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Greenfield:
Sultan Knish blog ^ | Sunday, March 02, 2014 | Daniel Greenfield

Posted on 03/03/2014 5:05:33 AM PST by Louis Foxwell

Sunday, March 02, 2014

The Coming Collapse of the Welfare State

Posted by Daniel Greenfield @ the Sultan Knish blog

In 1935, the year that FDR signed the Social Security Act into law, the birth rate was 18.7 per 1,000. In 1940, when the first monthly check was issued, it had gone up to 19.4. By 1954, when Disability had been added, the birth rate at the heart of the Baby Boom stood at 25.3.

In a nation of 163 million people, 4 million babies were being born each year.

By 1965, when Medicare was plugged in, the birth rate had fallen back to 19.4. For the first time in ten years fewer than 4 million babies had been born in a country of 195 million. Medicare had been added in the same year that saw the single biggest drop in birth rates since the Great Depression.

There could not have been a worse time for Medicare than the end of the Baby Boom.

Today in a nation of 314 million, 4.1 million babies are being born each year for a birth rate of 13.0 per 1,000. 40.7% of those births are to unmarried mothers meaning that it will be a long time, if ever, before those single families put back into the system, and most will never put back in as much as they are taking out.Those children will cost more to educate, be more likely to be involved in crime and less likely to succeed economically. But even if they weren't, the system would still be unsustainable.

Liberals and libertarians both act as if the crisis facing us can be fixed if we take more from the "wealthy elderly" or give them less. The crisis is born of demographics. It can't be fixed by targeting the elderly because they haven't been the problem in some time. It's the same crisis being faced by countries as diverse as Russia and Japan. The difference is that Russia is autocratic and has little concern for its people while Japan shuns immigration and has a political system dominated by the elderly.

The United States however takes in a million immigrants a year who also take out more than they put in. In his 2013 State of the Union address, Barack Obama praised Desiline Victor, a 102-year-old Haitian woman who moved to the United States at the age of 79 and doesn't speak English, but did spend hours waiting in line in Florida to vote for Obama.

Between 1990 and 2010, the number of immigrants over 65 doubled from 2.7 million to 5 million. 25 percent of these senior immigrants were over 80. Desiline Victor wasn't an outlier. Elderly immigrants are also much more likely to become citizens, in part because the requirements for them are lower. Many, like Victor, don't even have to learn English to be able to stand in line and vote.

15 percent of senior immigrants come from Mexico largely as a result of family unification programs. If amnesty for illegal aliens goes through, before long the country will be on the hook not just for twelve million illegal aliens, but also for their grandparents.

The welfare state has been spending more money with an unsustainable demographic imbalance. There are fewer working families supporting more elderly, immigrants and broken families. The Russians invest money into increasing the native birth rate. Instead we fund Planned Parenthood because liberal economic eugenics dictates that we should extract "full value" from working women as a tax base to subsidize the welfare state while discarding the next generation.

The "modern" system that we have adopted with its low birth rates, late marriages, working parents, high social spending and retirement benefits is at odds with itself. We can have low birth rates, deficit spending or Social Security; but there is no possible way that we can have all three.

And yet we have all three. 

Instead of forming a comprehensive picture, our approach is to tackle each problem as if were wholly separate from everything else. Working parents are applauded because they swell out the tax base in the short term. Young immigrants are applauded because they are supposed to swell out the lower part of the demographic imbalance. Manufacturing jobs are cast aside for modern jobs. The long term consequences of each step is ignored.

In the European model that we have adopted, men and women are supposed to spend their twenties being educated and their thirties having two children. These Johns and Julias will work in some appropriately "modern" field building apps, designing environmentally sustainable cribs for the few children being born or teaching new immigrants to speak enough English to vote. Then they plan to retire on money that doesn't actually exist because they are still paying off their student loans.

The reality is that John and Julia begin their marriage with tens of thousands in debts, only one of them will work full time, while the other balances part time work, and they will do all this while being expected to support social services for new immigrants and a native working class displaced by the outsourcing of manufacturing jobs, not to mention the elderly and the entire bureaucracy that has grown around them. If John and Julia are lucky, they will find work in a technology field that is still growing, or, more likely they will pry their way into the social services bureaucracy which will keep on paying them and cover their benefits until the national bankruptcy finally arrives.

John and Julia are Obama voters. They have two children. They don't worry about the future. The future to them seems to be a bright and modern thing overseen by experts and meticulously planned out in every detail. The only dark clouds on their horizon are the Republicans and the Great Unwashed in the Red States who are resisting the future by clinging to their guns and bibles.

In this post-work and post-poverty economy, those most likely to have children are also least likely to work or to be able to afford to have those children.

Birth rates for women on welfare are three times higher than for those who are not on welfare. Within a single year, the census survey found that unmarried women had twice as high a birth rate as married women. These demographics help perpetuate poverty and feed a welfare death spiral in which more money has to be spent on social services for a less productive tax base.

Children raised on welfare are far more likely to end up on welfare than the children of working families.

Fertility rates fall sharply above the $50,000 income line and with a graduate degree; that has ominous implications in a country whose socio-economic mobility rates continue to fall. There are a number of factors responsible, but one simple factor is that work ethics and skills are no longer being passed down to a growing percentage of the population.

Liberal activists still talk as if we can afford any level of social service expenditures if we raise taxes on the rich, but workers can't be created by raising taxes. The issue isn't "investing more in education" which is the liberal solution for everything including the imminent heat death of the universe.

It's liberalism.

Everything that the left has done, from breaking up the family to driving out manufacturing industries to promoting Third World immigration has made its own spending completely unsustainable. On a social level alone, we don't have the people we need to pay the bills. And at the rate we are going, we will only run up more bills that our demographics and our culture can no longer cash.

By 2031, nearly a century after the Social Security Act, an estimated 75 million baby boomers will have retired. Aside from the demographic disparity in worker ages is a subtler disparity in worker productivity and independence as senior citizens are left chasing social spending dollars that are increasingly going to a younger population. ObamaCare with its Medicare Advantage cuts was a bellwether of the shift in health care spending from seniors to the welfare population.

14 million people are now on Disability or 1 in 4 adults. That means that there are more people on Disability than there were people in the country during the War of 1812. Half of those on Disability are claiming back problems or mental problems. There are over a million children on Disability and the program is packed with younger recipients who are substituting it for welfare.

Increasing welfare is only a form of Death Panel economic triage that doesn't compensate for the lack
of productive workers. It's easy to model Obamerica as Detroit, a country with a huge indigent welfare population and a small wealthy tax base. The model doesn't work in Detroit and it's flailing in New York, California and every city and state where it's been tried.

After a century of misery, the left still hasn’t learned that there is no substitute for the middle class. It’s not just running out of money, it’s running out of people.

The welfare state is bankrupt and doesn't know it yet. Reality hasn't caught up with the numbers. Instead the welfare state is floating on loans based on past productivity, old infrastructure and a diminishing productive population whose technological industries employ fewer people and don't require their physical presence in the United States.

The welfare state has no future. It is only a question of what terms it will implode on and what will happen to the social welfare political infrastructure when it does. The violence in Venezuela and the slow death of Detroit give us insights into the coming collapse of the welfare state.


TOPICS: Government; History; Politics; Religion
KEYWORDS: aliens; debt; ebt; greenfield; illegals; immigration; spending; sultanknish; welfare

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Lou

1 posted on 03/03/2014 5:05:34 AM PST by Louis Foxwell
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To: daisy mae for the usa; AdvisorB; wizardoz; free-in-nyc; Vendome; Georgia Girl 2; blaveda; ...

It is not a question of whether the left will be destroyed it is simply a matter of when. Will utopian statism be destroyed by its own inevitability or will its reign of destruction be ended by a citizenry fed up with totalitarian fascism? The answer is in the wind.

2 posted on 03/03/2014 5:14:39 AM PST by Louis Foxwell (This is a wake up call. Join the Sultan Knish ping list.)
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To: Louis Foxwell

Great article.


3 posted on 03/03/2014 5:28:46 AM PST by Nervous Tick (Without GOD, men get what they deserve.)
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To: Louis Foxwell

>> The welfare state has no future. It is only a question of what terms it will implode on and what will happen to the social welfare political infrastructure when it does.

I see basically four possible “end games”:

1) Currency depreciation of some sort
2) Default
3) Wealth tax
4) Christian revival on a massive scale

I am praying for 4. It seems not possible with men but all things are possible with GOD.

If I were a betting man, though, I’d probably bet on 3. For a welfare state on the edge of bankruptcy it’s irresistible to “fix” the problem in one move by helping themselves to 25%-40% of the 50 or so trillion dollars in household wealth.

Of course, that won’t really “fix” the problem but they will convince themselves it will.


4 posted on 03/03/2014 5:37:16 AM PST by Nervous Tick (Without GOD, men get what they deserve.)
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To: Louis Foxwell

That is a very good article.

Anyone with half a brain can see that the current situation is unsustainable. Unfortunately, all liberals and nearly all politicians have only 45% of a brain.


5 posted on 03/03/2014 5:38:45 AM PST by exDemMom (Current visual of the hole the US continues to dig itself into: http://www.usdebtclock.org/)
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To: Louis Foxwell
It is not a question of whether the left will be destroyed it is simply a matter of when.

You're assuming it CAN be destroyed.

6 posted on 03/03/2014 5:43:32 AM PST by Old Sarge (TINVOWOOT: There Is No Voting Our Way Out Of This)
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To: Louis Foxwell

bump


7 posted on 03/03/2014 5:44:08 AM PST by Mike Darancette (Do The Math)
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The 2nd Quarter FReepathon Starts April 1st


Click The Pic To Donate

Donate And Finish The 1st

8 posted on 03/03/2014 5:54:23 AM PST by DJ MacWoW (The Fed Gov is not one ring to rule them all)
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To: Louis Foxwell
Remember, however, Daniel is managing a blog at some personal expense.

Blogger is a free service.

Copyright © 2009 Sultan Knish, Powered by Blogger

9 posted on 03/03/2014 5:54:26 AM PST by humblegunner
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To: Louis Foxwell
The welfare state has no future.

The socialist state has a tremendous future. TOTALITARIANISM. Witness current events.

“After the two Roosevelts, America was no longer an essentially capitalist country with a sprinkling of controls. Nor was it a socialist country. It was, and still is, a modern “mixed economy,” with the philosophic base and the political future that this implies. In a mixed economy, one of the two elements gradually withers away. That element is not the state.”

from 1982, The Ominous Parallels - The End of Freedom in America - Leonard Peikoff

10 posted on 03/03/2014 5:59:57 AM PST by PGalt
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To: Louis Foxwell

An economy based on debt issued by parasitic governments can’t last too much longer.


11 posted on 03/03/2014 5:59:59 AM PST by x_plus_one (The harvest is great but the workers are few. Salman Rushdie is still in hiding.)
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To: Louis Foxwell

So, in summary:

Socialism works until it runs out of other people’s money.

Dysfunctional, single parent families don’t produce productive, tax-paying members of society.

Immigration is a burden on the welfare state.

(My observation) Abortion is wiping out the generational support structures of the welfare state.

Welfare recipients are self-perpetuating and never escape the system.

Obamacare and its death panels are seen by the progressive left as one of the solutions to senior citizens milking the system.


12 posted on 03/03/2014 6:13:24 AM PST by GreenAccord (Bacon Akbar)
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To: Louis Foxwell

The best thing about the end of the domestic welfare state will be the corresponding death of the global welfare state-all our “allies” who get free and subsidized national defense from the blood and money of Americans. The US voters will never abide the loss of domestic entitlements without the end of foreign entitlements.


13 posted on 03/03/2014 6:15:29 AM PST by Colonel Kangaroo
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To: PatriotGirl827

for later reading........


14 posted on 03/03/2014 6:39:57 AM PST by PatriotGirl827 (O Mary, conceived without sin, pray for us who have recourse to thee)
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To: Louis Foxwell
The crisis is born of demographics...

Great article, but on this point he is mistaken.

SS is a Ponzi scheme. They are unstable and unsustainable by definition.

15 posted on 03/03/2014 7:04:01 AM PST by gogeo (If you are Tea Party, the Republican Party does not want you.)
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To: Louis Foxwell
Liberals and libertarians both act as if the crisis facing us can be fixed if we take more from the "wealthy elderly" or give them less.

I wasn't aware looting was a libertarian goal. Huh. We have a lot of small-'l' libertarians on the forum, any care to help me out here?

It's easy to see why the "elderly" would be a target for the left's looting: They have the least mobility, both physical and economic. By the time you're past 65 or so, your options for saving have dwindled dramatically, making you an easy target for theft.

16 posted on 03/03/2014 7:43:36 AM PST by Cyber Liberty (H.L. Mencken: "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.")
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To: Louis Foxwell

They thought they were just aborting babies, but they were actually sticking the scissors into the skull of their own socialist dream.


17 posted on 03/03/2014 9:18:10 AM PST by dead (I've got my eye out for Mullah Omar.)
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To: Cyber Liberty
I wasn't aware looting was a libertarian goal. Huh. We have a lot of small-'l' libertarians on the forum, any care to help me out here?

I'm pretty libertarian leaning and the last thing on my mind is raising taxes on anybody anywhere.

Shrink the size and influence of the federal government by 90% or more. That's what I want. You don't do that by raising taxes on anybody ever.

18 posted on 03/03/2014 9:26:40 AM PST by dead (I've got my eye out for Mullah Omar.)
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To: dead
I'm pretty libertarian leaning and the last thing on my mind is raising taxes on anybody anywhere.

That's pretty much where I sit on the spectrum as well. I'm not sure I understand where the otherwise reliable Greenfield got his opinion about libertarians wanting to loot Grandpa.

Taxes = slavery.

19 posted on 03/03/2014 10:04:05 AM PST by Cyber Liberty (H.L. Mencken: "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.")
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To: Mike Darancette

bump


20 posted on 03/03/2014 12:07:19 PM PST by Mike Darancette (Do The Math)
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To: Liz; sickoflibs
Everything that the left has done, from breaking up the family to driving out manufacturing industries to promoting Third World immigration has made its own spending completely unsustainable.

ping

21 posted on 03/03/2014 3:32:56 PM PST by GOPJ ("Putin's playing chess ... we’re playing marbles" - - Mike Rogers, R-Mich)
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To: GOPJ; Liz

If Dems had their way they would just raise taxes and they did in CA and Maryland.


22 posted on 03/03/2014 3:45:28 PM PST by sickoflibs (Obama : 'You can keep your doctor if you want. I never tell a lie ')
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To: ProgressingAmerica; Jack Black

ping to Daniel Greenfield article that is right in line with progressive-ism and the altering of America.


23 posted on 03/03/2014 4:12:01 PM PST by Tainan (Cogito, ergo conservatus sum -- "The Taliban is inside the building")
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To: humblegunner

Blogging, especially of the quality of Daniel Greenfield, takes lots of time and effort.

Time and effort are equivalent to money.


24 posted on 03/03/2014 5:33:35 PM PST by marktwain (The old media must die for the Republic to live. Long live the new media!)
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To: marktwain
Blogging, especially of the quality of Daniel Greenfield, takes lots of time and effort.

Send him some change then.

Don't ask me to support someone's vanity.

25 posted on 03/03/2014 5:53:10 PM PST by humblegunner
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