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Registered and Likely voter fundamentals point to big Election night for Republicans
coachisright.com ^ | SEPTEMBER 5TH, 2012 | Derrick Hollenbeck, staff writer

Posted on 09/05/2012 6:54:04 AM PDT by jmaroneps37

“..first time history asking the question, Gallup polling has found that more registered voters favor the Republicans than the Democrats. Although the difference is just 44/43, this represents an 11 point drop in favorability for the “Democrat brand” since 2008.

It is the Democrats worst pre convention rating since 1992. Moreover, in the years since Barack Obama took office the Party identification of registered voters has shown a steep drop for the Democrats. At their highest level the Democrats surpassed Republicans by an eye popping 53/34.

Now Gallup’s survey of those claiming to be “registered voters” shows that gap has all been wiped away. Counting “leaners” it is now just 44/43 in favor of the Democrats.

Since Obama’s election Democrats have fallen 24 points in overall favorability but among Independents Democrats have slide from 47% to 35% and now stand 3 points below Republicans.

How this translates to likely voter self-identify to both Parties is explained by a newly released survey by Rasmussen.

Rasmussen reports that more registered likely voters self-identify as Republicans, (37.6%) than at any time in the brief time they have been asking the question. This gives the GOP a 4.3 point lead over the Democrats who are now less than a point above their historic low.

These numbers have not been inconsequential in the past.

At the time of the Republican’s 2010 landslide, that saw them win 63 seats, Republican self- identification was a scant 1.3 points higher than the Democrats. Fundamentals such as these have always been positive signs for the electoral chances of the Party enjoying them.

“..Clearly more Americans are registering as Republicans, but an examination of the registration patterns in the swing state of Florida helps explain how Republicans have leapfrogged to the top…

(Excerpt) Read more at coachisright.com ...


TOPICS: Government; Politics; Religion; Society
KEYWORDS: gallup; newrepublicans
There is doubt that this bump in registered Republicans comes from the registration drives of various Catholic groups around the country.
1 posted on 09/05/2012 6:54:14 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
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To: jmaroneps37
I'm thinking that the polls are way off.

Polling yes for Obama for fear of being viewed as racist, voting Romney/Paul in the privacy of the voting booth.

2 posted on 09/05/2012 7:00:17 AM PDT by TexasCajun
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To: jmaroneps37

I think the Dems are in way,way worse shape than this.


3 posted on 09/05/2012 7:05:09 AM PDT by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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To: jmaroneps37

In the Presidential race the key to all this self identification regarding political leanings really comes down to how the numbers breakout in a few key states. Since we don’t elect Presidents by popular vote it becomes how a few of the swing states vote. In the other races it may be a very positive for picking up seats in the Congress and at the local/state level.


4 posted on 09/05/2012 7:08:21 AM PDT by deport
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To: TexasCajun
Obama for fear of being viewed as racist, voting Romney/Paul in the privacy of the voting booth.

Yeah, I hear Rush talk about that a lot. Obviously they're RINO types. I live in Portland, Maine and if somebody on the street asked me if I liked Obama I would tell them the truth. I have absolutely no reason to fear being called a racist.

Imagine how timid a person must be to actually feel they have to lie to a stranger over the phone when being polled.

5 posted on 09/05/2012 7:08:44 AM PDT by tsowellfan (Voting for Obama/Biden is like purposely swallowing two tapeworms)
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To: jmaroneps37

“It is the Democrats worst pre convention rating since 1992...”

Yeah...and that worked out REAL GOOD for the RinoCracy as I recall....


6 posted on 09/05/2012 7:08:59 AM PDT by mo (If you understand, no explanation is needed. If you don't understand, no explanation is possible.)
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To: deport
In the Presidential race the key to all this self identification regarding political leanings really comes down to how the numbers breakout in a few key states. Since we don’t elect Presidents by popular vote it becomes how a few of the swing states vote. In the other races it may be a very positive for picking up seats in the Congress and at the local/state level.

VERY GOOD points!

7 posted on 09/05/2012 7:10:48 AM PDT by tsowellfan (Voting for Obama/Biden is like purposely swallowing two tapeworms)
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To: DarthVader

> I think the Dems are in way,way worse shape than this.

The DemonRAT party, the party of Marx, Che and Mao, of abortion murder, deviant sex, hatred of Christians, hatred of Jews, hatred of the middle class, and identity politics, has painted itself into a corner.

What remains to be seen is how many Americans have been brainwashed into that corner.


8 posted on 09/05/2012 7:12:25 AM PDT by Westbrook (Children do not divide your love, they multiply it.)
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To: tsowellfan
My wife and I make it a point to lie to any pollsters who call (we have had three calls this year).

In my house "We love Obama", as far as the pollsters go.

Why make the guy work harder to win if he thinks he has it locked up, after all the man has a golf game to work on.

9 posted on 09/05/2012 7:22:41 AM PDT by Michael.SF. (Romney was right about the Olympics, but neither the Brits or the Dems will admit it.)
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To: Michael.SF.
Why make the guy work harder to win if he thinks he has it locked up, after all the man has a golf game to work on.

Good idea!

10 posted on 09/05/2012 7:25:09 AM PDT by tsowellfan (Voting for Obama/Biden is like purposely swallowing two tapeworms)
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To: jmaroneps37

Trapped animals in a corner come out fighting.

The only numbers I trust are the ones on Nov 2.


11 posted on 09/05/2012 7:28:31 AM PDT by sf4dubya (I rebelled against my parents by becoming a conservative. REJECT THEN STOP SOCIALISM THIS NOV!)
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To: deport

I thought Registered opused?


12 posted on 09/05/2012 7:29:43 AM PDT by KC Burke (Plain Conservative opinions and common sense correction for thirteen years.)
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To: sf4dubya

November 6th is election day. : )
Or were you trying a disinformation campaign?


13 posted on 09/05/2012 7:31:40 AM PDT by Josa
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To: jmaroneps37

I know plenty of people who voted for (or supported) Obama in 2008, who now are avid Romney supporters or have moved into the undecided group.

I do not know of a single McCain voter who now supports Obama or is undecided. No a one.


14 posted on 09/05/2012 7:33:50 AM PDT by kidd
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To: Michael.SF.
My wife and I make it a point to lie to any pollsters who call (we have had three calls this year).

You're in good company - a lot of people lie to pollsters. What matters is whether that proportion has changed this year, and we have no valid way of answering that question without in-depth interviews, until election day.

15 posted on 09/05/2012 7:40:50 AM PDT by Pollster1 (Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: tsowellfan
Yeah, I hear Rush talk about that a lot. Obviously they're RINO types. I live in Portland, Maine and if somebody on the street asked me if I liked Obama I would tell them the truth. I have absolutely no reason to fear being called a racist.

Living in Cook County Illinois I can say that if you put a GOP bumper sticker on you car the chances of getting vandalized go way up. Yard signs for GOP candidates are usually pulled out, although coating them with Vaseline gets some interesting reactions. Would I tell some anonymous person on the phone who I'm going to vote for? Well I surely would think twice about it. I certainly wouldn't for any polling outfit I hadn't known about beforehand.
16 posted on 09/05/2012 7:41:26 AM PDT by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: DarthVader
I think the Dems are in way,way worse shape than this.

Please don't take that for granted. The Dems have a huge lead among dead voters, fictional voters, and ballot miscounts when SEIU decides to intervene. We need such a large margin that the Dems cannot win, even with an extraordinary level of fraud.

17 posted on 09/05/2012 7:43:11 AM PDT by Pollster1 (Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: Pollster1

We are ready for this in my state.


18 posted on 09/05/2012 7:46:01 AM PDT by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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To: GonzoGOP

I wonder how a caustic product like Stripeze would work instead of vaseline? It might smear/melt the colors on the sign, though


19 posted on 09/05/2012 7:46:54 AM PDT by stickywillie (a corrupt parallel universe exists beside our wonderful Constitution)
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To: jmaroneps37

The Democrats should have as their slogan: We are bringing out our dead.

Every live Republican better show up to vote with all their like-minded family and friends.


20 posted on 09/05/2012 7:48:37 AM PDT by txrefugee
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To: sf4dubya

The only numbers I trust are the ones on Nov 2.

I have no probablem with you reporting on 2 November, but please stay until 6 November to vote. I am glad that you didn’t say 10 November...lol.


21 posted on 09/05/2012 7:59:43 AM PDT by napscoordinator (Paul Ryan/Rick Santorum 2012....That would be the best scenario ever.)
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To: Michael.SF.

I’ve been doing that for years. I hate that we have “leaders” who poll everything to decide what to do. My choices for rebellion are: 1) Refuse to answer any questions, which is what I usually do, or 2) Lie like a rug. I get a lot of satisfaction from that one.


22 posted on 09/05/2012 8:07:22 AM PDT by Cyber Liberty (Obama considers the Third World morally superior to the United States.)
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To: mo

No Ross this year, barry is stinking up the polls and there is no help in sight


23 posted on 09/05/2012 8:10:09 AM PDT by italianquaker ( 17 percent of the tea partiers support barry obama, the fox poll said so lol)
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To: tsowellfan
Imagine how timid a person must be to actually feel they have to lie to a stranger over the phone when being polled.

...and brainwashed with political correctness.

I suspect there are a lot of Hollywood types who would never disparage Obama for fear of being ostracized from their peers.

24 posted on 09/05/2012 9:02:42 AM PDT by TexasCajun
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