Posted on 07/13/2012 9:00:22 PM PDT by techno
The complete Virgil Goode rundown:
The ten most asked questions about Virgil Goode and why he matters:
1) Who is Virgil Goode?
He is a former GOP Congressman from Virginia who was defeated in the 2010 election. He is now the presidential nominee for the Constitution Party, a third party.
2) How long has the Constitution Party been around?
About 20 years.
3) I hear that Virgil Goode is NOT yet on the Virginia presidential ballot. Will he fail to get on the ballot.
To give you some perspective, in 2004 and 2008 the Constitution Party presidential nominee was on the Virginia presidential ballot. As Goode is a resident of Virginia and a former Congressman, do you really think he would not know the ins and outs of getting on the ballot, which requires him to get 10,000 signatures with at least 400 from each congressional district. As of June 6, 2012 via the Martinsville Bulletin, a local newspaper, Goode had already collected 4000 signatures. And the article concluded that the Constitution Party had as of that date already collected enough signatures to be on the ballot in 17 states.
4) Third party presidential candidates don't normally a cause a ripple through the process. What's different about Virgil Goode?
Let's put it this way, if the presidential election were decided by popular vote, Goode wouldn't matter. But presidential elections are decided in the electoral college.
5)What do you mean Techno?
There are certain states which are called battleground or swing states in which either the Democratic presidential nominee could win but by the same token the GOP presidential nominee could prevail as well. There are ten or so states in the 2012 electoral college which could be considered battleground states based on recent presidential elections and current polling. Virginia is one of those states. And it is not out of the ordinary for the winner of a battleground state to win by a margin of less than 2%.
6) So again why is Goode important to Romney's chances to become president?
Because Goode apparently is far more popular in Virginia than any other state. A Public Policy poll (PPP) in May found that Goode would garner 5% of the vote in Virginia in the presidential election against Obama and Romney. And now a couple of days ago, Goode increased his share of the vote to 9% with Obama collected 49% of the vote and Romney 35%. Without Goode in the mix it would be Obama 50% and Romney 42%. And for those not schooled in the electoral college, the winner of the popular vote in the presidential race in Virgina earns Virginia's 13 electoral votes in 2012. And that now appears to be Obama and not Romney.
7) Are you saying Techno that Goode is taking away way more voters away from Romney than he is Obama?
Exactly, that is what I am saying, But I am NOT the only one saying that. Local Virginia pundits are saying that as well. And PPP in its summary of the poll found that too. If you don't believe me, go over to the PPP web site and read it for yourself.
8)Techno, I'm lazy. I don't want to go over to PPP and read their s*it. Could you give me a brief synopsis?
Alright brother and sister. Under the Obama--Romney--Goode scenario in Virginia here is how the vote breaks down in four demographics: very conservative voters, somewhat conservative voters, Republicans and independents:
----------------------OBAMA--------ROMNEY-----GOODE
VERY CONSERVATIVE-------7-----------84----------7
SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE---19----------55----------14
REPUBLICANS-------------9-----------78----------9
INDEPENDENTS------------45----------26----------17
It doesn't take a genius to figure out Goode hurts Romney way more than he hurts Obama.
9) But don't third party bids eventually fizzle out?
Yes, that is the rule of thumb nationally. But in Virginia Goode ahs gained 4% in support since May and he's not even on the Virginia ballot yet. Even if he drops back to his previous level of support of 5% that would still be enough to sink Romney's ship in Virginia in a close contest.
10) Techno, could you explain why Virginia is so important?
It comes down to the number of electoral votes (EV) in the electoral college. The general consensus among the folks who do it for a living is that President Obama currently sits at 247 EV when you include all the safe blue states and those states leaning to Obama (likely to win). If Obama wins VA, a battleground state, that takes him to 260 EV and therefore only needs 10 more EV to hit the 270 EV threshold to win re-election. And here are the four swing states which Obama must win these 10 votes again based on a consensus of experts: Iowa (6), NH(4), Nevada (6) and Colorado (9). Obama is currently enjoying a small margin in the polls in every state but Iowa and is running neck and neck with Romney there.
Of course the dynamic of the race could shift in the next three months or so but it appears Obama has the edge in winning Colorado and its 9 EV. If he did that he would reach 269 EV and would only need to win one of the remaining three states to get a second term.
As for Mitt Romney if he loses Virginia, assuming he wins the other huge 4 swing states of Ohio, NC, Indiana and Florida and reaches 253 EV, Romney would be forced to win Colorado to have any chance of winning the presidency in the electoral college. The best he could hope for otherwise is a tie (269-269) in which case the contest goes to the House of Representatives.
One other element to consider: In 2008 President Obama won 1 EV in Nebraska who allots it EV by whoever wins the congressional district. Obama actually won this district (Omaha) by 9.77% which is a pretty hefty margin. If Obama could again win this district and on top of it win Virginia and Colorado that would take him to 270 EV on the button and Romney would be denied regardless of what he did in Iowa, NH and Nevada.
A final note: If Romney can win Virginia with Ohio, NC, Indiana and Florida he would then be at 266 EV. He would then not be forced to win Colorado but would only have to be victorious in Iowa to become the new president.
And that folks is why Team Obama has had many sleepless nights over the past 3 years. Virgil Goode is a godsend for Obama and his team.
Maybe stupid is not the right word. How about immature and lacking a sense of reality. Maybe even living in a bubble, unaware of the realities of life. A lot of that going around lately.
I do this IRL with people who voted McCain here in Texas.
The people who post “Obambi thanks you” crap will be occasionally pinged to threads on homosexual activism or abortion and I will point out both that they got what they personally wanted...and that they set the rules for this. For good measure I will ping the mods, and let them make the call as to whether it amounts to stalking.
I did this for a bit with boobs who not only insisted there was no real estate bubble about to burst, but got nasty on that one.
I guess I have a sin problem with “I told you so”s.
Slick Willardbot logic... A vote for a pro-Constitutional Conservative is a vote for a Communist. Right.
I will follow the rules on not doing harsh smackdown on those that are frightened into voting one way or the other.
Talk about difficult tasks...
/johnny
Math is lost on Onanists. By definition, they can’t beyond one.
I regret my vote for McCain in 2008 after driving over 4,000 miles in four weeks demonstrating against him in the primaries because of his amnesty stance, support of cap and trade, etc. The GOP nominated its maverick to be the standard bearer. I had to hold my nose to vote for the bastard. And now I will be doing the same thing again.
If Romney loses, I see a third party arising before the next election. The tea party movement will be the vehicle. If you think that McConnell, Boehner, and Cantor are going to make any major changes like reducing spending if the GOP controls Congress and the WH, you are delusional. Dems and Reps are just two wings of the same party.
“Virgil detests Obama.”
No he doesn’t. His running only increases the chances of Obama taking Virginia. He knows this. He stands a snowball’s chance in hades of winning but will run anyway so that Obama can win...it’s really simple to understand.
No, non-looneytune logic. A vote for a candidate that will receive under 1% of the vote is a vote for a Communist.
Er, that was the point. They were major parties; they aren't any more.
Your a real Rambo on that keyboard.
probably would have been better if I added “count” after ‘can’t’
Actually one still is. The Democratic-Republican party dropped the Republican from their name. They are running Obama in 2012.
You seem to be more worried about winning than your alleged principles.
/johnny
Romney is far from perfect in my mind, but Romney does not want to destroy this country.
Obama DOES want to destroy this country.
God helps those who help themselves, the worst thing that can happen to our Country is four more years of Obama!
I think, in the parable of the Good Samaritan, Jesus made clear that good things can be done by those who do not share our faith, and that, often, those who do share our faith come up wanting.
What do you think that parable was about, if not a stern warning not to allow bigotry and religious bias to poison our thinking?
Yes, Mitt Romney has flip flopped, but he seems to have ended up on our side now.
Is there ANY chance that Obama will agree with us, ever, on anything important?
Those who vote against Romney on “religious” or “moral” grounds are in for a good scolding, as Jesus was not very tolerant of the Pharisees, in his time.
Baloney.
Simply not true; unless you mean to assert that my single vote does not count.
But if my single vote does not count, then why do you care who I give it to?
Your argument is actually self-destructive.
I tell you what. Prove me wrong in November. Take ten grand, go to London, Ladbrookes would take the action. Bet that amount on any third party candidate getting more than 3% of the vote. After you win millions, I will gladly tip my hat to you. Thou I have a hunch you will be ten grand light if you do.
That's the problem with defending Willard's candidacy. You have to toss out those nasty things like morality (or ethics, honesty, character, et al) in order to justify him.
I'll be on firm ground there. Scoldings run off my back like water off a duck's back.
Just ask anyone that's been here for a while.
Scold away.
Heck of a reason to vote for someone, or you'll get scolded.
/johnny
Virgil Goode has as much right to run for President as anyone else. If people vote for him, then they have not wasted a vote, but rather, exercised their right to vote for someone who holds similar views.
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