Skip to comments.Cruz Is a Safer General-Election Bet than Trump
Posted on 04/13/2016 9:04:53 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The conventional wisdom is that though Ted Cruz can excite the conservative-activist base of the Republican party, he cant beat Hillary Clinton in a general election. But the recent head-to-head polling tells a different story. Unless your name is George W. Bush, its tough to win 270 electoral votes without winning the popular vote. And Cruz is hanging in there against the Democratic front-runner. The RealClearPolitics average puts Clinton at 46.4 percent and Cruz at 43.9 percent; the most recent McClatchy-Marist survey has it a tie. Meanwhile, Donald Trump, the current Republican front-runner, hasnt led Clinton in any national poll since mid February, and trails her by 10.6 points in the RCP average. Democrats will contend the Texas senator is unlikeable, and scoff that about 53 percent of adults have an unfavorable opinion of Cruz . . . a charge that would carry more weight if 54 percent of adults didnt have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton. Cruz and his campaign have openly discussed a general-election strategy focused upon mobilizing conservative voters who havent turned out in recent cycles, and de-emphasizing an appeal to swing voters. Quite a few political scientists, pollsters, and analysts are skeptical that the approach can win, but what if 2016 comes down to Hillary Clinton, unloved by the Sanders-backing progressive base and distrusted by independents, against Cruz and an energized GOP base? As NR reported back in January, Cruz heads the most data-driven campaign in the GOP race, employing cutting-edge technology to profile, target, and turn out supporters. Statistical awareness permeates the culture of the operation from the candidate to his most junior aides. Based on the Cruz campaigns deft maneuvering in the delegate chase, theres some reason to believe the Texas senators claims that he can win by focusing on the little details and mobilizing previously ignored voters.
Trump also contends hell bring out new voters, winning over blue-collar independents and the old Reagan Democrats. His fans have argued that he would put a lot of traditionally Democratic states, such as New York and Michigan, back in play. But so far, theres little evidence to back up that claim; Trump trails Clinton in his home state of New York by 16 to 29 points. In the three polls in Michigan in March, Trump trailed by double digits. (Unsurprisingly, Cruz polls badly in these states, too.) Florida is one of the few states where Trump is running better against Clinton than Cruz is. Trump has enjoyed a narrow lead over Clinton in about half the recent polls there, while Clinton nurses a small but steady lead over Cruz. (For what its worth, the latest CNN poll has Cruz ahead of her by one point in Florida.)
Cruz is running surprisingly well in Ohio. The most recent NBC News/Marist poll puts Cruz ahead of Clinton by two points there, while Trump trails her by six. Quinnipiac, the only recent poll of the Buckeye State to show Trump leading Clinton, has Cruz ahead of her by three and Trump up by two. RELATED: Ted Cruz Is Surging by Design Pennsylvania is one of those states that seems to tease the GOP every election cycle, only to vote for the Democratic nominee by a comfortable margin. Winning Pennsylvanias 20 electoral votes would provide a big boost to any Republican nominee, forcing the Democrats to pick off votes on less-friendly terrain. The good news for Trump is that the most recent poll, by Fox News, has him tied in Pennsylvania. But the four preceding polls of the state showed him trailing Clinton by anywhere from three to 13 points. Fox News didnt ask about a CruzClinton matchup, but Quinnipiac has Cruz and Clinton tied in Pennsylvania, while Clinton is ahead of Trump by three.
Like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin is one of those potential swing states where Republicans have struggled to compete in recent presidential cycles. Even the presence of Paul Ryan on the ticket in 2012 only reduced Obamas margin of victory from 14 points to seven. But Cruz is running surprisingly close there; the Emerson poll puts Clinton ahead of him by three points and the Marquette University survey has them tied. The two polls put Trump behind Clinton by ten points. One of the biggest contrasts between the GOP candidates comes in Iowa. NBC News and PPP have Clinton ahead of Tump by eight points and two points respectively. The same polls put Cruz ahead of Clinton by four points and three points. Perhaps one of the strongest arguments for nominating Cruz over Trump is that it would lock up states Republicans should never have had to worry about in the first place. The controversial mogul is so repugnant to some groups of traditionally Republican-leaning voters, he would put some previously deep-red states in play.
A 28-point lead for Ted Cruz over Hillary Clinton in Utah is not particularly surprising but it is noteworthy given that Clinton actually leads Trump by two in the latest poll of this conservative stronghold, which hasnt voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1964. Democrats have dreamed of turning Arizona into a swing state for years; the Merrill poll found Clinton tied with Trump there. The same poll showed Cruz leading Clinton by six points. In Mississippi, a Mason-Dixon poll put Trump ahead of Clinton, 46 percent to 43 percent. The same poll put Cruz ahead of her, 51 percent to 40 percent. If Cruzs strategy was such a sure loser, so devoid of appeal to anyone outside the conservative base, we might expect his head-to-head polling against Hillary Clinton to be as bad as Trumps. But in state after state, Cruz runs better than Trump against the likely Democratic nominee. Perhaps this reflects Clintons persistently high disapproval numbers, or maybe Trumps smash-mouth braggadocio makes Cruz look comparably warm and fuzzy. Either way, at this point, Cruz appears to have a legitimate shot against Clinton not a great shot, but a shot. The same cannot be said of Trump. You do the math.
2ndDivisionVet, are you paid to spam this board for Cruz?
Serious question, please respond for people to know what your role is in the Cruz campaign.
Do you receive any payment. You are certainly I think, acting very strange this campaign.
I have seen reports you are a paid person for the Cruz campaign now.
Is that true?
These guys aren’t antiTrump fanatics.
Oh, wait a minute.
He’s probably just trying to counter some of the Trump propaganda.
NR soiled themselves.
The National Review, they try so hard LOL!
Shouldn’t you disclose you’re working for the Cruz campaign?
I am completely serious.
Cruz’s campaign is using a variety of ways to influence people’s votes, other than appealing to their brains.
I would not put this beyond him, at all.
2ndDivisionVet please answer the question.
Isn't that the argument that the establishment always have for pushing one of their candidates, he polls well?
You’ve seen reports? Where? In a newspaper? On “60 Minutes”? In a blog? On the radio? At the supermarket bulletin board?
It’s incredible how everyone at that rag has gone insane. The TDS must be catching.
Please answer the question.
Lol...I think he owns the Salon, Huffpo, and Daily Beast concessions at Free Republic. All referring clicks are pennies in his bowl.
National Review? LOL!
Responding to NR bilge is just feeding the troll.
If it’s in the NR it must be true.
NR one of the many “conservative” media paid directly by Cruz superpacs. Same as Beck and Levin and many others. FEC documents can be found at FEC.gov to prove this, though I am sure Cruzers won’t search and view, preferring blissful ignorance.
If it’s in Gateway Pundit or Conservative Treehouse it must be true.
FEC docs at FEC.gov prove NR is on the payroll of Cruz superpacs. Accessible by anyone—these are public documents.
So what McCain and Romney.......
Safe bets, get you nowhere
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