Posted on 09/24/2012 9:41:17 AM PDT by Reaganite Republican
Rasmussen Reports has long been the most credible of polling agencies- the record speaks for itself. Part of this famed accuracy springs from the fact that as they are not a part of the liberal media establishment in this country, and also because Rasmussen extrapolates polling data from only those intending to vote in November... not merely 'registered voters' or 'adults' as so many others do, a technique that consistently distorts results to the political left.
Obviously, this means talking to only people likely to affect the upcoming election, producing accurate predictions that skewing MSM spinmeisters can never hope to match... because they're not even trying to do so.
But yet another common distortion to political polling data has to do with warped party-bias: i.e., where GW Bush won on heavy GOP turnout in an election with a 50/50 party split among voters, the motivation Obama brought to the Left in '08 meant a far-from-usual +7% Democratic advantage at the polls.
Alas, a recent CBS poll result that showed the president up by three points was accomplished by utilizing a highly-improbable-in-reality +13% Democrat advantage in turnout... no agenda there, eh.
It gets worse, Gallup was bullied by Axelrod for disclosing unkind realities, and the polling organization is directly employed by the White House as a 'consultant'... paid for with your tax dollars.
In a microcosm of the larger state-run MSM media as a whole, Rasmussen's generally-more-favorable to Republicans data has them often labeled by disingenuous 'progressives' as biased and 'a tool of the RNC'... when in reality, they -like Fox- are the only ones not licking Dear Leader's rear-end, and thus appear downright reactionary when awash in a sea of Leftist hacks.
So, now a new website has popped up that re-injects survey data from the major (biased) polls into the more-reality-bound Rasmussen model, and lo-and-behold Mitt Romney comes out as much as 11 points up in major nationwide polls... how bout that:
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UnSkewed Polling Data
Monday, September 24, 2012 4:59:25 PM |
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| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Obama(D) | Romney(R) | Spread |
| UnSkewed Avg. | 9/4 - 9/20 | -- | -- | 44.0 | 51.8 | Romney +7.8 |
| Reason/Rupe | 9/13 - 9/17 | 787 LV | 4.3 | 45.0 | 52.0 | Romney +7 |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 9/12 - 9/20 | 1437 LV | 2.9 | 44.0 | 54.0 | Romney +10 |
| NBC News/WSJ | 9/12 - 9/16 | 736 LV | 3.6 | 44.0 | 51.0 | Romney +7 |
| Monmouth Univ. | 9/13 - 9/16 | 1344 LV | 2.5 | 45.0 | 50.0 | Romney +5 |
| QStarNews | 9/10 - 9/15 | 2075 | 3.0 | 44.0 | 55.0 | Romney +11 |
| NY Times/CBS News | 9/8 - 9/12 | 1162 LV | 3.0 | 44.0 | 51.0 | Romney +7 |
| Democracy Corps | 9/8 - 9/12 | 1000 LV | 3.1 | 43.0 | 52.0 | Romney +8 |
| Fox News | 9/9 - 9/11 | 1056 LV | 3.0 | 45.0 | 48.0 | Romney +3 |
| Wash. Post/ABC News | 9/7 - 9/9 | 826 LV | 4.0 | 45.0 | 52.0 | Romney +7 |
| CNN/ORC | 9/7 - 9/9 | 875 RV | 3.5 | 45.0 | 53.0 | Romney +8 |
| IBD/CSM/TIPP | 9/4 - 9/9 | 808 RV | 3.5 | 41.0 | 50.0 | Romney +9 |
| ARG | 9/4 - 9/6 | 1200 LV | 3.0 | 43.0 | 53.0 | Romney +10 |
*** PING ***
Oh Lord, please let it be so.
and all that has to happen to prove this true is for the electorate to turn out in massive numbers....O MUST be defeated
Why are the results time-stamped for 5 pm today?
Thanks for the post. I just linked to the article on FB. This should make some heads explode.
I suspect that is close to the truth. I live in a big Yellow Dog Democrat area where Dems have a huge registration advantage and large numbers of them are in unions.
That being said, you rarely hear a good word being said about Obama, rarely see a yard sign or even a bumper sticker. I think a lot of these folks are keeping their mouths shut to keep the shop steward off their backs, but at the end of the day they are quietly gonna vote Romney.
A lot of it frankly is they feel Obama is siding with blacks against everyone else in a potential race war.
Good info. Thanks.
I hope they are right. I mean if the conservatives can get fired up about a chicken sandwich and bullying a conservative & religious business man . . . I can’t imagine how fired up they will be come November 6th. I know I am. I’d crawl over hot coals or broken glass to vote for R/R to oust O.
Enlightening, innit?
This site seems to have taken the propaganda out of it.
That is what we all know is happening, the polls, except for one or two, are propaganda machines owned and skewed to the dark side.
Unfortunately the chart does not include the Gold Standard Rasmussen who has it at Obama +1 over Romney today.
Unskewed is using Rassmussen’s latest party ID numbers to re-weight the other polls. The cautionary note I would throw in there s that Rass has GOP identification at an all-time high, which may be possible, but might not be the best choice for a “planning” number, since it is subject to change. Still, it wouldn’t surprise me that Romney is +5 among actual likely voters, and it is possible that the margin is going to be as high as +8 or more.
It might be interesting to see what Rass’ own likely voter model is, compared to the most recent party ID numbers.
What was party ID ratios in 2010? I’m sure I’ve seen it recently but with all the poll threads and articles, I’ve forgotten.
The only thing I really worry about is the website getting the math right. They are correct that Rasmussen has been consistently more accurate over the years THROUGHOUT the election. For good or ill, then simply report the data.
Ras uses primarily party affiliation polling with a huge database of about 15,000 respondents, and that gives him a 37% republican population with a 4% advantage over the democrats, so it’s approximately 37, 33, 30 (independents).
He also, I read just the other day, adjusts those numbers somewhat with data from previous elections (2010, 2008, 2006, 2004?). I haven’t found what the adjustments are, but my take is that it still results in a republican advantage.
It’s the adjustment that I worry about with the reaganite website. Perhaps he knows what it is.
-—— I suspect that is close to the truth. I live in a big Yellow Dog Democrat area where Dems have a huge registration advantage and large numbers of them are in unions.
That being said, you rarely hear a good word being said about Obama, rarely see a yard sign or even a bumper sticker. I think a lot of these folks are keeping their mouths shut to keep the shop steward off their backs, but at the end of the day they are quietly gonna vote Romney.——
My conclusion as well. I visited Newton, MA (top 5 moonbat town/city), last week, and was amazed at the lack of Obama stickers. I saw ONE, and two Romney stickers. In ‘08, Newton was awash in Zero stickers. VERY telling.
The dems and msm have to jimmy the poll mumbers so the dems can use all the dead peoples names,why else do they fight the photo ID laws.
I think I saw elsewhere that 2008 was D+7 and 2010 was even in terms of turnout, though the latter is inferred since they don’t have the degree of exit polling they would have in a Presidential election year.
For various reasons, many stated here, I have always felt that Romney support was under reported by 10% to 15%. This article confirms it. Romney is way ahead and will win in a landslide.
So...if this is accurate you can be sure that Zero knows that his days are numbered. What would you say the odds are that a “national crisis” is in the offing that will require Zero to, “For the safety of the people,” call off the November election?
Personally, I put the odds at more than 50/50 that voting will be “postponed.”
-—— . I can’t imagine how fired up they will be come November 6th. I know I am. I’d crawl over hot coals or broken glass to vote for R/R to oust O. -——
I’ve been waiting four years for this day. Broken glass and kneecaps won’t stop me.
Wow, even in 2010. Seems I recall over 600+ R’s were elected national and statewide in 2010. IF it was even, we had a LOT of I’s and even some Dem’s voting R in 2010.
Tea Party sure has been quiet this year. No Tea Party Express, certainly not three tours like there was in ‘08.
Wonder why?
or in the case of the Gallup polling...been threatened by Hack-elrod....
It’s going to a tsunami...with many dems staying home it will help the downticket GOP candidates particularly for Senate.
It might be interesting to see what Rass’ own likely voter model is, compared to the most recent party ID numbers.
+++++++++++++
Indeed it would. I’ve been poking Freeperville for weeks trying to learn about the Raz Turnout Model. I keep hoping some Freeper out there actually has the data.
So far, no luck.
There will be a Democratic advantage because of the illegals, bums, dead people, and cheating liars that stuff ballots and vote multiple times.
You are dreaming if you don’t think the Dems will have at least 3-5% advantage with their cheating.
“Personally, I put the odds at more than 50/50 that voting will be “postponed.”
All that would do is ensure further chaos, a power vacuum, and a leadership black hole as per the Constitution his Presidency turns into a pumpkin on Jan. 20.”
Very true - IF - the courts give it their OK. The Constitution has already been ignored by this junta. The MSM will applaud such a move.
“Personally, I put the odds at more than 50/50 that voting will be “postponed.”
All that would do is ensure further chaos, a power vacuum, and a leadership black hole as per the Constitution his Presidency turns into a pumpkin on Jan. 20.”
Very true - UNLESS - the courts give it their OK. The Constitution has already been ignored by this junta. The MSM will applaud such a move.
ping
Even here in the deep, deep blue South SF Bay Area, my bumper sticker count as of today is 3 Romney and only 1 Obama. Last election, it seemed that every other car was sporting an Obama 2008 sticker and there were very few, if any, McCain stickers. That's not the case this time around.
All that would do is ensure further chaos, a power vacuum, and a leadership black hole as per the Constitution his Presidency turns into a pumpkin on Jan. 20.”
. . . . . . . . . . . . .
“Very true - IF - the courts give it their OK. The Constitution has already been ignored by this junta. The MSM will applaud such a move.”
Deeply disturbing- yet rings true. The 1.2B DHS ammo buy should be enough to frighten anyone
“I’ve been poking Freeperville for weeks trying to learn about the Raz Turnout Model. I keep hoping some Freeper out there actually has the data. So far, no luck.”
I have seen the Rasmussen “weighting model” but only for this past June. Dem weighting ran from +3 to +14 for the 30 days in June, jumping around. Not sure how Rasmussen comes up with that. It was on an FR thread.
“Even here in the deep, deep blue South SF Bay Area, my bumper sticker count as of today is 3 Romney and only 1 Obama. Last election, it seemed that every other car was sporting an Obama 2008 sticker and there were very few, if any, McCain stickers. That’s not the case this time around.”
I hope that is not false hope you are interpreting. could the dearth of BO bumper stickers be because people are embarrassed to be seen supporting the loser-in-chief?
Pray for America that after 4 years, BHO and company can be assigned to the trash can of history.
While that's certainly possible, the enthusiasm of 2008 for Obama (almost like he was the Second Coming) doesn't seem to be evident this time around. Perhaps people are embarrassed but will vote for him anyway. Hopefully, they'll just stay home.
“Unskewed is using Rassmussen’s latest party ID numbers to re-weight the other polls.”
So why don’t Rassmussen’s polls show the same thing?
Because Rassmussen’s formula apparently accounts for more than just current party ID.
I’d take Unskewed as a “best case scenario” for the Republican side. It’s better to plan for worst case scenarios — if you are still winning even under the worst case scenario, then you’re going to win, after all.
Everybody is lying and Romney is up by 10, or I must adjust my perception of reality. Nah, everybody’s lying!
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