Registered and Likely voter fundamentals point to big Election night for Republicans

coachisright.com ^ | SEPTEMBER 5TH, 2012 | Derrick Hollenbeck, staff writer

[jmaroneps37]

“..first time history asking the question, Gallup polling has found that more registered voters favor the Republicans than the Democrats. Although the difference is just 44/43, this represents an 11 point drop in favorability for the “Democrat brand” since 2008.

It is the Democrats worst pre convention rating since 1992. Moreover, in the years since Barack Obama took office the Party identification of registered voters has shown a steep drop for the Democrats. At their highest level the Democrats surpassed Republicans by an eye popping 53/34.

Now Gallup’s survey of those claiming to be “registered voters” shows that gap has all been wiped away. Counting “leaners” it is now just 44/43 in favor of the Democrats.

Since Obama’s election Democrats have fallen 24 points in overall favorability but among Independents Democrats have slide from 47% to 35% and now stand 3 points below Republicans.

How this translates to likely voter self-identify to both Parties is explained by a newly released survey by Rasmussen.

Rasmussen reports that more registered likely voters self-identify as Republicans, (37.6%) than at any time in the brief time they have been asking the question. This gives the GOP a 4.3 point lead over the Democrats who are now less than a point above their historic low.

These numbers have not been inconsequential in the past.

At the time of the Republican’s 2010 landslide, that saw them win 63 seats, Republican self- identification was a scant 1.3 points higher than the Democrats. Fundamentals such as these have always been positive signs for the electoral chances of the Party enjoying them.

“..Clearly more Americans are registering as Republicans, but an examination of the registration patterns in the swing state of Florida helps explain how Republicans have leapfrogged to the top…

[napscoordinator]

The only numbers I trust are the ones on Nov 2.

I have no probablem with you reporting on 2 November, but please stay until 6 November to vote. I am glad that you didn’t say 10 November...lol.

[Cyber Liberty]

I’ve been doing that for years. I hate that we have “leaders” who poll everything to decide what to do. My choices for rebellion are: 1) Refuse to answer any questions, which is what I usually do, or 2) Lie like a rug. I get a lot of satisfaction from that one.

[italianquaker]

No Ross this year, barry is stinking up the polls and there is no help in sight

[TexasCajun]

Imagine how timid a person must be to actually feel they have to lie to a stranger over the phone when being polled.

...and brainwashed with political correctness.

I suspect there are a lot of Hollywood types who would never disparage Obama for fear of being ostracized from their peers.