Call him David Very Jolly.
Posted on 03/12/2014 1:07:16 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
Republican David Jolly defeated Democrat Alex Sink in the special election to fill Florida’s 13th district on Tuesday night, delivering a stinging blow to Democrats that underscores their vulnerability to ObamaCare attacks.
With all precincts reporting, Jolly topped Sink 48.4 percent to 46.5 percent, winning by 3,417 votes. Libertarian Lucas Overby took nearly 5 percent of the vote.
Sink’s loss in the race to succeed the late Rep. Bill Young (R-Fla.) was seen by Republicans as evidence the political winds are blowing hard against Democrats in their uphill pursuit of the 17 seats they’ll need to take back the House.
“Tonight, one of Nancy Pelosi’s most prized candidates was ultimately brought down because of her unwavering support for ObamaCare, and that should be a loud warning for other Democrats running coast to coast," National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Greg Walden (Ore.) said in a statement.
A swing district held by a Republican but won by President Obama in 2012, Florida’s 13th district is exactly the playing field Democrats need to win in this cycle to be successful. Democrats pointed out that the special election turnout would always trend GOP, and they downplayed their loss on Tuesday evening.
“Democrats will fight for FL-13 in the midterm, when the electorate is far less heavily tilted toward Republicans. Despite those millions from Republican outside groups, they underperformed because the only message they offered voters – repealing the ACA – is out of touch and failed to bring them even close to their historically wide margins," said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel (N.Y.).
Sink said in a statement that she had congratulated Jolly and wished him “the best success” in representing the district in Congress.
She said that while the outcome wasn’t what she had hoped, she’s “proud of the race we have run,” and grateful to her supporters — and left the door open to future political activity, though she gave no indication of what that might be.
“My life has always been shaped by a deep commitment to service and problem solving, and I look forward to finding new ways and new avenues to continue practicing these values in pursuit of doing good for our community, our state and our country,” she said.
While Democrats are not expected to contend for the House majority, the loss will add to the party’s worries about losing the Senate.
And it provided proof for Republicans that their current strategy — to hammer vulnerable Democrats and Democratic candidates on the healthcare law — remains sound. Jolly had been seen as a flawed candidate, so his victory will only increase the GOP’s confidence in November.
Groups backing Jolly spent $4.9 million on television, mail and web attacks hammering that message home.
“Canceled health plans, higher premiums, Medicare cuts, people losing their doctors, a disaster for families and seniors,” says the narrator in one ad hitting Sink, launched by the Chamber of Commerce.
Democratic groups fought back, however, spending $3.7 million on the race to make their own argument on the health care law and hammer Jolly for his lobbying background and issues important to senior voters, like Social Security.
Sink’s rebuttal on the health care law is one Democrats believe will translate in races nationwide: They’re the party that wants to fix the law, rather than repeal it and go back to the lawlessness of the health care system before reform.
They point to polling that shows a majority of Americans would prefer lawmakers fix the law rather than throw it out entirely as evidence they’re on the right side of the issue.
But Jolly’s win may indicate that message may not be enough to answer Republican attacks.
Still, even as Republicans paint the race as a bellwether for their chances in other competitive districts this cycle, unique circumstances in Florida’s 13th make it an imperfect testing ground for the parties’ respective narratives.
The special election electorate was long expected to heavily favor Republicans, which Democrats were pointing to before Election Day as evidence of the difficult task they faced. Though the district went for Obama in 2008 and 2012, it did so narrowly, and was held for three decades by the late Rep. Bill Young (R ).
And Sink, though considered a top-tier candidate, was also known for her difficulty with retail campaigning and an occasional awkwardness in answering unscripted questions that more than once drew her campaign off-message.
It’s hard to see Jolly’s win as less than evidence that Democrats still face a turnout problem and difficulties with ObamaCare this cycle, however, as he was a deeply flawed candidate with a nightmare background as a lobbyist that made easy fodder for Democratic attack ads.
The race also appears to have been a testing ground for new rules and tactics from Republican groups, as much as it was one for the respective parties’ messages.
The Republican National Committee issued a release touting its coordination with the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Florida GOP, outlining a number of new tech and data tools it implemented in the race, including a “new voter scoring tool to find the right voters,” a “new canvassing app to gather data” and a new interface that allowed volunteers to share data in real time.
RNC spokeswoman Kirsten Kukowski said those tools are all things “we will be replicating across the country in Senate races” this cycle.
Republicans had notorious trouble keeping up with President Obama’s groundbreaking tech and data operation in the 2012 elections, and they’ve pledged to catch up to Democrats’ advantage on that front in time for 2016.
It’s unclear how instrumental those new data tools were in delivering a win to Jolly.
Still, by my calculations, even the "official" money comes out to over $47 per vote. For that kind of money, we would be way ahead by buying a nice 750ml bottle of Johnny Walker for every "brother" who didn't show up to vote.
These “free thinking” Paul supporters are the conflicted wing of conservative voters. These “Paulbots” as you call them, are a political hybrid between liberals and conservatives - more liberal than conservative. They are opportunists, willing to do whatever is necessary to win. They were taught history by liberals, though their instincts correctly tell them conservatism works. Many are arrogant (believing themselves pure) and in your face (entitled), while ignorant of (and not willing to do the hard work to learn) history. The Left couldn’t have arranged a better way to splinter the opposition’s vote.
After saying (in a 2011 campaign ad) that he had stood with Ronald Reagan, Ron Paul’s 1987 letter resigning from the Republican Party was revisited.
http://theiowarepublican.com/2011/ron-paul%E2%80%99s-reagan-revisionism/
So Jolly’s ads simply pointed out the truth while the democrat ads had to lie (”He’s trying to destroy social security!”), the libertarian took thousands more votes than is usual, and they still lost. Heh
OMINOUS
She said that while the outcome wasn’t what she had hoped, she’s “proud of the race we have run,” and grateful to her supporters — and left the door open to future political activity, though she gave no indication of what that might be.
“My life has always been shaped by a deep commitment to service and problem solving, and I look forward to finding new ways and new avenues to continue practicing these values in pursuit of doing good for our community, our state and our country,” she said.
Translation: we don't control the county elections office yet enough to create the bags of ballots needed to put us over the top, but that will change.
BAD
It’s hard to see Jolly’s win as less than evidence that Democrats still face a turnout problem and difficulties with ObamaCare this cycle, however, as he was a deeply flawed candidate with a nightmare background as a lobbyist that made easy fodder for Democratic attack ads.
Jolly is in Boehner's camp, now a member of the GOPe who own him with the near $5 million they sunk into his campaign and yet he did not win a majority and the margin was just under 2%.
This is not good news for Tea Party conservatives as Jolly who is adapted to feed at the GOPe pig's trough inside the Beltway will vote the way his masters tell him to vote. He will be a 'yes' for amnesty and other assorted horrors that Boehnor hides in his pocket.
NECESSARY
Tea Party conservatives must oust Boehner at the earliest opportunity and take control of the Speakership. Then members of Boehner's camp will follow the new Speaker and conservative line votes will become the norm. However, the gluttony that GOPe branded members are accustomed to must end as drastic spending cuts, real cuts take hold. Pigs such as Jolly must be transformed into hungry cougars capable of stalking prey for months or years with minimal food,
The Tea Party activist network in each congressional district must continue to be filled with passionate people that are willing to donate every spare moment to get out the vote. Candidates selected for Tea Party promotion must be so well vetted that a war chest of less than a million would win in a district such as Jolly's with a landslide majority.
Enough already of the GOPe selection and backing of miserable risky candidates such as Jolly.
Nail-Hammer; Spot On. Well done.
See my Post #24.
Is this the cathartic moment when the realization sets in that Obamacare has destroyed the Democratic Party? Should be.
2014 is going to be another 2010, it is now apparent. Harry Reid will be forced to allow a vote now to deal with the ACA, the dem senators will demand it. The message here is that either they deal with it now, or they’re going down. All of them.
Pass the popcorn...
This piece in the Dec 31, 2013 issue of National Review is remarkable. You can substitute “libertarian” for the author’s experiences with British elites (and later even though he went through his liberal stage as a youth, he never lost his affinity for freedom, liberty and the United States). It was his study of American history that sealed the deal.
“My American Dream”
Discovering the U.S. Constitution, the Declaration of Independence, the Federalist and Anti-Federalist papers, and the men who, in Frederick Douglass’s immortal words, “preferred revolution to peaceful submission to bondage,” I felt as the heathens of old must have when they discovered the Bible.
By Charles C. W. Cooke
“If you hang around a British person long enough, you are practically guaranteed to hear him make a derisive quip about Americans.
In all likelihood, he won’t even notice that he’s done it. I have been at many dinner parties at which it has been baldly stated, without embarrassment or regret, that Americans are “all fat” or “all stupid,” or . . . well, you can pretty much choose your epithet at random, and I have watched with irritation as the line was met with general agreement. It is a peculiar thing that reflexive anti-Americanism is tolerated in Britain and beyond to a degree that no other rudeness is. On occasion, I have tried to point this out, puckishly inquiring as to whether the speaker would make the same charge with a different nationality. “Nigerians are all stupid,” perhaps? I think not....”
https://www.nationalreview.com/nrd/articles/366731/my-american-dream
Succinct and spot on....
I never really thought of “Paulbots” as hybrids...
More of being immature conservatives...
Your post makes a lot of sense...
is this the divorced dude with the 28 year old girlfriend
Call him David Very Jolly.
yeah why can’t we get some Republican candidates with integrity
That's a good term - not fully baked, still searching.
RNC spokeswoman Kirsten Kukowski said those tools are all things “we will be replicating across the country in Senate races” this cycle.
I did notice.
Process not product.
(waiting for hysterical laughter to die down)
THE DUMBOCRAT LOSER LIST MOUNTS: Lock-stepping Democrats Feinstein, Boxer AND Pres Obama all endorsed the San Diego Democrat latino loser Alvarez (Third World pressure groups ordered to vote illegally were no-shows).
Obamacare was touted as Democrat Valhalla. As far back as 2008, at the presidential debate in Nashville, Democrat candidate Obama advanced his signature healthcare plan---ultimately enacted, by an historic straight Democrat party-line vote, into the "Affordable Care Act"
QUOTING 2008 OBAMA: "No. 1, let me just repeat, if you’ve got a health care plan that you like, you can keep it. All I’m going to do is help you to lower the premiums on it. You’ll still have choice of doctor.” Repeated over and over again---- with his promise that every American family would be saving $2500.00 on healthcare costs.
Significantly, Obamba NEVER corrected lock-stepping Democrats, all reading from the same Democrat talking points, all of them repeating the same Democrat promises---over and over again.
LOCK-STEPPING PARTY LOYALTY NOT SEEN SINCE 1930-40's ERA EUROPE Obama And the Dems marched in lockstep.....the persistent Dumbocrat drumbeat ---- in obeisance to Obama ---- kept ringing reassuringly in our ears: "If you like your plan, you can keep your plan."
SEN. BARBARA BOXER (D-CALIF): “So we Democrats want people to be able to keep the health care they have. And the answer to that is choice of plans. And in the state exchange, we’re going to have lots of different plans, and people will be able to keep the health care coverage they need and they want.” (Sen. Boxer, Press Release, 2/8/11)
SEN DIANNE FEINSTEIN (D-CALI): “I listened to the president and I believed him when he said, 'if you like your plan, you can keep your plan.' I believed he was correct. I didn't realize there were all these codicils attached to it. President Obama should never have promised that people would be able to keep their health plans. I think he was done a disservice. Someone should have stopped him and said – on his staff. There's this condition and that condition."
SEN. MARY LANDRIEU (D-La): “If you like the insurance that you have, you’ll be able to keep it.” (MSNBC’s Hardball, 12/16/09)
THEN-HOUSE MAJORITY LEADER NANCY PELOSI (Dim-CALIF): "We must pass the O-care bill so we can find out what’s in it."
The lock-stepping list goes on and on.
Jan 9, 2014 - “The Race Democrats Can’t Afford to Lose”
“.......On the other hand, since most nonpartisan handicappers and analysts have for years expected this seat to go Democratic when it became open, a Republican victory in March would likely say something about the national political environment and the inclination of district voters to send a message of dissatisfaction about the president. And that possibility should worry the White House.
The National Republican Congressional Committee would love to keep this Florida seat in the special election. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee cannot afford to lose it. Those are two very different perspectives that reflect the relative importance of this election to the two parties.”
http://blogs.rollcall.com/rothenblog/the-race-democrats-cant-afford-to-lose/
Amen.........this does not bode well for 2016 Hillary.
Florida is a scab that refuses to heal WRT Democrat's presidential ambitions---- b/c of the Gore loss to Bush over a hanging chad. The USSC was deployed due to the legal brilliance of Bush SoS James Baker---who outmaneuvered Gore's people at every turn. The Dems ploy is to count and count until they have the votes to win----the Supremes ordered the count to stop.
========================================================
I do believe Billy-Boy---paranoid over Hillary's chances--- stepped in it bigtime when he advised Obama to keep his promise---to let people keep their plans.
Now, more than ever, the electorate is focused on the blunders of Obamacare........ which preceded Hillarycare. In fact, it was 2007 Hillary Clinton who originally used the wonderfully reassuring “if you like your plan, you can keep your plan."
Hillary's 2007 campaign website was unearthed by America Rising. America's Rising found written on the website under "HILLARYCARE"---AKA Hillary’s American Health Choices Plan---the phrase: “if you have a plan you like, you keep it.”
VIDEO http://burstupdates.wordpress.com/2013/11/15/hillary-2007-if-you-like-your-plan-you-can-keep-it/
See a smiling Hillary (above) in 2007, saying: “You can keep the doctors you know and trust. You keep the insurance you have. If you have private insurance you like, nothing changes, you can keep that insurance.”
==========================================
MOMENTS TO REMEMBER In 2009, retiring Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry presciently warned that ObamaCare was setting up the Democrats for a huge 2010 midterms defeat (just like “HillaryCare” had led to a loss of 54 House seats in 1994).
Ego-driven Obama scoffed at such concerns. Berry said the president told him, “Well, the big difference here and in ’94 was you’ve got me.”
END GAME Republicans went on to win 63 House seats and six Senate seats. It was the largest swing in the House since 1938. Looks like the "difference" was Obama (/snix).
Onward.....to 2014.
Yeah-—love it-—especially when David “I’m harmless” Axelrod weighed in.
You remember Axelrod?
He was Obama’s election “genius.”
ROTFLOL.
The Brits have yet to get over losing us, and to us. Tends to sour their perspective, even though we’ve saved their bacon a number of times.
I also apply the “shoe on the other foot” technique described by Mr. Cooke. Makes for some interesting discussions.
I would agree with this, but with this sort of modifier - you will likely get some sort of COMPROMISE with the Tea Party, not the speakership.
It’s still a one-party system there, which is to say Appropriators.
It is so much easier to see Congress through that lens. Conservatives look at ideology, but what drives action in Congress is appropriations.
There has to be some middle ground, a realization that its spun too far out of control and must be remastered.
The Tea Party won’t get that their first time trying to take a gavel.
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