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Why Governor Perry is still likely to be nominated
Red State ^ | October 27, 2011 | barleycorn

Posted on 10/27/2011 11:05:28 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife

Numerous preemptive obituaries are being written for Governor Rick Perry’s campaign. These efforts are premature because they fail to understand and appreciate the fickle winds of political fortune.

Governor Perry has substantial political assets that make him a potent candidate and that will give him another chance to prove himself to Republican voters.

Each candidate brings their own set of positives and negatives to the game:

Mitt Romney has money to burn, establishment support, business experience, and passable debating skills. He also has a record far to the left of the majority of Republicans, a history of changing his position on major issues, and gives the impression that he will let you down when your back is turned.

Herman Cain has business experience, a high likability factor, and a fresh approach to conventional problems. He also has a propensity for confusing statements, no history of political success, and seems less vested in his own campaign than are his supporters.

Newt Gingrich has laser-like intelligence, a thorough understanding of policy choices, and excellent debating skills. He also has two ex-wives, a tendency to talk too much, and a manner that strikes many independents and women as smug or arrogant.

Rick Perry is not an able debater. In fact he seems to be bored with the entire exercise and I don’t blame him for that. The process that currently passes for “debate” is a valueless mixture of antagonistic press conference and TV quiz show. Rick Perry is not a policy wonk. Neither was Ronald Reagan. Neither was Dwight Eisenhower. Neither was George Washington.

What Governor Perry does have is:

A demonstrated ability to win elections.

A demonstrated understanding of how to lead and govern.

A Reaganesque capacity to touch the “mystic chords of memory” that bind us together.

A large stockpile of cash.

A set of opponents who all have significant electoral problems of their own.

While being ahead is intuitively always better than being behind, the clear political fact is that polls in October-November-December, don’t win elections in January and February. An Iowa State University poll published on November 18, 2003 showed Howard Dean at 29%, Dick Gephardt at 21%, John Kerry at 15%, and John Edwards at 8%. A Pew Research poll published on December 2, 2003 showed Dean at 26%, Gephardt at 22%, Kerry at 9%, and Edwards at 5%. (H/T nationalpolls.com)

The Democrat’s experience in 2004 is I think highly relevant as it was largely the mirror image of 2012. Eight years ago Democrats loathed George W. Bush just as conservatives today can’t stomach Barack Obama. Like Obama now, Bush was widely seen as vulnerable and thus there was a wide open scrum for the Democrat nomination.

For all his money Mitt Romney has been unable to close the deal with Republican voters. For all his current polling success, Herman Cain still appears to be a long shot to stay the distance. For all of his smarts and ability Newt Gingrich retains major downside risks.

The flaws of his opponents, together with his own considerable skill and potential, leaves an opening the size of Texas for Governor Rick Perry.


TOPICS: Government; Politics; Society
KEYWORDS: 0heartless0; campaigning; delusional; derangement; economy; gopprimary; perry2012; perryastroturfing
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Texas Governor Rick Perry is joined with his family Son Griffin (L) daughter- in-law Meredith (3rd R), daughter Sydney Perry (2nd R), and wife Anita after announcing his presidential bid, in Charleston, South Carolina, August 13, 2011.

Perry on talking to the family about the decision to run: … ..“There's a young man, a Navy SEAL that Anita and I took care of for about two-and-a-half years. He basically adopted us. His name is Marcus Luttrell [co-author of the book Lone Survivor]. He was in the family meeting too. It was Anita, myself, Griffin, his wife Meredith, Sydney, Marcus, and his wife. Seven of us sat down, and we had a conversation.”….. Source
Rick Perry and Marcus Luttrell

1 posted on 10/27/2011 11:05:35 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: All; shield

The Perry Economic Plan: Cut, Balance and Grow

The Perry Plan: Energizing American Jobs and Security

2 posted on 10/27/2011 11:07:03 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Simply put, no way in hell.


3 posted on 10/27/2011 11:09:19 AM PDT by steel_resolve
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

That’s the real boss behind the podium, holding up her hand.


4 posted on 10/27/2011 11:10:34 AM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Give it a break! Your spamming of freerepublic is getting very obnoxious. The guy is a stammering dunce in the debates and was dumb enough to tell 75% of the country they had no heart. Obama, as weak as he is, would shred Perry in a debate. We need someone who can articulate the conservative message. Perry has proven he is not that person.


5 posted on 10/27/2011 11:10:58 AM PDT by teg_76
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Yes, the electorate are chomping at the bit to elect yet another neo-con from Texas, not a whole lot different from Bush 43.

Perry will go down in flames against Zer0.

He hasn’t a chance. .

Other than you and the other 5% of Republican voters, he will be drubbed and crushed by zer0.


6 posted on 10/27/2011 11:13:13 AM PDT by Westbrook
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

i prefer perry’s flat tax to cain’s 999.

but these guys at RED STATE are so in the tank for perry, it’s a little bit vomit-inducing.


7 posted on 10/27/2011 11:13:38 AM PDT by exist
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Interesting to see Rick Perry reaching out to others as Rick Perry now stands with Sheila Jackson Lee in her opposition of Confederate licensee plates in Texas.


8 posted on 10/27/2011 11:16:04 AM PDT by trumandogz (In Rick Perry's Nanny State, the state will drive your kids to the dentist at tax payer expense)
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To: trumandogz

Lame..Try harder


9 posted on 10/27/2011 11:18:34 AM PDT by MEG33 (God Bless Our Military Men And Women)
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To: teg_76
Give it a break! Your spamming of freerepublic is getting very obnoxious....


10 posted on 10/27/2011 11:18:41 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: teg_76

Way too early to draw conclusions.

I’m no Perry fan and have bashed him here for months but he is far from being out of the race. He has money, structure and some pretty good people working with him. None of these three things are shrinking for him.


11 posted on 10/27/2011 11:18:53 AM PDT by isthisnickcool (Sharia? No thanks.)
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To: Cicero

12 posted on 10/27/2011 11:19:18 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

And I thought the 2007/8 Huckabee spammers were relentless.

Put a fork in him, Perry’s done. He better get back to Texas why he still has a chance to save the job he has.


13 posted on 10/27/2011 11:21:55 AM PDT by NavyCanDo
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

I wouldn’t say that he is the “likely” nominee, but I still think he has a good chance, for some of the reasons mentioned in the article.

He HAS to finish strong in Iowa. Top 2. Otherwise, he’s toast. South Carolina will start looking at the Iowa winner.

I predict a surprise winner in Iowa. Not sure who. Santorum, Newt, or Bachmann maybe. Iowa can be weird like that.

Romney will win NH. Perry will then HAVE to win South Carolina.


14 posted on 10/27/2011 11:23:10 AM PDT by Retired Greyhound (.)
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To: steel_resolve; South40

When you are at 6-10% in the polls and you are AFRAID to debate because you stink at it, I don’t think the nomination is “likely”.


15 posted on 10/27/2011 11:23:33 AM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Happiness)
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To: teg_76

In a Perry vs Obama race, it will be extremely easy to cast the election as a choice between a doer and a talker. All a Perry will need to do is say something like “Yes, Obama is a fantastic Orator. Did I mention that Texas added more jobs in the last 4 years than the rest of the US combined?”


16 posted on 10/27/2011 11:23:35 AM PDT by TennesseeProfessor
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To: trumandogz
Rick Perry's Confederate past [Salon "exclusive" that gets it wrong]

Salon Exclusive: The Texas governor's uncomfortably close ties to groups that glorify the Lost Cause

[UPDATED BELOW]

Rick Perry made national headlines in 2009 when, during a speech to a Tea Party group, he floated the possibility that Texas could secede from the union. But the governor's substantive ties to the neo-Confederate movement may be deeper than previously known.

A 1998 voting guide published by a leading neo-Confederate group and obtained by Salon not only endorses Perry for lieutenant governor but also describes him as "a member of the Sons of Confederate Veterans." Perry's office did not respond to a request for comment about the governor's possible membership in the Sons of Confederate Veterans.

This is the document, published by the League of the South on its website DixieNet.org; it was unearthed by Edward Sebesta, a Texas-based independent researcher and co-editor of "Neo-Confederacy: A Critical Introduction." Click the image for larger size.

[BIG BIG BIG SNIP]

UPDATE 7/14/11: Perry spokeswoman Catherine Frazier issues this denial: "[T]he governor never joined that group nor has he ever paid any dues to it."

I've asked her if he has a position on the pending license plate issue, and if I hear back I will update this post.

17 posted on 10/27/2011 11:26:45 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Westbrook

Romney will be like McCain, he won’t go after Obama too hard. He will even say things like “He’s a great guy...”. ugh. If McCain had picked anyone but Palin for VP, he would have lost by 30%.


18 posted on 10/27/2011 11:26:52 AM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Happiness)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
Ricky Peron is a POS. America is turning into Norte Mexicana.......No way in HELL will I ever vote for an open borders SCUMBAG like Ricky. Go away already and take Mitt with you.


19 posted on 10/27/2011 11:27:27 AM PDT by Electric Graffiti (Crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentation of their Moonbats)
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To: TennesseeProfessor
“All a Perry will need to do is say something like “Yes, Obama is a fantastic Orator. Did I mention that Texas added more jobs in the last 4 years than the rest of the US combined?””

Good points. Perry could even make light of his speaking shortfalls in a good way; if it was done well.

It's too bad we have to elect a orator instead of a leader. But in today's age; speaking skills are very important.

20 posted on 10/27/2011 11:27:58 AM PDT by HereInTheHeartland (I love how the FR spellchecker doesn't recognize the word "Obama")
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To: NavyCanDo
And I thought the 2007/8 Huckabee spammers were relentless.

No one invited you to click on this thread or post a comment so you obviously like to.

21 posted on 10/27/2011 11:29:11 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

These endless photos of your boy crush - it’s like reading Tiger Beat for middle-aged women - has gotta stop. It’s not helping, I’m telling you. He’s not that great!


22 posted on 10/27/2011 11:30:18 AM PDT by miss marmelstein (Let's have a Cain Mutiny!)
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To: Electric Graffiti
Ricky Peron is a POS. America is turning into Norte Mexicana.............

Really? How is he doing that?

23 posted on 10/27/2011 11:30:26 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: miss marmelstein

24 posted on 10/27/2011 11:31:34 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife; RoosterRedux; jonrick46; deepbluesea; RockinRight; TexMom7; potlatch; ...
Perry Ping....

IF you'd rather NOT be pinged FReepmail me.

IF you'd like to be added FReepmail me. Thanks.

*****************************************************************************************************************************************************


25 posted on 10/27/2011 11:32:15 AM PDT by shield (Rev 2:9 Woe unto those who say they are Judahites and are not, but are of the syna GOG ue of Satan.)
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To: Cicero

Wonder how she is at debating?


26 posted on 10/27/2011 11:33:34 AM PDT by Leep
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To: miss marmelstein

“These endless photos of your boy crush - it’s like reading Tiger Beat for middle-aged women”

LOL!


27 posted on 10/27/2011 11:33:59 AM PDT by NavyCanDo
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
Because all the ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS are gonna' vote for him.


28 posted on 10/27/2011 11:34:31 AM PDT by Yosemitest (It's simple, fight or die!)
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To: exist
but these guys at RED STATE are so in the tank for perry, it’s a little bit vomit-inducing.

Actually, Erick Erickson isn't a Rick Perry fan these days.

29 posted on 10/27/2011 11:35:11 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: NavyCanDo
Maybe Gov. Perry's mother Amelia can make you a cup of tea to calm your nerves.


Amelia Perry(right), mother of Texas Gov. Rick Perry, shows her quilts at a meeting of the Buffalo Gap Republican Woman's Club at Perini Ranch Steakhouse Friday.
Perry called this quilt her "Scarlet O'Hara" quilt, because she made it out of a curtain during a time she was getting cancer treatments and spending most of her time at home.

30 posted on 10/27/2011 11:37:33 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: steel_resolve

If he is nominated, it will convince me beyond a doubt that my voted doesn’t count.


31 posted on 10/27/2011 11:38:04 AM PDT by Terry Mross (Where is the OPPOSITION party? I'll only vote for a SECOND party.)
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To: trumandogz

That’s gonna cost him big here in South Carolina after all the fighting we had to do protecting the noble heritage of the Confederate battle flag from Leftist hate groups.

It’s a battle flab not the national flag—it ain’t got nothing to do with slavery and ours did not fight for or against slavery but to defend our homes against the Yankee invader.


32 posted on 10/27/2011 11:38:46 AM PDT by Happy Rain ( "Many of the most useful idiots of the Left are on the Right.")
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Perry = great candidate on paper. So far, that’s about it.

Even in interviews Perry is not fast on his feet and does not demonstrate an ability to intellectually explain WHY conservative governance works. He is mostly right on the issues, but his communications skills are seriously lacking.

I am still giving him a chance. His flat tax plan is vastly better than 999, and I at least have confidence Perry knows how to win elections as he has demonstrated many times in the past. He really just needs to loosen up, relax a little in front of the camera and brush up on his debate skills.

I do agree, polls mean nothing right now.


33 posted on 10/27/2011 11:39:59 AM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

No one invited me to post here?

I wish no one invited me to listen to GOP debate #3 where your Perry gave this brilliant answer.

“I think Americans just don’t know sometimes which Mitt Romney they’re dealing with. Is it the Mitt Romney that was on the side of — against the Second Amendment before he was for the Second Amendment? Was it — was before — he was before the social programs from the standpoint of — he was for standing up for Roe versus Wade before he was against first — Roe versus Wade? Him — he was for Race to the Top. He’s for Obamacare and now he’s against it. I mean, we’ll wait until tomorrow and — and — and see which Mitt Romney we’re really talking to tonight.”


34 posted on 10/27/2011 11:40:54 AM PDT by NavyCanDo
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To: Westbrook
Perry is like Romneycare, not too bad for the state but would be terrible on a federal level. The Gov. of Texas isn't as strong a position as most other states. So it's not too hard to make the case that Texas would have done OK without Perry at the helm. Basically all he had to do was stay out of the way, which he mostly did except for a few screw-ups like Gardisil and the TransTexas Corridor. But what's the use of being a politician if you can't generate some cash flow?
35 posted on 10/27/2011 11:42:30 AM PDT by dblshot (Insanity: electing the same people over and over and expecting different results.)
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To: Longbow1969
Perry = great candidate on paper. So far, that’s about it.

Misfire: Romney Ad Targets Rick Perry's Jobs Record "I think it's safe to say the Romney campaign is going for the kill with its latest attack on Rick Perry. The former Massachusetts Governor has already gotten a fair amount of mileage out of attacking his Texan rival from the left on Social Security, and from the right on immigration, but this new spot strikes at the heart of the Perry campaign's raison detre -- jobs, jobs, jobs:

The Facts --Mitt Romney's political ad

[snip]

The spot's most striking image is a tumbleweed blowing along a deserted Texas highway. That's rich. It's intended to create the impression that Rick Perry's Texas is something of a depressed ghost town. Nothing could be further from the truth. Since the recession began, desperate job seekers have flocked to Texas at a clip of roughly 1,000 people per day. And they're finding work, too. Despite a huge population influx and a bruising national recession, Texas' unemployment rate remains below the national average. How remarkable has the Lone Star State's economic performance been? Read this Political Math analysis (written by a self-professed non Perry supporter), and marvel. One telling data point:


36 posted on 10/27/2011 11:47:02 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Longbow1969
Perry = great candidate on paper. So far, that’s about it.

It is a bit more than paper...take a look at Texas.

Even in interviews Perry is not fast on his feet and does not demonstrate an ability to intellectually explain WHY conservative governance works. He is mostly right on the issues, but his communications skills are seriously lacking.

You sound exactly like the left when Ronald Reagan ran and won the Presidency.

37 posted on 10/27/2011 11:47:53 AM PDT by shield (Rev 2:9 Woe unto those who say they are Judahites and are not, but are of the syna GOG ue of Satan.)
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To: NavyCanDo

See?

You just can’t stay away.


38 posted on 10/27/2011 11:48:41 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

He’s has no lips!

As Vincent Gardenia said to Cher in “Moonstruck” when speaking about her sneaky boyfriend: “He’s got no lips, Loretta! I don’t trust a man who has no lips!”


39 posted on 10/27/2011 11:49:04 AM PDT by miss marmelstein (Let's have a Cain Mutiny!)
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To: teg_76
CW has every right to post a thread here on FR. You don't have to read it.

If Rick Perry wasn't going to be elected you and your few zealots would ignore we 3%ers but you can't because deep down you know we're right.

40 posted on 10/27/2011 11:49:16 AM PDT by normy (Don't take it personally, just take it seriously.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

“Gov. Rick Perry told a Florida television station today that he opposes the creation of a Confederate license plate in Texas.”

http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/politics/entries/2011/10/26/perry_says_he_opposes_confeder.html

“Sheila Jackson Lee Accuses Rick Perry Of ‘Fooling Around’ On Confederate Flag License Plate Issue”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/25/rick-perry-confederate-flag-license-plate-texas_n_1030698.html

How about that?

Shelia Jackson Lee demands that Rick Perry speak out against the Texas Sons of Confederate Veterans license plates and Rick Perry does exactly what he is told!

Rick Perry stands with Sheila Jackson Lee.


41 posted on 10/27/2011 11:50:51 AM PDT by trumandogz (In Rick Perry's Nanny State, the state will drive your kids to the dentist at tax payer expense)
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To: NavyCanDo

My favorite was:

Interviewer: Do you believe Obama was born in the USA?

Perry: I don’t know. He never saw my birth certificate.


42 posted on 10/27/2011 11:51:32 AM PDT by miss marmelstein (Let's have a Cain Mutiny!)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife; shield; org.whodat; cripplecreek; TADSLOS; BobL; raybbr; truthfreedom; ...
Still pinging shield for help? lol!

La Raza Rick Perry is the worst Texas has had to offer in decades. It's why he has dropped like a rock and continues to fall. Heck, at this rate he'll pass Newt and Paul on his way down within days. lol!


43 posted on 10/27/2011 11:54:30 AM PDT by South40 (Heartless since 1957)
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To: NavyCanDo
Mike Huckabee won Iowa in 2008 so his supporters did something right.

By the way, a sweater vest wearing southern preacher with a charming disposition had relentless spammers? Reminds me of another sweater vest wearing southern preacher with a charming disposition running for office this year.

44 posted on 10/27/2011 11:54:30 AM PDT by normy (Don't take it personally, just take it seriously.)
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To: miss marmelstein

How very profound.


45 posted on 10/27/2011 11:55:15 AM PDT by MEG33 (God Bless Our Military Men And Women)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

LOL! The wails.


46 posted on 10/27/2011 11:55:24 AM PDT by FryingPan101 (Perry/Palin (Just dreamin'))
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To: shield; Longbow1969
Longbow1969 You sound exactly like the left when Ronald Reagan ran and won the Presidency.

When Reagan was candidate for CA governor. The media always called him dumb and lazy. The people knew better.

47 posted on 10/27/2011 11:56:22 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: trumandogz
Rick Perry stands with Sheila Jackson Lee.

On the education front they differ:

Gov. Rick Perry said "no" to competing in "Race to the Top." Texas Knows Best How to Educate Our Students

But Rep. Shelia Jackson-Lee and her Democratic Party wanted Perry's signature so the "money would flow to our schools within days."

Gov. Perry sued for Texas' money (without Washington telling us how to spend it) -- And won! Promise Kept.

Mona Charen: NRO Beware those 'radical' ideas -- Good opinion piece on Perry and education – Reagan simplicity that works

48 posted on 10/27/2011 11:59:18 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
Thanks for posting these great pics. What a beautiful family. It's a great contrast to the ugly mockery of the Cainiacs who jump every Perry thread.

What they don't know is many people read threads without posting. Many undecided Freepers so when they see your pictures and contrast them with the ugliness of the Cainiacs, it only helps.

I will be driving to Iowa as a volunteer for Perry in January, very excited to campaign for the next President of the United States.

49 posted on 10/27/2011 12:01:23 PM PDT by normy (Don't take it personally, just take it seriously.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

I didn’t know Harold Camping was right. He just got it on the wrong days. Perry is the messiah and Red State is the new bible.


50 posted on 10/27/2011 12:01:23 PM PDT by righttackle44 (I may not be much, but I raised a U.S. Marine.)
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