Skip to comments.Why Governor Perry is still likely to be nominated
Posted on 10/27/2011 11:05:28 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
Numerous preemptive obituaries are being written for Governor Rick Perrys campaign. These efforts are premature because they fail to understand and appreciate the fickle winds of political fortune.
Governor Perry has substantial political assets that make him a potent candidate and that will give him another chance to prove himself to Republican voters.
Each candidate brings their own set of positives and negatives to the game:
Mitt Romney has money to burn, establishment support, business experience, and passable debating skills. He also has a record far to the left of the majority of Republicans, a history of changing his position on major issues, and gives the impression that he will let you down when your back is turned.
Herman Cain has business experience, a high likability factor, and a fresh approach to conventional problems. He also has a propensity for confusing statements, no history of political success, and seems less vested in his own campaign than are his supporters.
Newt Gingrich has laser-like intelligence, a thorough understanding of policy choices, and excellent debating skills. He also has two ex-wives, a tendency to talk too much, and a manner that strikes many independents and women as smug or arrogant.
Rick Perry is not an able debater. In fact he seems to be bored with the entire exercise and I dont blame him for that. The process that currently passes for debate is a valueless mixture of antagonistic press conference and TV quiz show. Rick Perry is not a policy wonk. Neither was Ronald Reagan. Neither was Dwight Eisenhower. Neither was George Washington.
What Governor Perry does have is:
A demonstrated ability to win elections.
A demonstrated understanding of how to lead and govern.
A Reaganesque capacity to touch the mystic chords of memory that bind us together.
A large stockpile of cash.
A set of opponents who all have significant electoral problems of their own.
While being ahead is intuitively always better than being behind, the clear political fact is that polls in October-November-December, dont win elections in January and February. An Iowa State University poll published on November 18, 2003 showed Howard Dean at 29%, Dick Gephardt at 21%, John Kerry at 15%, and John Edwards at 8%. A Pew Research poll published on December 2, 2003 showed Dean at 26%, Gephardt at 22%, Kerry at 9%, and Edwards at 5%. (H/T nationalpolls.com)
The Democrats experience in 2004 is I think highly relevant as it was largely the mirror image of 2012. Eight years ago Democrats loathed George W. Bush just as conservatives today cant stomach Barack Obama. Like Obama now, Bush was widely seen as vulnerable and thus there was a wide open scrum for the Democrat nomination.
For all his money Mitt Romney has been unable to close the deal with Republican voters. For all his current polling success, Herman Cain still appears to be a long shot to stay the distance. For all of his smarts and ability Newt Gingrich retains major downside risks.
The flaws of his opponents, together with his own considerable skill and potential, leaves an opening the size of Texas for Governor Rick Perry.
Perry on talking to the family about the decision to run:
..There's a young man, a Navy SEAL that Anita and I took care of for about two-and-a-half years. He basically adopted us. His name is Marcus Luttrell [co-author of the book Lone Survivor]. He was in the family meeting too. It was Anita, myself, Griffin, his wife Meredith, Sydney, Marcus, and his wife. Seven of us sat down, and we had a conversation.
Rick Perry and Marcus Luttrell
Simply put, no way in hell.
That’s the real boss behind the podium, holding up her hand.
Give it a break! Your spamming of freerepublic is getting very obnoxious. The guy is a stammering dunce in the debates and was dumb enough to tell 75% of the country they had no heart. Obama, as weak as he is, would shred Perry in a debate. We need someone who can articulate the conservative message. Perry has proven he is not that person.
Yes, the electorate are chomping at the bit to elect yet another neo-con from Texas, not a whole lot different from Bush 43.
Perry will go down in flames against Zer0.
He hasn’t a chance. .
Other than you and the other 5% of Republican voters, he will be drubbed and crushed by zer0.
i prefer perry’s flat tax to cain’s 999.
but these guys at RED STATE are so in the tank for perry, it’s a little bit vomit-inducing.
Interesting to see Rick Perry reaching out to others as Rick Perry now stands with Sheila Jackson Lee in her opposition of Confederate licensee plates in Texas.
Way too early to draw conclusions.
I’m no Perry fan and have bashed him here for months but he is far from being out of the race. He has money, structure and some pretty good people working with him. None of these three things are shrinking for him.
And I thought the 2007/8 Huckabee spammers were relentless.
Put a fork in him, Perry’s done. He better get back to Texas why he still has a chance to save the job he has.
I wouldn’t say that he is the “likely” nominee, but I still think he has a good chance, for some of the reasons mentioned in the article.
He HAS to finish strong in Iowa. Top 2. Otherwise, he’s toast. South Carolina will start looking at the Iowa winner.
I predict a surprise winner in Iowa. Not sure who. Santorum, Newt, or Bachmann maybe. Iowa can be weird like that.
Romney will win NH. Perry will then HAVE to win South Carolina.
When you are at 6-10% in the polls and you are AFRAID to debate because you stink at it, I don’t think the nomination is “likely”.
In a Perry vs Obama race, it will be extremely easy to cast the election as a choice between a doer and a talker. All a Perry will need to do is say something like “Yes, Obama is a fantastic Orator. Did I mention that Texas added more jobs in the last 4 years than the rest of the US combined?”
Salon Exclusive: The Texas governor's uncomfortably close ties to groups that glorify the Lost Cause
Rick Perry made national headlines in 2009 when, during a speech to a Tea Party group, he floated the possibility that Texas could secede from the union. But the governor's substantive ties to the neo-Confederate movement may be deeper than previously known.
A 1998 voting guide published by a leading neo-Confederate group and obtained by Salon not only endorses Perry for lieutenant governor but also describes him as "a member of the Sons of Confederate Veterans." Perry's office did not respond to a request for comment about the governor's possible membership in the Sons of Confederate Veterans.
This is the document, published by the League of the South on its website DixieNet.org; it was unearthed by Edward Sebesta, a Texas-based independent researcher and co-editor of "Neo-Confederacy: A Critical Introduction." Click the image for larger size.
[BIG BIG BIG SNIP]
UPDATE 7/14/11: Perry spokeswoman Catherine Frazier issues this denial: "[T]he governor never joined that group nor has he ever paid any dues to it."
I've asked her if he has a position on the pending license plate issue, and if I hear back I will update this post.
Romney will be like McCain, he won’t go after Obama too hard. He will even say things like “He’s a great guy...”. ugh. If McCain had picked anyone but Palin for VP, he would have lost by 30%.
Good points. Perry could even make light of his speaking shortfalls in a good way; if it was done well.
It's too bad we have to elect a orator instead of a leader. But in today's age; speaking skills are very important.