Posted on 03/16/2011 2:38:24 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Matthew Yglesias predicts that the white voters will become more Republican as nonwhites become a greater share of the population:
I used to hold to the view that the growing non-white share of the electorate would, over time, tip elections to Democrats. I now think the system will remain near equilibrium and what we’ll instead see is white voters growing more Republican as Democrats are more and more seen as the party of non-whites. Mississippi and Arizona, after all, have very large minority votes but they’re hardly hotbeds of liberalism. Instead they’re hotbeds of very conservative white people. Jonathan Chait isn't so sure and -- noting the significant liberal advantage among younger whites -- predicts a relatively durable Democratic majority going forward:
For Yglesias's thesis to be born out, those white voters would have to undergo a massive pro-Republican shift as they age -- not only getting more Republican, but getting more Republican than current old white voters are right now.
That seems unlikely. It seems to me that the choices really are that Republicans will achieve parity among Latinos -- which probably depends upon getting them to identify with the whites and against the blacks -- or else Democrats will have a general working majority, interrupted by recessions, scandals, and whatnot.
While Chait is probably underestimating the extent to which a large number of whites will become more conservative as the nonwhite population grows (most white people aren't under the age of 30), in the long-term, he's probably right, especially given the tendency of partisan affiliation to harden after a certain point. In all likelihood, if you're a Democrat in your 20s, then -- barring a dramatic change in the political landscape -- you'll probably be a Democrat for the rest of your life.
Two additional things.
First, I'm still pretty bullish on the possibility that Republicans will achieve parity with Latinos; as I've noted before, given high intermarriage rates between whites and Latinos, there's a fair chance that future America will have a large population of white people with Hispanic last names. Given the fluidity of these things, there's no real reason to think that these whites wouldn't be susceptible to conservative appeals on national identity/American-ness. Indeed, the only complicating factor is the Republican Party; continued demonization of Latinos as an electoral strategy could easily lead to a situation where most Latinos move overwhelmingly to support most Democrats in most elections (see: African Americans for a current example of this).
Second, even if Republicans do gain a foothold among Latinos, my guess is that the Democratic Party will still end up with a general working majority in most instances. It's not that Americans love liberalism, but that Democrats are willing to tolerate huge levels of ideological difference for the sake of electoral gain. Between demographic changes and partisan coalitions, I wouldn't be shocked if -- over the next 50 years -- we return to the 20th century pattern of "natural" Democratic majorities, interrupted by brief periods of conservative dominance and the occasional Republican president.
The democrats are going to be confused when they learn that brown conservatives get just as pissed off at them as white conservatives. They just might not understand the profanity.
That I am doing. I am also doing what someone suggested, i.e., buying those big-ticket items that I've been thinking about. If hyperinflation shows up they'll be priced out of reach.
sorry to be the bearer of bad news but Obama got 45 percent of non hospanic white vote
that used to be low enough to insure opponent got elected
but with hispanic population so huge it now takes 57-58 % of whites to assure victory
no way do we pick up a 15 point swing to the 70 percent figure you hoped for
whoa now big shot....white guy here with big house...11 year old 911. guns..plenty...no ipad
and FIVE CHILDREN
so careful with that “brush” Eugene
lol...im on a droid but knew it had to be one of you guys as i read down
“but with hispanic population so huge it now takes 57-58 % of whites to assure victory
no way do we pick up a 15 point swing to the 70 percent figure you hoped for”
We’re already there...what do you think happened in 2010?
I was referring to your musing that as many as 70% of whites were now GOP. The evidence is simply not there but things have improved from 2008.
elections for POTUS could get the vaunted 57-58% with right candidate
and don’t forget at the rate Dem voting minorities are increasing in proportion it will take more and more of a percentage of whites voting right to thwart that
according to an exit polls in n2010:
whites went 60% for GOP in 2010..that would have won POTUS election today......ABC
women went 49% GOP and 49% Dem.....ABC
Hispanics 66% GOP..about usual...but it was almost even in Florida due to Cuban vote....RCP
Blacks 89%...PEW
and if you look at our ever brainwashed over race younger folks ..say under 35 or even 40 today...I am far from optimistic...the under 30s vote Dem by a large margin, the Gen X folks not so much but it teeters in either direction
“I was referring to your musing that as many as 70% of whites were now GOP. The evidence is simply not there but things have improved from 2008.”
I stand by it...and we’ll see. Once you remove the racial guilt part of white voting, the Dems get SWAMPED.
Remains to be seen, doesn't it?
Guns are meaningless.
LOL! Well, in the meantime, all the grand'kids' can go shooting with me, and only be two deep along the firing line.
You should be investing in more kids and raising them RIGHT
I'll start with the great-grandkids at the range next year.
That is my problem with all self described hyphenated people. They don't put American first, if they even mention America at all.
Unless and until that happens, we are already balkanized.
People have no idea how much the squabbling (incited by government action and otherwise) keeps America from cleaning up the festering cesspit in DC, but then, that was the intent of those who put in place the policies which keep various groups in conflict.
So long as we fight among ourselves for a crust of bread, they are free to have cake and ice cream to themselves--and we're left washing dishes for the tab.
That's my fear, and I'm in my 30's. Right now, we have a big difference in my generation (X) and the millennials. The one thing that I hope happens is what happens with my generation and almost all the recent ones. We got more conservative as we age, work more, and have families. What scares me is that while my generation was mostly apathetic, this one seems like they "know everything" and their stuff doesn't stink. I hope the millennials realize the crap that comes out of universities these days and apply some critical thinking to this global warming tripe.
"Jean Raspail wrote the history about 25 years ago in Camp of the Saints. It's a great book. Read it."
I repeat: READ IT.
It outlines the future of the Western World, and its demise.
It will cure many of their "warm fuzzy, feelings-based" ignorance and Kumbayah mentality.
Which is why I don’t shop at Wal-Mart, they donate millins to La Raza and open border canidates.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.