percent figure you hoped for


23 posted on 03/16/2011 11:35:59 PM PDT by wardaddy (FUHB)
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To: MrInvisible

whoa now big shot....white guy here with big house...11 year old 911. guns..plenty...no ipad

and FIVE CHILDREN

so careful with that “brush” Eugene


24 posted on 03/16/2011 11:40:52 PM PDT by wardaddy (FUHB)
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To: x

lol...im on a droid but knew it had to be one of you guys as i read down


25 posted on 03/16/2011 11:42:39 PM PDT by wardaddy (FUHB)
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To: wardaddy

“but with hispanic population so huge it now takes 57-58 % of whites to assure victory
no way do we pick up a 15 point swing to the 70 percent figure you hoped for”

We’re already there...what do you think happened in 2010?


26 posted on 03/17/2011 5:18:08 AM PDT by BobL (PLEASE READ: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2657811/posts)
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To: BobL

I was referring to your musing that as many as 70% of whites were now GOP. The evidence is simply not there but things have improved from 2008.

elections for POTUS could get the vaunted 57-58% with right candidate

and don’t forget at the rate Dem voting minorities are increasing in proportion it will take more and more of a percentage of whites voting right to thwart that

according to an exit polls in n2010:

whites went 60% for GOP in 2010..that would have won POTUS election today......ABC

women went 49% GOP and 49% Dem.....ABC

Hispanics 66% GOP..about usual...but it was almost even in Florida due to Cuban vote....RCP

Blacks 89%...PEW

and if you look at our ever brainwashed over race younger folks ..say under 35 or even 40 today...I am far from optimistic...the under 30s vote Dem by a large margin, the Gen X folks not so much but it teeters in either direction


27 posted on 03/17/2011 8:28:47 AM PDT by wardaddy (FUHB)
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To: wardaddy

“I was referring to your musing that as many as 70% of whites were now GOP. The evidence is simply not there but things have improved from 2008.”

I stand by it...and we’ll see. Once you remove the racial guilt part of white voting, the Dems get SWAMPED.


28 posted on 03/17/2011 8:40:39 AM PDT by BobL (PLEASE READ: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2657811/posts)
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To: MrInvisible
You aren’t going to do nothing with your guns.

Remains to be seen, doesn't it?

Guns are meaningless.

LOL! Well, in the meantime, all the grand'kids' can go shooting with me, and only be two deep along the firing line.

You should be investing in more kids and raising them RIGHT

I'll start with the great-grandkids at the range next year.

29 posted on 03/17/2011 8:44:12 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Is it "Latinos" versus Americans, or "Latinos" versus conservatives? If the identifier of "Latino" takes precedence over being American we have a problem.

That is my problem with all self described hyphenated people. They don't put American first, if they even mention America at all.

Unless and until that happens, we are already balkanized.

People have no idea how much the squabbling (incited by government action and otherwise) keeps America from cleaning up the festering cesspit in DC, but then, that was the intent of those who put in place the policies which keep various groups in conflict.

So long as we fight among ourselves for a crust of bread, they are free to have cake and ice cream to themselves--and we're left washing dishes for the tab.

30 posted on 03/17/2011 9:06:08 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: wardaddy
and if you look at our ever brainwashed over race younger folks ..say under 35 or even 40 today...I am far from optimistic...the under 30s vote Dem by a large margin, the Gen X folks not so much but it teeters in either direction

That's my fear, and I'm in my 30's. Right now, we have a big difference in my generation (X) and the millennials. The one thing that I hope happens is what happens with my generation and almost all the recent ones. We got more conservative as we age, work more, and have families. What scares me is that while my generation was mostly apathetic, this one seems like they "know everything" and their stuff doesn't stink. I hope the millennials realize the crap that comes out of universities these days and apply some critical thinking to this global warming tripe.

31 posted on 03/17/2011 9:12:18 AM PDT by Darren McCarty (We should lead ourselves instead of looking for leaders)
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To: ml/nj
you wrote

"Jean Raspail wrote the history about 25 years ago in Camp of the Saints. It's a great book. Read it."

I repeat: READ IT.

It outlines the future of the Western World, and its demise.

It will cure many of their "warm fuzzy, feelings-based" ignorance and Kumbayah mentality.

32 posted on 03/17/2011 9:12:49 AM PDT by I Buried My Guns (Novare Res!)
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To: Smokin' Joe

Which is why I don’t shop at Wal-Mart, they donate millins to La Raza and open border canidates.


33 posted on 03/17/2011 11:32:32 AM PDT by investigateworld (Free Traders don't need guns 'cause they know The Peoples Republic of China are their friends)
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