Skip to comments.Website That Filters Party Bias Out of Presidential Polls has Romney Up 5-11% Nationally
Posted on 09/24/2012 9:41:17 AM PDT by Reaganite Republican
Rasmussen Reports has long been the most credible of polling agencies- the record speaks for itself. Part of this famed accuracy springs from the fact that as they are not a part of the liberal media establishment in this country, and also because Rasmussen extrapolates polling data from only those intending to vote in November... not merely 'registered voters' or 'adults' as so many others do, a technique that consistently distorts results to the political left.
Obviously, this means talking to only people likely to affect the upcoming election, producing accurate predictions that skewing MSM spinmeisters can never hope to match... because they're not even trying to do so.
But yet another common distortion to political polling data has to do with warped party-bias: i.e., where GW Bush won on heavy GOP turnout in an election with a 50/50 party split among voters, the motivation Obama brought to the Left in '08 meant a far-from-usual +7% Democratic advantage at the polls.
Alas, a recent CBS poll result that showed the president up by three points was accomplished by utilizing a highly-improbable-in-reality +13% Democrat advantage in turnout... no agenda there, eh.
It gets worse, Gallup was bullied by Axelrod for disclosing unkind realities, and the polling organization is directly employed by the White House as a 'consultant'... paid for with your tax dollars.
In a microcosm of the larger state-run MSM media as a whole, Rasmussen's generally-more-favorable to Republicans data has them often labeled by disingenuous 'progressives' as biased and 'a tool of the RNC'... when in reality, they -like Fox- are the only ones not licking Dear Leader's rear-end, and thus appear downright reactionary when awash in a sea of Leftist hacks.
So, now a new website has popped up that re-injects survey data from the major (biased) polls into the more-reality-bound Rasmussen model, and lo-and-behold Mitt Romney comes out as much as 11 points up in major nationwide polls... how bout that:
UnSkewed Polling Data
Monday, September 24, 2012 4:59:25 PM
|UnSkewed Avg.||9/4 - 9/20||--||--||44.0||51.8||Romney +7.8|
|Reason/Rupe||9/13 - 9/17||787 LV||4.3||45.0||52.0||Romney +7|
|Reuters/Ipsos||9/12 - 9/20||1437 LV||2.9||44.0||54.0||Romney +10|
|NBC News/WSJ||9/12 - 9/16||736 LV||3.6||44.0||51.0||Romney +7|
|Monmouth Univ.||9/13 - 9/16||1344 LV||2.5||45.0||50.0||Romney +5|
|QStarNews||9/10 - 9/15||2075||3.0||44.0||55.0||Romney +11|
|NY Times/CBS News||9/8 - 9/12||1162 LV||3.0||44.0||51.0||Romney +7|
|Democracy Corps||9/8 - 9/12||1000 LV||3.1||43.0||52.0||Romney +8|
|Fox News||9/9 - 9/11||1056 LV||3.0||45.0||48.0||Romney +3|
|Wash. Post/ABC News||9/7 - 9/9||826 LV||4.0||45.0||52.0||Romney +7|
|CNN/ORC||9/7 - 9/9||875 RV||3.5||45.0||53.0||Romney +8|
|IBD/CSM/TIPP||9/4 - 9/9||808 RV||3.5||41.0||50.0||Romney +9|
|ARG||9/4 - 9/6||1200 LV||3.0||43.0||53.0||Romney +10|
*** PING ***
Oh Lord, please let it be so.
and all that has to happen to prove this true is for the electorate to turn out in massive numbers....O MUST be defeated
Why are the results time-stamped for 5 pm today?
Thanks for the post. I just linked to the article on FB. This should make some heads explode.
I suspect that is close to the truth. I live in a big Yellow Dog Democrat area where Dems have a huge registration advantage and large numbers of them are in unions.
That being said, you rarely hear a good word being said about Obama, rarely see a yard sign or even a bumper sticker. I think a lot of these folks are keeping their mouths shut to keep the shop steward off their backs, but at the end of the day they are quietly gonna vote Romney.
A lot of it frankly is they feel Obama is siding with blacks against everyone else in a potential race war.
Good info. Thanks.
I hope they are right. I mean if the conservatives can get fired up about a chicken sandwich and bullying a conservative & religious business man . . . I can’t imagine how fired up they will be come November 6th. I know I am. I’d crawl over hot coals or broken glass to vote for R/R to oust O.
This site seems to have taken the propaganda out of it.
That is what we all know is happening, the polls, except for one or two, are propaganda machines owned and skewed to the dark side.
Unfortunately the chart does not include the Gold Standard Rasmussen who has it at Obama +1 over Romney today.
Unskewed is using Rassmussen’s latest party ID numbers to re-weight the other polls. The cautionary note I would throw in there s that Rass has GOP identification at an all-time high, which may be possible, but might not be the best choice for a “planning” number, since it is subject to change. Still, it wouldn’t surprise me that Romney is +5 among actual likely voters, and it is possible that the margin is going to be as high as +8 or more.
It might be interesting to see what Rass’ own likely voter model is, compared to the most recent party ID numbers.
What was party ID ratios in 2010? I’m sure I’ve seen it recently but with all the poll threads and articles, I’ve forgotten.
The only thing I really worry about is the website getting the math right. They are correct that Rasmussen has been consistently more accurate over the years THROUGHOUT the election. For good or ill, then simply report the data.
Ras uses primarily party affiliation polling with a huge database of about 15,000 respondents, and that gives him a 37% republican population with a 4% advantage over the democrats, so it’s approximately 37, 33, 30 (independents).
He also, I read just the other day, adjusts those numbers somewhat with data from previous elections (2010, 2008, 2006, 2004?). I haven’t found what the adjustments are, but my take is that it still results in a republican advantage.
It’s the adjustment that I worry about with the reaganite website. Perhaps he knows what it is.
-—— I suspect that is close to the truth. I live in a big Yellow Dog Democrat area where Dems have a huge registration advantage and large numbers of them are in unions.
That being said, you rarely hear a good word being said about Obama, rarely see a yard sign or even a bumper sticker. I think a lot of these folks are keeping their mouths shut to keep the shop steward off their backs, but at the end of the day they are quietly gonna vote Romney.——
My conclusion as well. I visited Newton, MA (top 5 moonbat town/city), last week, and was amazed at the lack of Obama stickers. I saw ONE, and two Romney stickers. In ‘08, Newton was awash in Zero stickers. VERY telling.
The dems and msm have to jimmy the poll mumbers so the dems can use all the dead peoples names,why else do they fight the photo ID laws.
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