Skip to comments.Obama has to draw an “inside straight” to win but the cards just aren’t there
Posted on 09/27/2012 6:48:10 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
".. unskewed polls show Romney leading by 7.8 points.. good reason.
Barack Obama is not winning any group he lost in 2008; not doing better with any group he won and not closing the gap with any group he lost.
Barack Obama appears to need three cards for an inside straight to win reelection.
He has the two end cards, his Media Cheerleaders .and the power of incumbency at the other. Filling in the cards between them to gain a winning hand looks to be beyond Obamas reach.
Here are the cards he needs to fill in his inside straight.
The female vote: he won this group by 13 points in 2008 and now the Battleground Poll (BP) tells us he is trailing with White Women who will make up at least 39% of the Female vote by 9 points.
A nine point lead among the first 39% makes getting to a 50/50 tie a tough job and duplicating a final tally lead of 13 points almost impossible. Hes not pulling this card.
The Jewish vote card was one that helped him in 2008. While only 2% of the vote, Jews who are a canary in the coal mine indicator gave him 78% of their vote.
No Democrat has ever won the presidency while getting less than 68% of the Jewish vote. Obama is now at 59% with little chance of improving- not much chance of pulling this card.
The Hispanic vote card: In 2008 Obama got 67% of the Hispanic vote. BP reports Romney is getting 40% of the Hispanic vote; so this is another card he wont pull.
African American card: Black ministers are telling their congregations not vote at all.
young vote : Obama got 66%.. getting 61%.. no help..
(Excerpt) Read more at coachisright.com ...
“.. unskewed polls show Romney leading by 7.8 points.. good reason.
As much as I would like to buy the Romney by 7.8 story I don’t. I think this guy is using something like an R+4 model vs Rasmussen’s D+2. That’s a 6 point difference and explains most of the difference between the Raz poll and the “Unskewed” poll.
I think Rasmussen is right and using his D+2 model puts the average of all the bogus polls in the range of a dead heat race.
I think that is where the race stands right now. I still give the edge to Romney because the incumbent Obama can’t seem to break the 50% nut.
Probably could add in a few ambassadors (still living) that voted for him in 08 will not be voting for him this time...
Taxes are now higher in America than in Cuba!
It is even mucho easier now to start a business in Red China!
How can a minority or a woman or anyone else with a dream start and run a business today with Obama promising to raise taxes and with the employee costs of Obamacare eliminating and possibility of profits, new hiring and growth.
Blacks in the 1800s actually had created whole thriving towns and profitable businesses; but today they cannot do that under the “first black president/golfer”.
Unskewed is using Rassmussen’s current party ID numbers. Rassmussen’s own model, I think is more conservative, projecting turnout from historical models and trends as much as, if not more so, than a snapshot party ID.
Nothing has changed, or it's gotten worse: Obamacare is still scheduled to kick in; the economy has not improved; gas prices continue to rise, the Federal Debt is out of control; employment remains high, taxes are going to skyrocket shortly, and we now find out our Foreign Policy is a complete MESS or non-existent .
If necessary, will crawl to my voting location on November 6th.
As one who votes my Christian convictions, I will tell you that I'm not impressed with Romney's message. His ads and his stump speeches are frankly, weak. He has so much material to work with in Obama but doesn't use it. He should be skewering the socialist narcissistic one; the one who has trashed our constitution and placed future generations into debtors prison; the one with an anti-Christian moral compass.
If Romney continues to simply "trade" with Obama in debates, ads and stump speeches - Obama will likely be re-elected - IMHO.
Unskewed is using Rassmussens current party ID numbers
That’s exactly the case.
Rasmussen has the Party ID as R+4 but he is using D+2 as a model. That’s a 6 point differential. But I trust Rasmussen to, in the end, get his model right and win the pollster sweepstakes again this year.
Enjoy playing with the numbers. Anything less than a random sample poll is, of course, something less than a random sample poll ~ and is more akin to ju ju or ouiji board!
I think the point is that a snapshot of party ID doesn’t mess up Rass’ weighting too much. If we assume that turnout will be somewhere between 2008 (D+7) and 2010 (even), but closer to 2010, then D+2 is reasonable, and is probably close to the best-case estimate for Obama.
Another question: Will the turnout and voting be similar to 2010, better for Obama or worse for Obama? I think about the same or worse for Obama. People can't wait to vote for this guy, and aren't paying attention because they made up their minds in 2010.
All rational analysis points to a Romney landslide. Is there something I'm missing in this? Am I simply refusing to see some reality that is out there?
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